corto
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Post by corto on May 5, 2020 20:45:13 GMT
So what's to prevent the local halfwit from standing next to as many people as possible and then thinking it's really funny to report that he has virus like symptoms (where upon the people he stood next to get a message to self isolate). Such a person should be fined
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Post by bracknellboy on May 5, 2020 20:47:34 GMT
So what's to prevent the local halfwit from standing next to as many people as possible and then thinking it's really funny to report that he has virus like symptoms (where upon the people he stood next to get a message to self isolate). Such a person should be fined Or shot ? Just saying....
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on May 5, 2020 20:54:53 GMT
Such a person should be fined Or shot ? Just saying.... Or a bath, turn them into one of the great washed.
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corto
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Post by corto on May 5, 2020 21:13:46 GMT
I just see that the UK is already place 4 regarding infections, second wrt deaths, highest new cases rate in Europe. Russia may overtake. You still making fun How funny
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Post by dan1 on May 5, 2020 21:23:41 GMT
I've not caught up with this thread but what I really want to know is what people think the likely take up rate will be? Will it get anywhere near the 60% level?
I'm dreading providing IT support on installing the app and enabling BT. Can't this be pushed to all phones in the UK? i.e. mandated as a pre-requisite for allowing access to a UK network?
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jonno
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Post by jonno on May 5, 2020 21:39:16 GMT
Such a person should be fined Or shot ? Just saying.... Nah...........too quick............just saying.
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Post by df on May 5, 2020 22:04:59 GMT
I've not caught up with this thread but what I really want to know is what people think the likely take up rate will be? Will it get anywhere near the 60% level? I'm dreading providing IT support on installing the app and enabling BT. Can't this be pushed to all phones in the UK? i.e. mandated as a pre-requisite for allowing access to a UK network? In theory it can be pushed, but in practice switching your phone off is not a difficult task, so any measures to force people to use app will be a waste of effort. I think encouragement is the only available tool. I personally wouldn't mind using it, I've nothing to hide, but I don't really visit any places since the lockdown anyway. Walked to town yesterday to collect my issue16+3% interest from Virgin (the banks are very stubborn - could have allowed for online withdrawals during the crisis), hardly any people outside... I enjoyed the walk.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 5, 2020 22:06:53 GMT
Predictions are Stockholm will have herd immunity by end of May. evidence? Rates of antibodies from population studies there, the rate the infection is spreading, and the models used by the Swedish epidemiologists studying it. Probably not peer reviewed (though very little is at the moment) and I haven't seen the data myself though. And it might be wrong as it is a prediction. The Stockholmians (if that's the word) will know by June I guess.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on May 5, 2020 22:33:03 GMT
In theory it can be pushed, but in practice switching your phone off is not a difficult task, so any measures to force people to use app will be a waste of effort. I think encouragement is the only available tool. I personally wouldn't mind using it, I've nothing to hide, but I don't really visit any places since the lockdown anyway. Walked to town yesterday to collect my issue16+3% interest from Virgin (the banks are very stubborn - could have allowed for online withdrawals during the crisis), hardly any people outside... I enjoyed the walk. BBC states you also have to set up app permissions for Bluetooth and Push notifications, and use the app if/when you get Covid19 symptoms. Certainly can't force the latter behaviour on people.
I'm not much into tin foil hattery but it's important to understand that what "we" think can be done with mobile phones is not the limit of what can be done with mobile phones. Even if you think they are "off". Do I think the government, and the Civil Service, will sit on their hands whilst mass population surveillance is enacted on the people of the UK? No. I don't. Even if I do think there are some in those orbits who might relish it. I'm far more worried about some numpty leaving a mem stick on a train. This is going to be like.... {thinking hard about an analogy or metaphor that doesn't break the forum rules} .... flies on ****. And I have far more faith in the coding and penetration abilities of the flies than I do of the NHS' abilty to fend them off.
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on May 6, 2020 0:06:04 GMT
I've not caught up with this thread but what I really want to know is what people think the likely take up rate will be? Will it get anywhere near the 60% level? I'm dreading providing IT support on installing the app and enabling BT. Can't this be pushed to all phones in the UK? i.e. mandated as a pre-requisite for allowing access to a UK network? In theory it can be pushed, but in practice switching your phone off is not a difficult task, so any measures to force people to use app will be a waste of effort. I think encouragement is the only available tool. I personally wouldn't mind using it, I've nothing to hide, but I don't really visit any places since the lockdown anyway. Walked to town yesterday to collect my issue16+3% interest from Virgin (the banks are very stubborn - could have allowed for online withdrawals during the crisis), hardly any people outside... I enjoyed the walk.
I'd like to see anyone try to push this app onto my phone. At £12.99 from Argos, I don't think it knows anything about "data", let alone the internet and apps. And the only thing it knows about "location" is that when I fill it up with electrons it can deduce that it's near a socket.
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on May 6, 2020 1:21:33 GMT
Rates of antibodies from population studies there, the rate the infection is spreading, and the models used by the Swedish epidemiologists studying it. Probably not peer reviewed (though very little is at the moment) and I haven't seen the data myself though. And it might be wrong as it is a prediction. The Stockholmians (if that's the word) will know by June I guess.
Interesting, if true. But it seems contrary to what is happening in other places. Herd immunity requires mass infection, and places with anything remotely approaching mass infection have consequently experienced overwhelmed health services and mass deaths. How is one place achieving mass infection without mass death?
I don't know what they are doing in Sweden. With the age-dependent mortality rates as they are, I just can't see how you can get the minimum 60% infection rate without incurring a far higher death toll. Are they keeping oldies locked away, and letting the young run free? If so, they might reach some theoretical level of herd immunity, only to find that it has not worked because they have created 2 distinct herds: young people (who tend to associate with young people), and old people (who tend to associate with old people). Then when you eventually let the old people out, you find their herd has no immunity, the disease rips through it, and all you've managed is to delay the catastrophic peak.
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m2btj
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Post by m2btj on May 6, 2020 7:47:13 GMT
Any truth in the rumour that the app caught Prof Neil Ferguson on the job?
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 6, 2020 7:53:41 GMT
Rates of antibodies from population studies there, the rate the infection is spreading, and the models used by the Swedish epidemiologists studying it. Probably not peer reviewed (though very little is at the moment) and I haven't seen the data myself though. And it might be wrong as it is a prediction. The Stockholmians (if that's the word) will know by June I guess.
Interesting, if true. But it seems contrary to what is happening in other places. Herd immunity requires mass infection, and places with anything remotely approaching mass infection have consequently experienced overwhelmed health services and mass deaths. How is one place achieving mass infection without mass death?
I don't know what they are doing in Sweden. With the age-dependent mortality rates as they are, I just can't see how you can get the minimum 60% infection rate without incurring a far higher death toll. Are they keeping oldies locked away, and letting the young run free? If so, they might reach some theoretical level of herd immunity, only to find that it has not worked because they have created 2 distinct herds: young people (who tend to associate with young people), and old people (who tend to associate with old people). Then when you eventually let the old people out, you find their herd has no immunity, the disease rips through it, and all you've managed is to delay the catastrophic peak.
Depends on your definition of mass death, the time frame of those deaths, and the underlying infection fatality rate for a given population. At a low IFR, 60% infection of the fit younger population over several months ought not to overwhelm the health service. But the point of herd immunity is that if you get it you protect the non-immune - so an immune younger population prevents spreading to the vulnerable non-immune elderly when you let them out again.
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on May 6, 2020 8:28:42 GMT
Interesting, if true. But it seems contrary to what is happening in other places. Herd immunity requires mass infection, and places with anything remotely approaching mass infection have consequently experienced overwhelmed health services and mass deaths. How is one place achieving mass infection without mass death?
I don't know what they are doing in Sweden. With the age-dependent mortality rates as they are, I just can't see how you can get the minimum 60% infection rate without incurring a far higher death toll. Are they keeping oldies locked away, and letting the young run free? If so, they might reach some theoretical level of herd immunity, only to find that it has not worked because they have created 2 distinct herds: young people (who tend to associate with young people), and old people (who tend to associate with old people). Then when you eventually let the old people out, you find their herd has no immunity, the disease rips through it, and all you've managed is to delay the catastrophic peak.
Depends on your definition of mass death, the time frame of those deaths, and the underlying infection fatality rate for a given population. At a low IFR, 60% infection of the fit younger population over several months ought not to overwhelm the health service. But the point of herd immunity is that if you get it you protect the non-immune - so an immune younger population prevents spreading to the vulnerable non-immune elderly when you let them out again.
I understand, but my point is that you might split the population into 2 herds.
Herd immunity is not some magic thing that happens to everyone when the infection rate of the population hits a certain number. It's simply that there aren't enough infectable people left to keep the transmission ratio above 1. Non-immune people will still get ill, and pass it on, but not enough of them to keep the virus going for long. I suggest that you can have a herd of herd-immune younger people, but as soon as the virus gets into the older herd then it will transmit through that herd unabated.
I see it as a bit like damming a river. If you built a reasonably effective dam, it can still work to stop most of the flow even if it has some holes in it. But if you create a branch from the river up-stream of the dam and route it around the dam, then all the water that takes that branch will flow just as fast as if the dam had not been there.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 6, 2020 8:38:11 GMT
Depends on your definition of mass death, the time frame of those deaths, and the underlying infection fatality rate for a given population. At a low IFR, 60% infection of the fit younger population over several months ought not to overwhelm the health service. But the point of herd immunity is that if you get it you protect the non-immune - so an immune younger population prevents spreading to the vulnerable non-immune elderly when you let them out again.
I understand, but my point is that you might split the population into 2 herds.
Herd immunity is not some magic thing that happens to everyone when the infection rate of the population hits a certain number. It's simply that there aren't enough infectable people left to keep the transmission ratio above 1. Non-immune people will still get ill, and pass it on, but not enough of them to keep the virus going for long. I suggest that you can have a herd of herd-immune younger people, but as soon as the virus gets into the older herd then it will transmit through that herd unabated.
I see it as a bit like damming a river. If you built a reasonably effective dam, it can still work to stop most of the flow even if it has some holes in it. But if you create a branch from the river up-stream of the dam and route it around the dam, then all the water that takes that branch will flow just as fast as if the dam had not been there.
Sure - I see your point - if you keep the elderly separate (eg in care homes) then if they get infected it will spread quickly. Herd immunity is supposed to mean the chances of them getting infected in the first place are tiny as the people who might infect them are immune. But a) it's not an absolute all-or-nothing thing (so we do still get occasional outbreaks of eg measles even with herd immunity from vaccination) and b) the higher the immunity in the herd, the lower the chances of those outbreaks.
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