jlend
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Post by jlend on Apr 30, 2020 11:28:48 GMT
Would you expect there to be different discounts across the QAA, 30DAA, 90DAA?
The January snapshot stats for the 3 separate PFs were very different in terms of unallocated cash available for future losses.
Would this make any difference to those thinking of buying or selling?
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Apr 30, 2020 11:40:22 GMT
Would you expect there to be different discounts across the QAA, 30DAA, 90DAA?
Not from my perspective, as the loan portfolio is identical across all Access Accounts. Anyone investing in P2P should be prepared to hold for the medium to long-term and not expect 'instant' access, which was never guaranteed. So 30/90 days is neither here or there.
My expectation is that the Provision funds, as in the past, will avoid paying out at all costs, so the defaulted loans will exist as Zombies until the end of time. I'll buy up Access Account parts on the secondary market, when it exists, at a value which discounts all defaulted loans as zero recovery, plus a generous discount for expected future defaults on the rest.
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jlend
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Post by jlend on Apr 30, 2020 11:44:31 GMT
Would you expect there to be different discounts across the QAA, 30DAA, 90DAA?
Not from my perspective, as the loan portfolio is identical across all Access Accounts. Anyone investing in P2P should be prepared to hold for the medium to long-term and not expect 'instant' access, which was never guaranteed. So 30/90 days is neither here or there.
My expectation is that the Provision funds, as in the past, will avoid paying out at all costs, so the defaulted loans will exist as Zombies until the end of time. I'll buy up Access Account parts on the secondary market, when it exists, at a value which discounts all defaulted loans as zero recovery, plus a generous discount for expected future defaults on the rest.
Interesting so will you simply ignore the current amount of free cash in each PF?
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Post by simons on Apr 30, 2020 11:48:38 GMT
I couldn't find any up to date PF info. The only numbers I found were 3 months out of date and the amounts in the PF seemed small relative to what they were supposed to cover even then. That to me is rather worrying. How often do they publish these numbers? They don't seem to be very forthcoming with any useful information at all at the moment.
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jlend
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Post by jlend on Apr 30, 2020 11:51:56 GMT
I couldn't find any up to date PF info. The only numbers I found were 3 months out of date and the amounts in the PF seemed small relative to what they were supposed to cover even then. That to me is rather worrying. How often do they publish these numbers? They don't seem to be very forthcoming with any useful information at all at the moment. They are only snapshots every quarter, the last one was 31st January. The is a delay publishing them of circa 2 months so I would expect 30th April snap shot to be published in June or July. It is clearly an AC judgment call how much money they ring fence for expected losses and how much Unallocated cash remains. In normal times the expectation is that there is a net contribution to the PFs from each borrower interest payment. Over time a surplus unallocated cash balance is built up in each PF. Then when issues occur on specific loans, AC can ring fence money in the PF to hopefully cover the expected loss. Unlike some other platforms, AC don't assume any future income into the PFs.
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Post by Ace on Apr 30, 2020 15:44:39 GMT
Would you expect there to be different discounts across the QAA, 30DAA, 90DAA? The January snapshot stats for the 3 separate PFs were very different in terms of unallocated cash available for future losses. Would this make any difference to those thinking of buying or selling? That's an interesting question. I had assumed that you would only be able to sell once you were in the pool. The buyer could then decide to wait for the funds to be released or transfer to an access account of their choice. If the buyer chose to wait for the funds in the pool, their pool entry date would be set to the date of purchase, putting them at the back of the queue if a proper queue was ever reinstated.
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jlend
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Post by jlend on Apr 30, 2020 16:05:22 GMT
Would you expect there to be different discounts across the QAA, 30DAA, 90DAA? The January snapshot stats for the 3 separate PFs were very different in terms of unallocated cash available for future losses. Would this make any difference to those thinking of buying or selling? That's an interesting question. I had assumed that you would only be able to sell once you were in the pool. The buyer could then decide to wait for the funds to be released or transfer to an access account of their choice. If the buyer chose to wait for the funds in the pool, their pool entry date would be set to the date of purchase, putting them at the back of the queue if a proper queue was ever reinstated. Ah interesting if the buyer could choose the account QAA, 30DAA,90DAA to which their investment went, rather than the account the buyer was in. I hadn't thought of that. AC may move a portion of the PF if that was allowed I assume. I assume while you are in the pool you get the interest rate of the underlying account currently, so could be the QAA, 30DAA or 90DAA interest rate? I assume all pool members don't get the QAA rate at the moment?
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Post by Ace on Apr 30, 2020 16:32:12 GMT
That's an interesting question. I had assumed that you would only be able to sell once you were in the pool. The buyer could then decide to wait for the funds to be released or transfer to an access account of their choice. If the buyer chose to wait for the funds in the pool, their pool entry date would be set to the date of purchase, putting them at the back of the queue if a proper queue was ever reinstated. Ah interesting if the buyer could choose the account QAA, 30DAA,90DAA to which their investment went, rather than the account the buyer was in. I hadn't thought of that. AC may move a portion of the PF if that was allowed I assume. I assume while you are in the pool you get the interest rate of the underlying account currently, so could be the QAA, 30DAA or 90DAA interest rate? I assume all pool members don't get the QAA rate at the moment? I don't think we know what rate is payed for funds in the pool. I guess we'll find out tomorrow when interest is paid. It could be argued that all funds in the pool are effectively in the QAA, its just that the access isn't quite as 'Q' as we would all like.
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jlend
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Post by jlend on Apr 30, 2020 16:36:44 GMT
Ah interesting if the buyer could choose the account QAA, 30DAA,90DAA to which their investment went, rather than the account the buyer was in. I hadn't thought of that. AC may move a portion of the PF if that was allowed I assume. I assume while you are in the pool you get the interest rate of the underlying account currently, so could be the QAA, 30DAA or 90DAA interest rate? I assume all pool members don't get the QAA rate at the moment? I don't think we know what rate is payed for funds in the pool. I guess we'll find out tomorrow when interest is paid. It could be argued that all funds in the pool are effectively in the QAA, its just that the access isn't quite as 'Q' as we would all like. From AC FAQs for the current pool: What interest rate will I receive on my 30DAA & 90DAA funds whilst they await release beyond the standard notice periods? As previously, target interest rates remain capped at 5.1% p.a. on 30DAA funds and 5.75% p.a on 90DAA funds
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Post by martinde21 on Apr 30, 2020 17:02:10 GMT
Hi
I think losses are very hard to estimate as other posters have said.
If we are speaking losses from an HMRC self assessment perspective, the categorization of a loan as a loss is dependent on AC deciding the loan is irrecoverable. I would not expect any loans to be written off by AC until all options are exhausted over say a 2 year period.
Based on this premise, losses on capital will be marginal this year and higher next year, say 20%?
Dont forget that losses can be offset against tax earned on P2P investments.
The rules for investors who are investing as companies are quite different as another poster has mentioned .
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Apr 30, 2020 18:33:24 GMT
Hi I think losses are very hard to estimate as other posters have said. If we are speaking losses from an HMRC self assessment perspective, the categorization of a loan as a loss is dependent on AC deciding the loan is irrecoverable. I would not expect any loans to be written off by AC until all options are exhausted over say a 2 year period. Based on this premise, losses on capital will be marginal this year and higher next year, say 20%? Dont forget that losses can be offset against tax on interest earned on P2P investments. The rules for investors who are investing as companies are quite different as another poster has mentioned .
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Post by crabbyoldgit on Apr 30, 2020 18:50:42 GMT
Aren't there many criteria that are essential to provide a framework for the answers being given? For example, 1. Amount of holding 2a. Whether attempting to exit or continuing to hold 2b. If exiting, what date the withdrawal request was made. 3. If exiting, whether the expectation is that the existing pooled situation will persist or whether it will switch back to the 'original' queued facility. 4. Others .... Having carefully considered all the above and other, less tangible criterion and entered them into the most appropriate modelling tool, the answer can be found hereAh NO mystic irobot has spoken , i have consulted the all seeing web orb , 92% loss , where is that 32nd floor window.
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