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Post by shanghaiscouse on Jun 24, 2020 11:52:54 GMT
I don't think anyone knows where the bodies are buried, that's the problem. The bodies are being kept alive by government life support for the time being and nobody knows what happens when that gets switched off. It is the worst time to sell your company unless you are in SERIOUS financial trouble. Have to disagree about the Metro management not being clowns, to have share price fall to only 2.5% of what it was 2 years ago takes some doing.
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Post by lingield on Jun 24, 2020 13:05:33 GMT
The dead bodies would be in the loan book, it should be fairly easy to dd that. Whilst there will be a disparity between Ratesetter's view and Metrobank's view that should just be a pricing adjustment, I also think we will get a clearer view in the July numbers. If Metrobank have a different number which is 'objectively' correct it would hard for RS to ignore that when forming their own view in the monthly update. If your previous predications of 25% are shared by Metrobank then I cannot see how RS will hold to an expected default rate of 5/6%.
I am guessing that RS are saying. say 6% and, Metrobank are saying 9% - the difference happens to be broadly the same as the mooted price.
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Post by shanghaiscouse on Jun 24, 2020 13:34:50 GMT
I think until the life support plug gets pulled in September /October, nobody has any idea what could happen. In my small family business, I am getting self employed income support, I have my only staff member on furlough, I have loan forbearance and I got a £10k grant back in April. When all that goes away not sure what will happen, maybe customers will come back but maybe not.... I don't think anyone appreciates the level of uncertainty in economy because of this massive government spending. A loan to me in RS would look OK as I always pay on time, but once these schemes run out and if customers are slow to return.....end of. That's why I think DD is impossible, but in any case it looks like they aren't buying the existing loans (presumably because that would involve dealing with 80,000 individual owners, way too much trouble) andour loans would probably end up in a legacy book to be managed by them but running down, i.e. put in a zombie warehouse.
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Post by lingield on Jun 24, 2020 14:35:58 GMT
With respect, you would be flagged if you had requested a 'forbearance' and may be also because you are self employed as well, etc. There will inevitably be some scarring as a result of this crisis, but that does not mean that everyone will scarred or that no one will be able to pay their debts. There is certainly a lot of uncertainty but liabilities do not evaporate unless things are very bad and even if things are very bad it is unlikely to be very bad for EVERYONE who has a ratesetter loan.
I have no insight into the Ratesetter loan book, but I am reasonably confident that they will have tried to set it properly because the equity holders/senior management would know that their value would evaporate if investors had to take a hair cut.
I think Metrobank are interested in the loan book, but not the bad bits. It will enable them to rapidly deployed surplus cash at a reasonably attractive rate (they would also get Ratesetter's management fee, etc).
We will see what happens shortly.
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Post by shanghaiscouse on Jun 24, 2020 16:28:28 GMT
Err, well WE own the loan book and RS only owns the bad bits! all the bad bits are legally transferred to the PF which RS owns.
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Post by bouncycastle on Jun 24, 2020 21:17:49 GMT
I don't think anyone knows where the bodies are buried, that's the problem. The bodies are being kept alive by government life support for the time being and nobody knows what happens when that gets switched off. It is the worst time to sell your company unless you are in SERIOUS financial trouble. Have to disagree about the Metro management not being clowns, to have share price fall to only 2.5% of what it was 2 years ago takes some doing. Different management team now
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Post by bouncycastle on Jun 24, 2020 21:20:49 GMT
Err, well WE own the loan book and RS only owns the bad bits! all the bad bits are legally transferred to the PF which RS owns. Not entirely true. Some of the bad stuff is still on the balance sheet as it wasn’t stuck into the PF
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Post by ruralres66 on Jun 24, 2020 21:53:50 GMT
I thought the PF was in a ring fenced independent fund- Barclays? therefore not 'owned' by RS?
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Post by shanghaiscouse on Jun 25, 2020 7:06:35 GMT
read the T&Cs.....
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coogaruk
Hello everyone! Anyone remember me?
Posts: 703
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Post by coogaruk on Jun 25, 2020 17:07:53 GMT
Err, well WE own the loan book and RS only owns the bad bits! all the bad bits are legally transferred to the PF which RS owns. RS also owns some IP (debateable as to its value but MB seems keen on it) and a pretty hefty client database.
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Post by claphamman on Jun 25, 2020 17:20:26 GMT
Worst case scenario, would it be possible for investors/depositers in RS to be offered shares in Metro bank in place of return of their funds? Metro bank is hanging on by a thread and it's business model is discredited in many informed circles, as evidenced by its continuing collapsing share price
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Post by davee39 on Jun 25, 2020 19:05:04 GMT
Worst case scenario, would it be possible for investors/depositers in RS to be offered shares in Metro bank in place of return of their funds? Metro bank is hanging on by a thread and it's business model is discredited in many informed circles, as evidenced by its continuing collapsing share price No.
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gg
Posts: 83
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Post by gg on Jun 25, 2020 19:22:27 GMT
I think the best that we could hope for is that the government ‘encourage’ a bank to save P2P investors from losing too much.
How likely that is would be anybody’s guess. My guess is that there is 5% chance that P2P will survive this crisis. And that’s why, in the words of Dragon’s Den, regretfully, I’m out.
gg
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beagle
Investor in ratesetter, funding circle, lendy (lesson learnt) and AC
Posts: 670
Likes: 322
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Post by beagle on Jun 26, 2020 9:19:48 GMT
Worst case scenario, would it be possible for investors/depositers in RS to be offered shares in Metro bank in place of return of their funds? Metro bank is hanging on by a thread and it's business model is discredited in many informed circles, as evidenced by its continuing collapsing share price sorry but no chance that will happen. why would metro return funds, underwrite the risk, and offer shares....
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tjtl
Posts: 232
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Post by tjtl on Jul 8, 2020 9:47:05 GMT
Interesting to see that Metro have appointed a new Chairman this morning; Robert Sharpe. Sharpe will know this space through his chairmanship of Honeycomb Investments (and their exposure to P2P)
After a couple of weeks of radio silence it would be good if there were a few well informed leaks in the press tomorrow commenting on the appointment which made reference to where they were with the M&A process- my working assumption was and is that the original leak was unplanned and premature, but given the passage of time that has now elapsed the respective parties should have an idea by now as to whether they want to get together or not.
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