Instead I bought some more Mogo bond since it recently fell close to 80 (quote went 78 but lowest deal were like 81) while Mogo benefits from Aigars Kesenfelds smart moves of Kredo, Tigo and probably soon Zenka (source: Mors). I'll probably put some more Lendermarket too. There I observed than like 90% of the FI loans are paid early after one month, while the short-term ES and PL are late. Kinda reverse logic.
DelfinGroup Still one of my favorite LO on Mintos, and LO in general. I could get more info about their recently issued Bond: 1. It has been issued at par, 2. It's not tradable at all, the order book is empty. As stated, it's a pure institutional investment. I continue to use their 30-day 9% pawnbroking loans on Mintos for treasury yield.
IuteCredit Another LO I love. They'll publish their 2020Q3 reports soon. I've bet they would be good, and won since I could sell my bond @99.995 Yes that odd price is actually my deal I plan to buy all back once it goes down, cashing-in the difference. My current yield is super high compared to what I could get on Mintos, even after deducing the fees (which are 0.1% both way, against 0 and 0.85% on Mintos).
PlacetGroup, Robocash No opinion change, neutral. PlacetGroup is sane, but the yield is not that good and the duration system complex (long term, you can exit by dropping the accrued interest, unless they have already been paid, plus 0.5%, unless less than a week passed... ). Robocash is super simple, but still operating in countries I'd want to avoid: Vietnam (remember CashWagon), Kazakhstan...
Mogo This one... I don't know. Its bond went super low before getting better at around 80. That's a covid price, all other LO bonds rose up since. Even Ferratum is getting better than its covid situation. We got some good news like the Kredo+Tigo purchase, and they themselves bought back some of this bond. I increased my position to enjoy the low entry price, but I'm not that confident. There's such a quality difference compared to it's Mintos reign as the best rated and biggest LO.
Creditstar I did the same research as for Delfingroup, but found no info about their current bonds, just that the one that expired in June were both sold and paid back at par. I still have a positive outlook on them and enjoyed the 2% bonus. Most of my portfolio is in current status, the quality increased a lot since Q1 and their 14% yield is competitive. I think their B grade on Mintos is as underestimated as the Mogo A is overestimated.
Kviku Since it has its own P2P platform like Lendermarket, so it should be on my list. But I won't invest due to the countries it operates in. Pretty much the same reason I stopped Robocash, at least for now. Poland (Scammer LO paradise), Ukraine and Russia (countries at war), Kazakhstan, Philippines from where CashWagon failed and Robocash got kicked out... Not for me.
Credissimo With one 'm', not to be confused with credissimmo, a pun in french with immo (short for real-estate). I didn't notice at first, but they actually do have their dedicated platform too, Nexo. And while it's mostly about those crypto-blockchain-things, they still provide EUR (real EUR in and out through bank SEPA, not stablecoins) 8% yielding accounts. Ok, they advertise things that don't exist yet. No, they don't provide any Mastercard yet, nor they yield the USD or any of 40+ fiat other than EUR and GBP. And yield is 8% not 10% (the extra 2% is a bonus only if you invest in their own crypto-shitcoin, which is very off-topic for a Mintos-style investor). But in a Euro P2P world, I consider their offer eligible, since they do the same thing: borrow from us and lend to other people, guaranteeing the buyback unless they completely collapse. I plan to try. A daily-accrued saving account looks like IBAN-Wallet, but we know who and where they are (a Credisimo spin-off), what they do, how and how much they generate income, the yield is higher, they are regulated in the US and are bigger in volume than Mintos. Not bad.
Mogo ""[...] the Mogo A is overestimated."" According to both the new Mintos score and P2PExplore it looks I was right. I could dump all my mogo Bonds to some poor soul on the stock exchange @90 and now I'm out. The price spike were due to the results, less bad as the market expected, but still not good. Except for a few remnant Sebo loans on Mintos, my Mogo exposure is now zero. A least a good news is the finalized acquisition of Tego and Kredo. Considering the low rates, I no longer bet on Mogo, I can find safer positions with equivalent yield. It somehow answers the very original question of cwah: I invested in Mogo when I found it reliable, and quitted when no longer. Benefits: ~10% before tax in a few months. No need to keep faith forever, the bonds are tradable, just quit when you no longer feel things good.
Creditstar Business as usual. I stabilized my position, and reinvested the Bonus. Not the safest investment but at least their 14% yield is consistent with the risk. P2PExplore downgraded them recently, no surprise, they have a few clouds over the head, including their creative accounting and audits. My riskiest and highest yield position so far. Once again, that's just normal.
Iutecredit Grrr , their bond is still too high to let my buy it back with a reasonable gain. I invested the free cash on Nexo meanwhile, see below. Not no keep money dormant, and because Degiro applies negative rates on free cash (both EUR and USD).
Nexo So far I like them. I get my 0.021% daily (8% yearly) and as a mostly crypto place, they do a lot of AML/KYC at sign-up, then you're fine with big numbers. I had hard times registering as a legal person thus. You first have to register as an individual, then convert (?) your account into a Business one. Quite weird related to accounting rules were in no way should you mix two persons A and B, even if B is a company whose A is the sole shareholder.
Coinloan A new entry. They deserve to be on my list since they are more P2P-ish than Nexo. Merge Bondora and Nexo, and hop, you get Coinloan. Like Bondora, they provide both Mintos-style specific loans with cryptos as collateral, and a generic saving account with a fixed rate. And like Bondora, they are shady as hell. They got banned from so many currencies so far they couldn't update their documentation in time. To date they no longer allow any fiat transfer but EUR, while they allowed USD, RUB, GBP previously. No issue, since instead they let you invest not less than six (!) USD stablecoins (USDT, USDC, TUSD, PAX, DAI, BUSD, I guess GUSD got lost in translation). Jokes aside, it's like Nexo but a lot more shady. Still, compared to the average P2P-funded projects on the place, this is not the dumbest ever.
Mogo Free fall. Its normally stable 10% bond with a maturity of 4.3 months now has a price of 92 and a YTM of 32%! And the longer term 9.5% bond still has a 20% YTM. I wouldn't touch a Mogo investment with a 10 foot pole anymore. Maybe I'm pessimistic and investors with actually get their 32% YTM, but I wouldn't bet on it. In the only occurrences I invested at >20%, I lost all (Cashwagon, Varks).
DelphinGroup I'm late but they have released their Q3 report and it's kicking good. I increased a lot my position on Delfin by moving the money from Mogo and adding fresh cash. Yesterday there were no more Delfin pawn loans on Mintos. Well, that's because I bought them all.
4Finance They detached a coupon. Paid on time, no issue. This investment is super boring, which is a good point. I would have expected the price to rise closer to 100, but stable around 95 is good enough.
Iutecredit Done! I could buy my position back @96. I considered it was a fair price, with a YTM of 15.3%, close to the Mintos yield they offer.
Moves summary Bought [email protected] a few months ago, sold @90, +10% gain, money moved to Delfin and Lendermarket Bought [email protected]~85 a few months ago, sold @100, +15% gain, part of money moved to Lendermarket, got the +2% bonus. Remnant moved to Nexo. Later pulled money out of Nexo (+0.3% accrued gain)+ fresh cash to buy back Iute @96 (at a slightly lower position) Yesterday added fresh cash to Delfin
I agree the presentations from Mintos are ridiculously over-positive. Mogo results are super bad and they only emphased about the EBIDTA (which, for any finance institution is good since it contains all earns and no debt cost). They did quite the same for ID Finance.
Overall, and once again, the Mintos/P2P/LO universe is inherently high risk and high yield. When a bond nominal yield is like 13% while the EUR currency itself bears zero, so there's a good reason. Still I like to bet on them, maybe at short term only. For example I put a sell order @100 on 4Finance because despite being big, they turned non-profitable. Comparing some 20% P2P investment in obscure Mobile apps or low-cost Zombie movies and the 15% YTM offered by regulated Iute or Creditstar, I find the 1st ones ridiculous and the second ones a good bet. But that's just a personal opinion.
You can buy investment grade (BBB or better) bonds if you're afraid, just don't expect any decent yield.
USD Hoo boy. My serious portfolio is USD by an order of magnitude, and the USD/EUR pair plummeted. Despite a sweet +7% yield and zero default, adjusted for FX losses I lost big, very big. I mocked some unhedged LO which turned unprofitable due to FX, and now I feel stupid. To add an extra layer of pain, I'll have to pay for taxes on the 7% USD gain and won't be able to deduce the FX losses after. Ouch.
IuteCredit, 4Finance Nothing to declare. Iute jumped again to 100% recently but I didn't arbitrage this time, I simply hold. Both hover around 96% and that's fine.
CreditStar They now have a long Pending Payment on Mintos, even if the amount is reasonable: 1,5M. Still I don't like that. LenderMarket isn't affected (yet) but I prefer rebalance the freed cash to other places. At least they prevented me to invest more in USD by locking my money in 14% Euro loans. Let's grant them for this.
Mintos It's not directly on my list but I moved a bit toward Sun (Europe only). They are well audited, offer a good yield, provide short-term loans and have no Pending Payments. My Mintos portfolio is now 50/50 between Delfin and Sun, against a dangerous 90% Delfin previously, with the 10% being super late Mogo loans I finally trashed to the secondary market.
Mogo As explained above, my exposure is now zero.
ExploreP2P recently published a new article with a topic very close to mine, LO with their own platforms. As expected, his list is close but different from mine. Here are the differences:
He ignores Bond-but-no-platform LO like DelfinGroup
He lists some LO I simply ignore because I've no confidence at all, like Twino
He blacklists anything related to cryptos, I don't, hence why I listed Nexo or CoinLoan
Overall it's very interesting to read an uniform Mintos-LO style rating on non-Mintos LO like Robocash.
Sun Finance I was wrong from the beginning: they actually listed Bonds on Nasdaq. They are super low profile about it, and it's just 10M with 1 year maturity, and not tradable out of OTC. I couldn't even find them on Bloomberg. But a bond is a bond, so they are eligible. I'm running out of compliments for them. In addition of high yield [no more, see below], good audit and financials, they have a good loan turnover and literally zero pending payment on DK and LT (I blacklist other places), like Mintos in 2018: when a load is repaid day D, so you get the money day D, and you can reinvest it. Even Delfin pays at D+1.
Creditstar They have paid their pending payment balance in full, an impressive move in only a few days. Good for Mintos who probably used force to get the money back, and no one can blame them for this. It made little sense to have 20 days of PP for 30-day loans. So far so good. However it had had various impacts on Lendermarket:
They started to list 7-year (!) long loans which were before Mintos specific
Interest rates increased to 16.6% for short-term, and 15.1% for long-term. Classic 12% and 14% are still listed, so if you buy, prioritize those emergency loans as they have a higher yield for the same risk. Those yields are in line with the Bond YTM, just simpler to buy but less regulated.
Withdrawal delays temporarily increased to 4 days. A little higher than the advertised 3 days, but it's now back to 2 days as they owe no more to Mintos.
Creditstar They've sent a promotion email acknowledging the recent changes and the relation to Mintos, even if they don't name it explicitly, calling Mintos "Others". They summarize that some locations are specific to Lendermarket like Sweden, and that in other cases their rate are always higher than Mintos. Hence the odd rates like 16.6%: that's the Mintos 16.5% plus one tick. One thing remains exclusive to Mintos, still: the PL Zloty loans.
Sun Finance Good bye the high yield loans, new listed are down to 12%. Quite a freefall. But consistent with their quality. I continue to buy them despite the lower rate.
It looks like I was super wrong. Sun DK got caught by regulators, for similar reasons as Cashwagon. I had time to flush them into the secondary market at 98.3% of par, loosing all accrued interests but no capital. I bet Sun itself can survive this and kept my Sun Latvia loans. However I've been pretty unwise so far about my Mintos investments. I'm getting kinda tired of that, I've lost zero dollar with USD investments in the 100Ks but struggle in Euro to keep 10K invested on Mintos without capital turning at risk every 6 months.
I'm arbitraging hard toward the USD where virtually any Crypto-bank yields the USD at 7-8% with instant liquidity and almost zero risk. I'm talking about Nexo, Binance etc. No need to take position on cryptos, I don't, I just use their internal USD saving accounts traders usually use to host their uninvested cash. Same yield as Mintos, and no License revoked, Accounts frozen and other surprises.
Post by geldregiertdiewelt on Feb 16, 2021 0:15:23 GMT
Agree. Mintos kind of became the opposite of passive income: Instead of just sit and wait for the return on the money, you have to take action every other day to secure the return of the money. If they can't stop this, I doubt that they can attract enough institutional money to survive.
IuteCredit My Sell order @100 triggered. I want to buy it back @96, if it works it would be an extra +4%, otherwise it would be the end of a good story. So far so good. It's currently @102, more than its pre-covid price. I still have an high exposure on Mintos, where they are one of the last good LO there.
Lendermarket It got normalized. I reached breakeven, with the exposure equal to the interests earned so far. So even if it fails overnight, I would have lost nothing, except hope and time. I still consider them a decent risk/reward ratio in EUR.
Stikcredit I'll give a chance to their new platform Afranga (<- this link has no referral! since investor gets no bonus but all the risks so I advise you don't use any referral). The LO is decent, the risk/reward looks good because the rate is very high: 18% My new play money high-risk-high-reward platform. I'll drop a few K€ I'm ready to lose. Note the platform technically is a blatant rip-off from Mintos. It's basically Mintos web app with a red theme.
Nexo I had a very good opinion of them, despite having noticed they over-advertised products that barely existed. No, they don't let you get a Visa card and the 12% yield is possible only if you invest in crypto, not in EUR only. If you thought Mintos announcements of bad news disguised as good news were far-etched, think twice. They just announced new Fixed-term products giving an extra +4% yield (instant reaction: good!) but forgot to state the base rate of the Saving account were cut in half, down from 8% to 4%. So you now have to chose between giving up half the rewards or give up the liquidity to keep the yield. I can't see it as anything but bad news. It's still a good deal since the Fixed-term is 3-month only and 8% in EUR is unbeatable for such a strong platform (they are a Billion-dollar company). But their communication is a joke, at best.
They recreated the Mintos web app by copying their UX, rewriting the code
They copied the scripts from Mintos site and changed a few IU details such as the colors
They got a legit Mintos license, maybe obtained while negotiating their leave from the Mintos platform
In term of API, no doubt possible, since their backend were already Mintos-API compatible, and plugged to the real Mintos, they could then replug it to their pseudo-Mintos site with no change. An API is not copyrightable so it's smart and legit in all cases.
I noticed one important difference, thus: there's no Confirmation step. No intermediate basket. Once you clicked on a loan with an amount, so you invested. And since there's no secondary market, you invested to term, or until they introduce a secondary market. It's not bad, but... surprising.