Poll on expected balance returns. (GS)

How much that is in your wallet now under "Remaining balance due"

I also voted 90-100%. I strongly believe GS will provide investors with all or if not most of their return for the following reasons:

1. GS have cut interest and are using the interest generated from borrowers to top up the provision fund, apparently. So this will add a considerable buffer to cater for potential defaults.

2. GS have every intention of continuing as a business but are just "exiting the p2p space" - this means they want to keep their brand which add's extra incentive to ensure investors receive as much of their investment back as possible, otherwise their reputation will be irreparably damaged.

3. The current projected default rate for 2020 is 3-4% and GS are continuing to "rebalance the loan book" - although defaults may rise, hopefully this projection is accurate and as mentioned in point number 1 the provision fund should help ensure investors remain as much of their capital as possible.

I like this "90-100%" optimism.  I would've ticked that if "in the next 12 months" wasn't part of the question. I don't know what GS loan book is.  Are the terms of all loans under 12 months?  Even if they all are short-term loans, some of them will probably fail to repay and the recoveries can take many years to crystallise. 

That would explain your reasoning of restricting this to 12 months - you misunderstand how the loans work behind the scenes. From our perspective they are rolling 30 day loans, but in reality they could be loans spanning across years. Investor money is "pooled" into said loans - once the 30 days is up, another investor steps in to take over your part of the contract.

In any case, given we've seen 20-25% spare liquidity built up over 3 months if that trend continues it would indicate a timescale of around 1-2 years. Though as df mentioned, if recovery is involved then that could extend things and GSP are permitted to extend contractual dates or obligations if it reasonably believes it will maximise returns. Also it's likely liquidity will slow down once defaults start creeping in. Hopefully further security built up in the provision fund will step in though.

From what I understand skimming around the website, most are flexible rolling loans with no maturity date set at all (i.e. company can simply keep it rolling for many years by just covering interest payments and by continuing to prove they still "match required criteria").

What I have also found on the review website is that GS can give 3 month notice for someone to return the funds and I assume this is what happened with all 116 current borrowers.

So, this means we should be able to expect the bulk of funds returned in September (i.e. all Borrowers who can return the funds, will do so by this time).

Now, this is where the "fun" begins. As per Default definition (4.4.2. Growth Street has requested full repayment, no repayment plan has been agreed or an agreed repayment plan is 90 days or more in arrears;) seams to read that close to second payment timelines, all borrowers who did not set-up alternative arrangements (or received extension) will enter "Default" stage and I fully expect we will drain the entire provision fund balance at this point, leaving with us with a small number of loans being extended and several debt collections in progress. I fully expect repayments to drop significantly after the 3rd payout in March 2021. How long would they chase bad debts before "giving up" - this is a good question, but given (4.4.3. the borrower has entered into administration, liquidation or a creditor arrangement whereby less than 100% of the debt owed will be repaid within 1 year along with Interest and fees.) I believe they may not want to spend over a year on it before writing it off and accruing more admin fees, so my current guess is that this whole process will "complete" on 15th Dec 2021 (any recoveries - if any, after this will probably be tiny and a "bonus").


My personal guess looks like this:

30% September (Given corona impact, I cannot expect more than 1/3 to have cash / ways of refinancing in time)
25% December (This may include draining entire provision fund to achieve this figure, though given timings, provision fund may not "trigger" until after the cut-off)
15% March 2021 (Recoveries)
10% June 2021 (Recoveries)
20% Loss with around 5% returned by Dec 2021

I am currently pencilling in around 15% NET loss

Yes, while I am mainly "stuck" here, I managed to pull everything from assetz before the lockdown started. Still have some money stuck on RS and it will be a looong wait to get that out as well. In general, most investors will need luck over the next year to get all the money back.

Those 2 platforms were something I have considered before Covid, but in the end decided I was pulling out of UK P2P completely (still use some EU platforms, but I am monitoring performance closely).