|
Post by beniamino38 on Jun 15, 2020 9:20:15 GMT
I went through my Access loan book and calculated when I can expect to receive my money back through the normal course of repayments. The resulting graph is here: imgur.com/xaaKHYx . I expect other loan books will be similar, so this may be of interest to others. I made the following assumptions: * I ignored RYI and any interest * "Current" loans pay back £n/m per month where £n is the capital outstanding and m is the number of months until the end of the contract * "Existing" loans pay back nothing until the end of the contract, then are repaid in full The bottom line is that, if all goes well, one can expect about 35% back after 6 months, and 60% in a year's time. The remaining 40% will be a slow dribble over the following 4 years, unless RYI kicks in.
|
|
|
Post by saintpeter on Jul 22, 2020 19:49:19 GMT
I went through my Access loan book and calculated when I can expect to receive my money back through the normal course of repayments. The resulting graph is here: imgur.com/xaaKHYx . I expect other loan books will be similar, so this may be of interest to others. I made the following assumptions: * I ignored RYI and any interest * "Current" loans pay back £n/m per month where £n is the capital outstanding and m is the number of months until the end of the contract * "Existing" loans pay back nothing until the end of the contract, then are repaid in full The bottom line is that, if all goes well, one can expect about 35% back after 6 months, and 60% in a year's time. The remaining 40% will be a slow dribble over the following 4 years, unless RYI kicks in. Thanks. This is really useful to know.
|
|
ceejay
Posts: 971
Likes: 1,149
|
Post by ceejay on Jul 23, 2020 9:59:45 GMT
While the chart is a handy indicator for people contemplating what the outcome of a new investment might be, I would suggest that anyone with actual holdings would be a lot better off doing their own analysis of their specific portfolio, as the variations will be huge.
For example, my Access portfolio of 15 loans will be fully repaid in about 2 years from now (and therefore almost certainly before I get to the head of the RYI queue, unless something dramatic changes). My figures for amount repaid after 6 and 12 months are 46% and 73%.
One significant factor in my result is that for some reason one of my investments was fragmented across a large number of small loan parts, which of course redeem in full when they amortise down to the £10 level. It also helps that I don't have any non-amortising loans.
The bottom line is that individual results will vary widely!
|
|
|
Post by diversifier on Jul 23, 2020 10:28:11 GMT
I went through my Access loan book and calculated when I can expect to receive my money back through the normal course of repayments. The resulting graph is here: imgur.com/xaaKHYx . I expect other loan books will be similar, so this may be of interest to others. It is interesting, but unfortunately other loan books *aren’t* similar. Among Access account-holders, different people’s cashflow and maturity profiles can vary by a factor of several. Most people’s loan books consist roughly of a 1yr-like component and a 5yr-like component. That is what you are showing, which gives the very skew cashflow, with a “bonus” of a large chunk of money within the first year but then waiting a long time for the rest. Yours: 60% 1yr and 40% 5yr, and that’s great! Your average cashflow duration is 15 months or so. Mine (before I RYI’d): 40% 1yr and 60% 5yr. But the killer was that the majority of the 5-yr was over 4.5 yrs maturity. My average cashflow duration was 33 months(!), more than twice yours. I’m sure that if we were able to get a wide survey of investors, we would find people who had 80% 1yr + mostly near-maturity 5yr, who have a duration of only 7 or 8 months. Those people will *already* have got more than half their money back since March without RYI! We could also find people who had 80% 5yr mostly near beginning of loan, who will have a duration of 4 years. Access was designed without diversification. The Provision Fund was designed to cover this, but many of us forgot that the PF only covers default risk, it doesn’t average out any liquidity risk, even while it is operating normally. This single fact is what makes Access account uninvestable in my view. Two people, holding the identical same investment instrument, have underlying durations that vary by more than a factor of two, and perhaps up to a factor of five. I have plenty of ten-year+ duration stuff in my overall investment portfolio. But this account has duration which is - random, individual, opaque (I can’t know what it is before I invest, and I have to do lots of work after to find out what I bought) and continues to vary over time after I bought it.
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,486
Likes: 919
|
Post by aju on Jul 23, 2020 11:47:29 GMT
Am I the only one whose head hurts after reading this ... I never got as far as hard sums at school sometime ago If I can still dig deep enough back to the 60's
|
|
|
Post by scepticalinvestor on Jul 23, 2020 12:10:52 GMT
In hindsight, it was very naive of me to assume that Access was the same/similar to the old monthly "rolling-market" that RS first started off with many years ago, albeit with "tweaks" along the way in mid-2018 and early 2019 aimed at "simplifying" the offer. ratesetter.com/blog/simplifying-the-rolling-marketI went through my Access loan book and calculated when I can expect to receive my money back through the normal course of repayments. The resulting graph is here: imgur.com/xaaKHYx . I expect other loan books will be similar, so this may be of interest to others. It is interesting, but unfortunately other loan books *aren’t* similar. Among Access account-holders, different people’s cashflow and maturity profiles can vary by a factor of several. Most people’s loan books consist roughly of a 1yr-like component and a 5yr-like component. That is what you are showing, which gives the very skew cashflow, with a “bonus” of a large chunk of money within the first year but then waiting a long time for the rest. Yours: 60% 1yr and 40% 5yr, and that’s great! Your average cashflow duration is 15 months or so. Mine (before I RYI’d): 40% 1yr and 60% 5yr. But the killer was that the majority of the 5-yr was over 4.5 yrs maturity. My average cashflow duration was 33 months(!), more than twice yours. I’m sure that if we were able to get a wide survey of investors, we would find people who had 80% 1yr + mostly near-maturity 5yr, who have a duration of only 7 or 8 months. Those people will *already* have got more than half their money back since March without RYI! We could also find people who had 80% 5yr mostly near beginning of loan, who will have a duration of 4 years. Access was designed without diversification. The Provision Fund was designed to cover this, but many of us forgot that the PF only covers default risk, it doesn’t average out any liquidity risk, even while it is operating normally. This single fact is what makes Access account uninvestable in my view. Two people, holding the identical same investment instrument, have underlying durations that vary by more than a factor of two, and perhaps up to a factor of five. I have plenty of ten-year+ duration stuff in my overall investment portfolio. But this account has duration which is - random, individual, opaque (I can’t know what it is before I invest, and I have to do lots of work after to find out what I bought) and continues to vary over time after I bought it.
|
|
johnt
Investing in Ratesetter, Zopa and Assetz Capital since 2013
Posts: 127
Likes: 71
|
Post by johnt on Jul 23, 2020 12:51:24 GMT
I went through my Access loan book and calculated when I can expect to receive my money back through the normal course of repayments. The resulting graph is here: imgur.com/xaaKHYx . I expect other loan books will be similar, so this may be of interest to others. I made the following assumptions: * I ignored RYI and any interest * "Current" loans pay back £n/m per month where £n is the capital outstanding and m is the number of months until the end of the contract * "Existing" loans pay back nothing until the end of the contract, then are repaid in full The bottom line is that, if all goes well, one can expect about 35% back after 6 months, and 60% in a year's time. The remaining 40% will be a slow dribble over the following 4 years, unless RYI kicks in. I've just done the same and got fairly different results. In my Access loans, over the next 12 months, I should get back approximately 13% of my remaining capital, 38% after 2 years, 42% after 3 years, 47% after 4 years and obviously 100% after 5 years. That means I'll be waiting for 53% of my capital in my final year.
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,486
Likes: 919
|
Post by aju on Jul 23, 2020 13:59:10 GMT
I'm just curious I thought that once you hit the front of the queue so to speak then it took about 2 days to be sold off am I misunderstanding how the RS queue works by chance. I'm so far away from the front I think its academic but I need some sort of semblance of hope. Mind as I've said elsewhere we are not in the new products on the same scale as we are in the 1Y and even more in the 5Y. Our numbers shot down slightly quicker there that I decided to ad a tenner to them to prevent being blown out of the old products. My latest theory is that if I add £10 at the highest interest going then i'll maintain them - failing that I'll go to RS and ask them to re-instate them should I want them again in the future on the grounds they may not have wanted to remove everyone as quickly as their so-called bug has done so far (I know its wishful thinking but one has to keep ones options open at all times I feel. Edit: I've just read the start of the thread again and sadly I misunderstood what we were measuring here I now understand and the maths is not so difficult after all.
So now i know that we are dealing with current access then none of you have mentioned the basic problem that Access keeps re-lending to itself you can't turn it off!. How have you factored in the scenario of the automatic re-lending each month even if you set re-lend to the highest rate possible it's not always possible to go in every day and check - I missed some check's Monday and yesterday but thankfully nothing happened but its always a risk.
With the cwappy liquidity of Access then surely there will be a time the rates rise up and snap up your relent rates before you stop them. (That's technically how others managed to get such good rates they knew how it was functioning so everyone playing the game was gambling on how high it might reach. I had simple auto reload tools that were sitting in my left screen telling where the rates were moving to - reloading the RS market screens to see how the loans on offer were taking up funds from the borrowers/re lending funds on offer - but they worked well when I was doing this before I turned tail and put everything on sale.)
Just sitting back without taking mitigation will result in access re lending for you until you hit the front of the queue which if you have not entered the queue could be quite an unpredictable wait.
|
|
|
Post by highfire on Jul 23, 2020 14:30:16 GMT
Did similar calculation myself four months ago - my version gave:
6 Months: 19%
12 Months: 33%
24 Months: 62% 36 Months: 78% 48 Months: 94%
Fortunately, I've already had over 25% repaid. Over time have been careful to get loans matched at higher rates (mostly around 6%). It's normally a drawback that a higher proportion of these loans are repaid early, but not in this climate with being 950 'ish in the RYI queue
|
|
robski
Member of DD Central
Posts: 772
Likes: 462
|
Post by robski on Jul 23, 2020 14:43:27 GMT
I'm just curious I thought that once you hit the front of the queue so to speak then it took about 2 days to be sold off am I misunderstanding how the RS queue works by chance. I'm so far away from the front I think its academic but I need some sort of semblance of hope. Mind as I've said elsewhere we are not in the new products on the same scale as we are in the 1Y and even more in the 5Y. Our numbers shot down slightly quicker there that I decided to ad a tenner to them to prevent being blown out of the old products. My latest theory is that if I add £10 at the highest interest going then i'll maintain them - failing that I'll go to RS and ask them to re-instate them should I want them again in the future on the grounds they may not have wanted to remove everyone as quickly as their so-called bug has done so far (I know its wishful thinking but one has to keep ones options open at all times I feel. Edit: I've just read the start of the thread again and sadly I misunderstood what we were measuring here I now understand and the maths is not so difficult after all.
So now i know that we are dealing with current access then none of you have mentioned the basic problem that Access keeps re-lending to itself you can't turn it off!. How have you factored in the scenario of the automatic re-lending each month even if you set re-lend to the highest rate possible it's not always possible to go in every day and check - I missed some check's Monday and yesterday but thankfully nothing happened but its always a risk.
With the cwappy liquidity of Access then surely there will be a time the rates rise up and snap up your relent rates before you stop them. (That's technically how others managed to get such good rates they knew how it was functioning so everyone playing the game was gambling on how high it might reach. I had simple auto reload tools that were sitting in my left screen telling where the rates were moving to - reloading the RS market screens to see how the loans on offer were taking up funds from the borrowers/re lending funds on offer - but they worked well when I was doing this before I turned tail and put everything on sale.)
Just sitting back without taking mitigation will result in access re lending for you until you hit the front of the queue which if you have not entered the queue could be quite an unpredictable wait.With RS managing the queue via controlling the amounts of RYI processed I cannot imagine it ever relending if you set to max rates Its always possible I guess but I don't think its very likely at all, ie I think a Brexiteer admitting they were conned has a higher chance than rates maxing in access The big spikes in rates were usually fairly short lived and when RS was lending heavily, normally at times like weekends close to the end of the month
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,486
Likes: 919
|
Post by aju on Jul 23, 2020 14:51:19 GMT
I'm just curious I thought that once you hit the front of the queue so to speak then it took about 2 days to be sold off am I misunderstanding how the RS queue works by chance. I'm so far away from the front I think its academic but I need some sort of semblance of hope. Mind as I've said elsewhere we are not in the new products on the same scale as we are in the 1Y and even more in the 5Y. Our numbers shot down slightly quicker there that I decided to ad a tenner to them to prevent being blown out of the old products. My latest theory is that if I add £10 at the highest interest going then i'll maintain them - failing that I'll go to RS and ask them to re-instate them should I want them again in the future on the grounds they may not have wanted to remove everyone as quickly as their so-called bug has done so far (I know its wishful thinking but one has to keep ones options open at all times I feel. Edit: I've just read the start of the thread again and sadly I misunderstood what we were measuring here I now understand and the maths is not so difficult after all.
So now i know that we are dealing with current access then none of you have mentioned the basic problem that Access keeps re-lending to itself you can't turn it off!. How have you factored in the scenario of the automatic re-lending each month even if you set re-lend to the highest rate possible it's not always possible to go in every day and check - I missed some check's Monday and yesterday but thankfully nothing happened but its always a risk.
With the cwappy liquidity of Access then surely there will be a time the rates rise up and snap up your relent rates before you stop them. (That's technically how others managed to get such good rates they knew how it was functioning so everyone playing the game was gambling on how high it might reach. I had simple auto reload tools that were sitting in my left screen telling where the rates were moving to - reloading the RS market screens to see how the loans on offer were taking up funds from the borrowers/re lending funds on offer - but they worked well when I was doing this before I turned tail and put everything on sale.)
Just sitting back without taking mitigation will result in access re lending for you until you hit the front of the queue which if you have not entered the queue could be quite an unpredictable wait.With RS managing the queue via controlling the amounts of RYI processed I cannot imagine it ever relending if you set to max rates Its always possible I guess but I don't think its very likely at all, ie I think a Brexiteer admitting they were conned has a higher chance than rates maxing in access The big spikes in rates were usually fairly short lived and when RS was lending heavily, normally at times like weekends close to the end of the month Yeah, I hope you are right as I am doing this in hope I am wrong but I felt that once I knew the issues this thread was discussing I had to bring it up. Mind you setting the 1Y and 5Y today to try and maintain the accounts should the sales get a bite I was setting them and amazed at the current rates that RS thinks my money would get snapped up at and it was moving within the space of 15 minutes quite a bit at the top. I do think you are right though, in my case if all else fails and I want to come back to the 1Y and 5Y i'll ask RS where have they gone
|
|
|
Post by highfire on Jul 23, 2020 14:52:36 GMT
I'm just curious I thought that once you hit the front of the queue so to speak then it took about 2 days to be sold off am I misunderstanding how the RS queue works by chance. I'm so far away from the front I think its academic but I need some sort of semblance of hope. Mind as I've said elsewhere we are not in the new products on the same scale as we are in the 1Y and even more in the 5Y. Our numbers shot down slightly quicker there that I decided to ad a tenner to them to prevent being blown out of the old products. My latest theory is that if I add £10 at the highest interest going then i'll maintain them - failing that I'll go to RS and ask them to re-instate them should I want them again in the future on the grounds they may not have wanted to remove everyone as quickly as their so-called bug has done so far (I know its wishful thinking but one has to keep ones options open at all times I feel. Edit: I've just read the start of the thread again and sadly I misunderstood what we were measuring here I now understand and the maths is not so difficult after all.
So now i know that we are dealing with current access then none of you have mentioned the basic problem that Access keeps re-lending to itself you can't turn it off!. How have you factored in the scenario of the automatic re-lending each month even if you set re-lend to the highest rate possible it's not always possible to go in every day and check - I missed some check's Monday and yesterday but thankfully nothing happened but its always a risk.
With the cwappy liquidity of Access then surely there will be a time the rates rise up and snap up your relent rates before you stop them. (That's technically how others managed to get such good rates they knew how it was functioning so everyone playing the game was gambling on how high it might reach. I had simple auto reload tools that were sitting in my left screen telling where the rates were moving to - reloading the RS market screens to see how the loans on offer were taking up funds from the borrowers/re lending funds on offer - but they worked well when I was doing this before I turned tail and put everything on sale.)
Just sitting back without taking mitigation will result in access re lending for you until you hit the front of the queue which if you have not entered the queue could be quite an unpredictable wait.With RS managing the queue via controlling the amounts of RYI processed I cannot imagine it ever relending if you set to max rates Its always possible I guess but I don't think its very likely at all, ie I think a Brexiteer admitting they were conned has a higher chance than rates maxing in access The big spikes in rates were usually fairly short lived and when RS was lending heavily, normally at times like weekends close to the end of the month Still worried about accidentally lending at 8% - have seen Access rates climb to above 5% a couple of times, even in the last month. Now in the habbit of logging on early when I'm expecting a big repayment so I can cancel the auto-order quickly.
|
|
bt
Sir Bufton Tufton, Jean Paul Sartre Zippy, Bungle, Jeffrey Archer Andre Previn and the LSO Hello
Posts: 129
Likes: 53
|
Post by bt on Jul 23, 2020 14:58:42 GMT
I went through my Access loan book and calculated when I can expect to receive my money back through the normal course of repayments. The resulting graph is here: imgur.com/xaaKHYx . I expect other loan books will be similar, so this may be of interest to others. I made the following assumptions: * I ignored RYI and any interest * "Current" loans pay back £n/m per month where £n is the capital outstanding and m is the number of months until the end of the contract * "Existing" loans pay back nothing until the end of the contract, then are repaid in full The bottom line is that, if all goes well, one can expect about 35% back after 6 months, and 60% in a year's time. The remaining 40% will be a slow dribble over the following 4 years, unless RYI kicks in. Is there a quick way of exporting this? Under Access I have 41 pages of loans which will take forever to cut and paste. I know you can export from Total but that doesn't distinguish between new and existing contracts ?
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,486
Likes: 919
|
Post by aju on Jul 23, 2020 15:00:29 GMT
With RS managing the queue via controlling the amounts of RYI processed I cannot imagine it ever relending if you set to max rates Its always possible I guess but I don't think its very likely at all, ie I think a Brexiteer admitting they were conned has a higher chance than rates maxing in access The big spikes in rates were usually fairly short lived and when RS was lending heavily, normally at times like weekends close to the end of the month Still worried about accidentally lending at 8% - have seen Access rates climb to above 5% a couple of times, even in the last month. Now in the habbit of logging on early when I'm expecting a big repayment so I can cancel the auto-order quickly. Good strategy that I am using too, you should not be assuming the money will comes in only from your loans monthly payments or loans you know are closing. I've had quite a few borrowers repay that nearly caught me out too. I tend to go through a process first thing in the morning generally before I check my emails. I have a number of routines as I have Zopa sales to watch too. (I'm taking money out as soon as it is repaid over there although the re lending issue is not there as I have everything turned off that can be turned off. I usually will wait until Wed to take money out over there as I know it will arrive on Friday if I get it right. To combat Zopa's sluggishness I tend to use direct links to where I need to be to see wahts happened quickly.(In out in 30 seconds usually unless I need to do something) RS is much quicker system so less need for direct links.
|
|
rscal
Posts: 916
Likes: 504
|
Post by rscal on Jul 26, 2020 14:50:10 GMT
How lucky to have not used the Access product I was. It comes across as a very poor way to allocate lending with variable rates and terms but only a single capped rate for the nominal privilege of 'Access'. Ratesetter's progress reminds me of BT moving 90% of its 'Standard' customers onto an 'Option' plan in one go thus permanently crimping a small profit in the shot term at the cost of driving all the customers willing to do so to look outside for a different line provider. It's like evolution with these behemoths, they take a wrong turn and [their own] inertia does the rest. Off topic still, but it must be the divergent interests of the older workforce (closer to collecting on pension, so a 'fixed cost') and the new workforce (what's that term... 'lean' .. part of the 'Gig economy'?) which prompts this type of short-termism. And there is information asymmetry in as much as the older workers know where things might be buried and new workers are suckered in with promises of a bright tomorrow (cos, you know, who ever heard of a lying HR manager that wasn't in a box at the time?)
|
|