cb25
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Post by cb25 on May 6, 2020 9:00:55 GMT
I understand, but my point is that you might split the population into 2 herds.
Herd immunity is not some magic thing that happens to everyone when the infection rate of the population hits a certain number. It's simply that there aren't enough infectable people left to keep the transmission ratio above 1. Non-immune people will still get ill, and pass it on, but not enough of them to keep the virus going for long. I suggest that you can have a herd of herd-immune younger people, but as soon as the virus gets into the older herd then it will transmit through that herd unabated.
I see it as a bit like damming a river. If you built a reasonably effective dam, it can still work to stop most of the flow even if it has some holes in it. But if you create a branch from the river up-stream of the dam and route it around the dam, then all the water that takes that branch will flow just as fast as if the dam had not been there.
Sure - I see your point - if you keep the elderly separate (eg in care homes) then if they get infected it will spread quickly. Herd immunity is supposed to mean the chances of them getting infected in the first place are tiny as the people who might infect them are immune. But a) it's not an absolute all-or-nothing thing (so we do still get occasional outbreaks of eg measles even with herd immunity from vaccination) and b) the higher the immunity in the herd, the lower the chances of those outbreaks. Stonk Imo the river analogy is flawed, as the volume of water in a river tends to be fixed (not across seasons, but on a day-to-day basis) whereas the 'volume' of a virus depends on how many people are infected. The latter depends on how many people an infected person manages to pass it on to before they self-isolate. Herd immunity is similar to test/track/trace in that both of them work to keep the R re-infection rate below 1, so the virus slowly dies out.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on May 6, 2020 9:05:46 GMT
Rates of antibodies from population studies there, the rate the infection is spreading, and the models used by the Swedish epidemiologists studying it. Probably not peer reviewed (though very little is at the moment) and I haven't seen the data myself though. And it might be wrong as it is a prediction. The Stockholmians (if that's the word) will know by June I guess.
Interesting, if true. But it seems contrary to what is happening in other places. Herd immunity requires mass infection, and places with anything remotely approaching mass infection have consequently experienced overwhelmed health services and mass deaths. How is one place achieving mass infection without mass death?
I don't know what they are doing in Sweden. With the age-dependent mortality rates as they are, I just can't see how you can get the minimum 60% infection rate without incurring a far higher death toll. Are they keeping oldies locked away, and letting the young run free? If so, they might reach some theoretical level of herd immunity, only to find that it has not worked because they have created 2 distinct herds: young people (who tend to associate with young people), and old people (who tend to associate with old people). Then when you eventually let the old people out, you find their herd has no immunity, the disease rips through it, and all you've managed is to delay the catastrophic peak.
Small percentage of BAME? Was it BAME are about 3 times more vulnerable? Which may also be why the UK and the US are so badly affected. And low levels of obesity maybe. And it doesn't seem like the elderly in Sweden are that well protected: www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/05/05/sweden-health-agency-investigates-high-coronavirus-death-toll-in-elderly-care-homes/#13a43e872324
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copacetic
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Post by copacetic on May 6, 2020 15:14:06 GMT
While I do own a tinfoil hat I don't wear it all the time. The list of data points the app is collecting seems fairly benign (i.e. no location data, no personally identifiable info, an ID broadcasted to other users that changes daily). I would additionally like to see a commitment to deletion of all data after after say 3 months to avoid potential pattern based identification, for the data to be inadmissible in courts as evidence against an app user and to make it a criminal offence to use the data for any other purpose than to alert users of potential infection or other clearly medical defined uses. Unfortunately we do have to strike a balance between privacy and practicality and getting it right now would be a useful practice run for when we eventually run into a global pandemic with an ebola-like mortality rate.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on May 6, 2020 15:33:57 GMT
While I do own a tinfoil hat I don't wear it all the time. The list of data points the app is collecting seems fairly benign (i.e. no location data, no personally identifiable info, an ID broadcasted to other users that changes daily). I would additionally like to see a commitment to deletion of all data after after say 3 months to avoid potential pattern based identification, for the data to be inadmissible in courts as evidence against an app user and to make it a criminal offence to use the data for any other purpose than to alert users of potential infection or other clearly medical defined uses. Unfortunately we do have to strike a balance between privacy and practicality and getting it right now would be a useful practice run for when we eventually run into a global pandemic with an ebola-like mortality rate.
I don't think you'd see people getting within 20 metres of each other in that case, never mind 2m, hence no need for contact tracing at all.
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2020 16:19:19 GMT
Ebola close contact. Evidence is that some numbnut will get too close. It took a lot of effort to stop Ebola, don't think the British are any brighter than those poor people.
Burning G5 masts pediatricians being mobbed and attacked in Portsmouth because they thought that pedophilia was involved Caravan driving groups who went to Cornwall 4 weeks ago
Dumb people do dumb things
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benaj
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Post by benaj on May 6, 2020 16:23:59 GMT
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shimself
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Post by shimself on May 6, 2020 18:57:41 GMT
There's a story about somebody in China who has been on the run (from a murder charge) for a few years. Because he now needs a smartphone to get into shops etc, he gave himself up
This is very big brother. I don't know if it's true, maybe it's an invention (or just cherry picked) to persuade people that big brother is a good thing, and anyone can say if you haven't done anything wrong there's nothing to fear, but I'm agin it
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2020 22:10:10 GMT
Amazing to think there are 21 people who are struggling with the moral hazard of downloading an app to their phone that enhances our chances to get out of this mess.
Stay safe and think of the front line workers who struggle with the fear of this very real illness everyday.
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macq
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Post by macq on May 7, 2020 9:18:56 GMT
Amazing to think there are 21 people who are struggling with the moral hazard of downloading an app to their phone that enhances our chances to get out of this mess. Stay safe and think of the front line workers who struggle with the fear of this very real illness everyday. Its very hard to argue with the point that if you can then do (cost or ability to use aside but that's been argued)But coming off topic its a bit like the people who do the clapping every Thursday then post on their media for self congrats followed by meeting up with friends or doing other stupid things the next day. Promise i am not making this up but have just done a shop about 6 people in front of me i watched a couple both using a smart phone who will be the first to say we got the app.The lady sneezed hopefully from hay fever and caught it in a tissue so all good - until she fold the tissue over and on her way to the bin spotted something in the bottom of their trolley and used the same tissue to wipe it off! Two wrongs don't make a right but to save lives everybody can save front line workers before even loading the app by not spitting in the street,dumping wet wipes and gloves in gutters or car parks which is very much on the increase where i live and doing 101 gross anti-social things
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keitha
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Post by keitha on May 7, 2020 9:22:59 GMT
I've not caught up with this thread but what I really want to know is what people think the likely take up rate will be? Will it get anywhere near the 60% level? I'm dreading providing IT support on installing the app and enabling BT. Can't this be pushed to all phones in the UK? i.e. mandated as a pre-requisite for allowing access to a UK network? except possibly 10% of people don't have a smartphone, and some I know who do have no data allowance because they only call and text
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keitha
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Post by keitha on May 7, 2020 9:27:09 GMT
Amazing to think there are 21 people who are struggling with the moral hazard of downloading an app to their phone that enhances our chances to get out of this mess. Stay safe and think of the front line workers who struggle with the fear of this very real illness everyday. When you have senior IT experts saying the centralised system being used is too "big brother" then that's enough to convince me. It is also the view of some legal experts that this system will breech GDPR. We already have Police over using the powers they have been given, I have to giggle most days, woman down the road from me goes out at least 3 times every day, initially she changed into a different coloured coat each time, now it's warmer it's a different outfit. Car down the road is having top box fitted as I write and suitcases being loaded in the back, so I'd guess off to caravan for bank holiday weekend.
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archie
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Post by archie on May 7, 2020 9:27:55 GMT
Amazing to think there are 21 people who are struggling with the moral hazard of downloading an app to their phone that enhances our chances to get out of this mess. Stay safe and think of the front line workers who struggle with the fear of this very real illness everyday. The poll should have split Can't and Won't into different options. I can't but that doesn't mean I wouldn't.
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on May 7, 2020 9:29:16 GMT
Amazing to think there are 21 people who are struggling with the moral hazard of downloading an app to their phone that enhances our chances to get out of this mess. Stay safe and think of the front line workers who struggle with the fear of this very real illness everyday. Its very hard to argue with the point that if you can then do (cost or ability to use aside but that's been argued)But coming off topic its a bit like the people who do the clapping every Thursday then post on their media for self congrats followed by meeting up with friends or doing other stupid things the next day. Promise i am not making this up but have just done a shop about 6 people in front of me i watched a couple both using a smart phone who will be the first to say we got the app.The lady sneezed hopefully from hay fever and caught it in a tissue so all good - until she fold the tissue over and on her way to the bin spotted something in the bottom of their trolley and used the same tissue to wipe it off! Two wrongs don't make a right but to save lives everybody can save front line workers before even loading the app by not spitting in the street,dumping wet wipes and gloves in gutters or car parks which is very much on the increase where i live and doing 101 gross anti-social things Face masks and rubber gloves does now seem to be the litter of choice currently, still makes a change from take away trays and cups. Pre-virus I would usually pick up and dispose of it in the next rubbish bin (invariably only about 100 yards/metres apart around here). I sort of struggle with the mentality behind it.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on May 7, 2020 9:32:48 GMT
Amazing to think there are 21 people who are struggling with the moral hazard of downloading an app to their phone that enhances our chances to get out of this mess. Stay safe and think of the front line workers who struggle with the fear of this very real illness everyday. The poll should have split Can't and Won't into different options. I can't but that doesn't mean I wouldn't. In retrospect, yes, I should have done that. Why can't you?
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archie
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Post by archie on May 7, 2020 9:35:31 GMT
The poll should have split Can't and Won't into different options. I can't but that doesn't mean I wouldn't. In retrospect, yes, I should have done that. Why can't you? No phone.
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