aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,500 
Likes: 924
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Post by aju on Feb 2, 2023 15:03:21 GMT
Mrs Aju got one £50 this month.
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Post by geofft on Feb 2, 2023 15:13:30 GMT
Just a stingy 50 quid (on £30k) for me this month. Is it my imagination, or do you never get two 'good' months in a row?  |
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
Posts: 2,808
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Post by jonno on Feb 2, 2023 16:50:54 GMT
Just a stingy 50 quid (on £30k) for me this month. Is it my imagination, or do you never get two 'good' months in a row? Some people don't get two good months in a YEAR! 
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Post by overthehill on Feb 2, 2023 17:24:20 GMT
Did I read something about the statistics showing the system favours large deposits of 50k compared to 5k and not just simple probability? 5k in an account I manage and it hasn't had a win since jan 2022 and returned only £200 in 28 months (£25 win every 3.5 months sounds a bit better actually!)
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Post by Ace on Feb 2, 2023 17:45:51 GMT
Did I read something about the statistics showing the system favours large deposits of 50k compared to 5k and not just simple probability?5k in an account I manage and it hasn't had a win since jan 2022 and returned only £200 in 28 months (£25 win every 3.5 months sounds a bit better actually!)
Yes, it's highly likely that you did read this somewhere as it's a common misconception. However, it's completely untrue.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Feb 2, 2023 18:06:48 GMT
Nil on 50K.
Where's the door
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 2, 2023 18:50:28 GMT
Did I read something about the statistics showing the system favours large deposits of 50k compared to 5k and not just simple probability? 5k in an account I manage and it hasn't had a win since jan 2022 and returned only £200 in 28 months (£25 win every 3.5 months sounds a bit better actually!)
That rate of return sounds about right. Rates were down around 1% and have only recently returned to around 3%. If you took a very rough and ready (and too generous) average annual figure of 2% over the past two years, £5k should have returned approximately £100pa, £200 total, broadly as you've seen. Most of us won't get the headline rate because of the high prizes bias, so I generally knock off 10% and would expect maybe £180 in place of £200. This is getting closer still to your actual return over 28 months. The distribution wasn't smooth, with it all coming early in the period, but the total does sound about right. PS. agent69 's holding is equivalent to 5k held for 10 months, yet just returned nil. Sorry to rub that in  but it's not completely unexpected to receive zilch in a year when holding 5k.
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 2, 2023 19:09:44 GMT
Nil on 50K.
Where's the door Surprisingly, that will happen about one month in eight. Each individual bond has probability of winning of 1/24000, so probability of losing of 23999/24000. Taking all 50,000 bonds, the probability of them all losing is (23999/24000) ^ 50000, which calculates as 0.125, or one eighth.
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Post by erniec on Feb 2, 2023 20:30:47 GMT
Still strange for me and the missus.
Wife on £50K, £100 + £25, equivalent of 3%
Me on only £25K, 2 x £100, equivalent of 9.6%.
Must be something to do with my name.
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agent69
Member of DD Central
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Post by agent69 on Feb 2, 2023 22:08:33 GMT
Nil on 50K.
Where's the door Each individual bond has probability of winning of 1/24000, so probability of losing of 23999/24000. Taking all 50,000 bonds, the probability of them all losing is (23999/24000) ^ 50000, which calculates as 0.125, or one eighth. Is there some sort of insurance policy you can take out to cover the >1:8 occurrence?
Overall, I am fairly relaxed as I'm off to Tenerife tomorrow and the weather forecast looks a lot better than Devon.
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 3, 2023 0:18:05 GMT
Surprisingly, that will happen about one month in eight.Each individual bond has probability of winning of 1/24000, so probability of losing of 23999/24000. Taking all 50,000 bonds, the probability of them all losing is (23999/24000) ^ 50000, which calculates as 0.125, or one eighth. Is there some sort of insurance policy you can take out to cover the >1:8 occurrence?
Overall, I am fairly relaxed as I'm off to Tenerife tomorrow and the weather forecast looks a lot better than Devon.
Yes, indeed. Instead of blowing it all on endless holidays to the sun , set aside 1/8th of every win you receive and then pay it all back to yourself on that dry month. Have a good one. 👍
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Post by overthehill on Feb 3, 2023 9:40:00 GMT
Surprisingly, that will happen about one month in eight.Each individual bond has probability of winning of 1/24000, so probability of losing of 23999/24000. Taking all 50,000 bonds, the probability of them all losing is (23999/24000) ^ 50000, which calculates as 0.125, or one eighth. Is there some sort of insurance policy you can take out to cover the >1:8 occurrence?
Overall, I am fairly relaxed as I'm off to Tenerife tomorrow and the weather forecast looks a lot better than Devon.
The Sun thinks Mount Teide is waking from a dormant state so no need to check any further with scientists. That'll be a volcano eruption and next months premium bond draw to worry about on your holiday.
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agent69
Member of DD Central
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Post by agent69 on Feb 3, 2023 20:08:04 GMT
Is there some sort of insurance policy you can take out to cover the >1:8 occurrence?
Overall, I am fairly relaxed as I'm off to Tenerife tomorrow and the weather forecast looks a lot better than Devon.
The Sun thinks Mount Teide is waking from a dormant state so no need to check any further with scientists. That'll be a volcano eruption and next months premium bond draw to worry about on your holiday.
Funnily enough as we were approaching the island the pilot pointed out that you could see the top of the mountain pointing through the clouds. No signs of any activity, so I will probably be ok for the next couple of weeks.
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Post by stevepn on Feb 7, 2023 18:44:37 GMT
£125 this month, first win since November.
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Mar 2, 2023 9:09:31 GMT
2 x £100 plus 3 x £25 for me this month. Maybe things really are looking up  |
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but it's not completely unexpected to receive zilch in a year when holding 5k.
