chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 27, 2020 9:08:14 GMT
Could someone smarter than me put this table into a spreadsheet, produce a total for cols 1 and 3, for each account, and only including lines where there is a figure in both columns and produce an average rate of reduction in 2 weeks? [Moving discussion here] As aju suggested in the other thread, I'm not sure exactly what your reason is, but I think this would be more work than it's worth. Why is it you want the 'average' figure? If you want a figure more reflective of 'true' processing (excluding cancellations), you're best looking at how much the person at the very front of the queue has moved. Likewise, simply using your own figure will give you a better idea of how things are moving for you. For those behind you in the queue, it's rather irrelevant how they move. So I'm not sure what an average figure across all users on here will tell you... Also, as I posted to the new user, provided you are in the queue yourself (which I assume you are), it might be nice to provide your own queuing figures before you start asking for favours from others? (Apologies if I've missed your entry, but I cannot see it)
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aju
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Post by aju on Jul 27, 2020 9:43:53 GMT
Could someone smarter than me put this table into a spreadsheet, produce a total for cols 1 and 3, for each account, and only including lines where there is a figure in both columns and produce an average rate of reduction in 2 weeks? [Moving discussion here] As aju suggested in the other thread, I'm not sure exactly what your reason is, but I think this would be more work than it's worth. Why is it you want the 'average' figure? If you want a figure more reflective of 'true' processing (excluding cancellations), you're best looking at how much the person at the very front of the queue has moved. Likewise, simply using your own figure will give you a better idea of how things are moving for you. For those behind you in the queue, it's rather irrelevant how they move. So I'm not sure what an average figure across all users on here will tell you... Also, as I posted to the new user, provided you are in the queue yourself (which I assume you are), it might be nice to provide your own queuing figures before you start asking for favours from others? (Apologies if I've missed your entry, but I cannot see it) This is a discussion that started over here in error.
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johnt
Investing in Ratesetter, Zopa and Assetz Capital since 2013
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Post by johnt on Jul 27, 2020 12:33:01 GMT
Access moved 2 places on Saturday, 1 place Sunday and no movement today (1088 places in front of me now). Weird to see so many movements at the weekend when there's sometimes no movement at all on week days.
Looks like they do most of the Access market releasing on Tuesdays and Wednesdays looking at the past few weeks. I've not been looking at the other markets but might be interesting to compare with those if anyone's been taking a daily RIF number?
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 27, 2020 12:44:44 GMT
Access moved 2 places on Saturday, 1 place Sunday and no movement today (1088 places in front of me now). Weird to see so many movements at the weekend when there's sometimes no movement at all on week days. Looks like they do most of the Access market releasing on Tuesdays and Wednesdays looking at the past few weeks. I've not been looking at the other markets but might be interesting to compare with those if anyone's been taking a daily RIF number? Can confirm this wasn't RYI processing movement (so, likely cancellations?), as I didn't move. (Unless there are weird things happening with the queue again, like we witnessed a week or so ago.) Having watched the market data a fair amount for a little while now, a large amount of money is usually available for lending in A/P/M on Mondays (I suppose unsurprisingly, given repayments etc. delayed from the weekend). For example, this was at over £800k earlier, and has now already been matched down to £350k. As I've discussed with you and others recently, though, hard to tell how much of this is (if any) is RYI processing.
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Jul 27, 2020 14:19:09 GMT
Could someone smarter than me put this table into a spreadsheet, produce a total for cols 1 and 3, for each account, and only including lines where there is a figure in both columns and produce an average rate of reduction in 2 weeks? [Moving discussion here] As aju suggested in the other thread, I'm not sure exactly what your reason is, but I think this would be more work than it's worth. Why is it you want the 'average' figure? If you want a figure more reflective of 'true' processing (excluding cancellations), you're best looking at how much the person at the very front of the queue has moved. Likewise, simply using your own figure will give you a better idea of how things are moving for you. For those behind you in the queue, it's rather irrelevant how they move. So I'm not sure what an average figure across all users on here will tell you... Also, as I posted to the new user, provided you are in the queue yourself (which I assume you are), it might be nice to provide your own queuing figures before you start asking for favours from others? (Apologies if I've missed your entry, but I cannot see it) I just thought it would give an indication of how fast the queue was moving generally, using the data posted as a sample. I have only just found this table (in the other thread) so was not sure whether I should post "my" figures on a Monday rather than Friday. I say "my" because I no longer have funds in RS, but I am helping a relative who has early stage dementia. He wants to know when he can expect his money back and it will take some weeks to get an idea from his figures. He has only just given me access to his account and he has not got any earlier figures. Perhaps I will have a go at a spreadsheet myself, see if the old brain has enough working neurons left.
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bt
Sir Bufton Tufton, Jean Paul Sartre Zippy, Bungle, Jeffrey Archer Andre Previn and the LSO Hello
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Post by bt on Jul 27, 2020 14:32:07 GMT
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 27, 2020 14:34:07 GMT
I just thought it would give an indication of how fast the queue was moving generally, using the data posted as a sample. I have only just found this table (in the other thread) so was not sure whether I should post "my" figures on a Monday rather than Friday. I say "my" because I no longer have funds in RS, but I am helping a relative who has early stage dementia. He wants to know when he can expect his money back and it will take some weeks to get an idea from his figures. He has only just given me access to his account and he has not got any earlier figures. Perhaps I will have a go at a spreadsheet myself, see if the old brain has enough working neurons left. I would really not recommend going to the effort. If you know your relative's queue position as of today (it should not be hugely different from Friday), I would find the closest queue position of another user in the table and see how far they've moved. This will give you the best indication of how far your relative has moved. Movement in the queue is the same for everyone, apart from cancellations. The cancellations are entirely relative to your position in the queue (clearly the further back in the queue you are, the more scope there is for cancellations ahead of you). So, as mentioned in my post, anyone behind your relative in the queue is somewhat irrelevant information for you. And indeed, the same goes for those in front of your relative, (unless you happen to want to see 'real' movement (without the effect of cancellations), in which case you'd be better off looking at how far those right at the front of the queue have moved). This is why an 'average' isn't especially helpful. Hope that helps!
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 27, 2020 14:39:19 GMT
very good point - I remember regression analysis and finding it extremely difficult and completely forgotten now. However I was going to ask if RS are actually doing any RYI processing and they have given us a load of PR spin twaddle to talk up their market as if we as a forum are thick and don't have a fair few mega statistical brains as members - looks like my question has been answered - I thank you!
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 27, 2020 14:42:02 GMT
very good point - I remember regression analysis and finding it extremely difficult and completely forgotten now. However I was going to ask if RS are actually doing any RYI processing and they have given us a load of PR spin twaddle to talk up their market as if we as a forum are thick and don't have a fair few mega statistical brains as members - looks like my question has been answered - I thank you! It's always possible that RS have done absolutely no RYI processing and everyone on this forum who has claimed to receive their money is a plant 
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jul 27, 2020 14:45:48 GMT
Can see why you got to Cambridge!
I look forward to RS rebutting this very interesting and cogent comment...wonder if RS will blame the Russians!
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Jul 27, 2020 21:15:18 GMT
Movement in the queue is the same for everyone, apart from cancellations. The cancellations are entirely relative to your position in the queue (clearly the further back in the queue you are, the more scope there is for cancellations ahead of you). So, as mentioned in my post, anyone behind your relative in the queue is somewhat irrelevant information for you. And indeed, the same goes for those in front of your relative, (unless you happen to want to see 'real' movement (without the effect of cancellations), in which case you'd be better off looking at how far those right at the front of the queue have moved). This is why an 'average' isn't especially helpful. Hope that helps! Looking at the 3 latest entries for Access where figures for all 3 weeks were entered shows a fairly consistent picture of 3 1/2 to 4 years in the queue. Unless I'm missing something? 02/06/2020 408786 Access 16,384 16,286* 16,208 176 in 2 weeks so about 184 weeks 20/04/2020 398537 Access 11,367 11,318 11,266 101 in 2 weeks so about 223 weeks 18/04/2020 398306 Access 11,227 11,219 11,167 60 in 2 weeks so about 186 weeks
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 27, 2020 21:55:14 GMT
Looking at the 3 latest entries for Access where figures for all 3 weeks were entered shows a fairly consistent picture of 3 1/2 to 4 years in the queue. Unless I'm missing something? It’s highly unlikely to pan out like this for a few reasons. Firstly, the issue that’s created the queue is largely one of sentiment. While we don’t know exactly what’s going to happen with the economy, it seems fairly likely that things will be getting back to normal much sooner than that. If RS survives (see below), sentiment should improve such that we don’t have the mismatch between investment and withdrawal (especially if they can open up to new customers again). Secondly, if things really did stay bad for an extended period such that sentiment did not improve, RS would likely fold well before that time. Basically, if the amount requested to be withdrawn is as high as many of us assume it is, RS can’t actually get to the end of that queue and still be the same business (unless a very significant proportion of RYIs are cancelled or there is significant new investment) - otherwise it would have shrunk drastically and be unsustainable. The likelihood is that either things gradually improve and the queue gradually dissolves into normality, or things stay pretty bad and RS sinks. But it’s pretty much impossible for things to stay like this and RS get to the end of the queue. (Edit: This is all also complicated by the quality of RS’s loanbook and the diminishing provision fund even before this nightmare started. That doesn’t help RS’s chances unless that situation improves too.)
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Jul 28, 2020 9:26:14 GMT
Looking at the 3 latest entries for Access where figures for all 3 weeks were entered shows a fairly consistent picture of 3 1/2 to 4 years in the queue. Unless I'm missing something? It’s highly unlikely to pan out like this for a few reasons. Firstly, the issue that’s created the queue is largely one of sentiment. While we don’t know exactly what’s going to happen with the economy, it seems fairly likely that things will be getting back to normal much sooner than that. If RS survives (see below), sentiment should improve such that we don’t have the mismatch between investment and withdrawal (especially if they can open up to new customers again). Secondly, if things really did stay bad for an extended period such that sentiment did not improve, RS would likely fold well before that time. Basically, if the amount requested to be withdrawn is as high as many of us assume it is, RS can’t actually get to the end of that queue and still be the same business (unless a very significant proportion of RYIs are cancelled or there is significant new investment) - otherwise it would have shrunk drastically and be unsustainable. The likelihood is that either things gradually improve and the queue gradually dissolves into normality, or things stay pretty bad and RS sinks. But it’s pretty much impossible for things to stay like this and RS get to the end of the queue. (Edit: This is all also complicated by the quality of RS’s loanbook and the diminishing provision fund even before this nightmare started. That doesn’t help RS’s chances unless that situation improves too.) Thanks. I'm glad it's not my money. Personally I cannot envisage things ever improving to the point where new deposits match withdrawals, so the loan book being run down either by RS or their appointed agent looks most likely. Even if Metro do take them over I suspect that it will be for the systems not the loan book which I think they will allow to run down. What I am unclear about is whether those at the front of the queue are being paid in full from repayments of good loans leaving those at the back unlikely to get anything. IMO RS should only be paying out the relevant proportion of good loans repaying, and then I suppose there would be no need for a queue?
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 28, 2020 10:07:21 GMT
Thanks. I'm glad it's not my money. Personally I cannot envisage things ever improving to the point where new deposits match withdrawals, so the loan book being run down either by RS or their appointed agent looks most likely. Even if Metro do take them over I suspect that it will be for the systems not the loan book which I think they will allow to run down. What I am unclear about is whether those at the front of the queue are being paid in full from repayments of good loans leaving those at the back unlikely to get anything. IMO RS should only be paying out the relevant proportion of good loans repaying, and then I suppose there would be no need for a queue? No worries! I don't think it's impossible that sentiment improves enough to steady the ship somewhat; but it's likely to require rates going back to normal and new customers being welcomed back. But then we still have the underlying loanbook quality/provision fund issue... Re your point of confusion: RYI requests are being processed exactly as they would be normally, except that this is a slower process due to the liquidity mismatch. Essentially, it's always been the case that when you sell out, another investor is basically taking over your loans. The latter happens either with new investment or re-investment of repayments. However, repayments themselves, if they are just withdrawn by the repaid investor, do not move the queue forward (although they may take some money out of the queue if that investor had requested that money through an RYI, but now has it as a repayment). I'm not sure I entirely understand your final sentence, but it's worth remembering that RS operates under a risk-mutualisation system where it shouldn't matter what underlying loans you're invested in as to your end result. So it would be a very material change to the operation if investors received different treatment for 'good' or 'bad' loans (although, currently, any 'bad' loans are made 'good' by the provision fund). As maybe you're implying, though, if the underlying loanbook is going bad and the provision fund is dwindling, then yes those further to the back of the queue are potentially being left with a sticky situation. RS has, in part, tried to deal with this with the Stabilisation Period rate cut (the amount 'cut' is going into the provision fund to try to shore it up). It remains to be seen whether this will be enough.
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Post by freefalljunkie on Jul 28, 2020 10:11:49 GMT
Looking at the 3 latest entries for Access where figures for all 3 weeks were entered shows a fairly consistent picture of 3 1/2 to 4 years in the queue. Unless I'm missing something? It’s highly unlikely to pan out like this for a few reasons. Firstly, the issue that’s created the queue is largely one of sentiment. While we don’t know exactly what’s going to happen with the economy, it seems fairly likely that things will be getting back to normal much sooner than that. If RS survives (see below), sentiment should improve such that we don’t have the mismatch between investment and withdrawal (especially if they can open up to new customers again). Secondly, if things really did stay bad for an extended period such that sentiment did not improve, RS would likely fold well before that time. Basically, if the amount requested to be withdrawn is as high as many of us assume it is, RS can’t actually get to the end of that queue and still be the same business (unless a very significant proportion of RYIs are cancelled or there is significant new investment) - otherwise it would have shrunk drastically and be unsustainable. The likelihood is that either things gradually improve and the queue gradually dissolves into normality, or things stay pretty bad and RS sinks. But it’s pretty much impossible for things to stay like this and RS get to the end of the queue. (Edit: This is all also complicated by the quality of RS’s loanbook and the diminishing provision fund even before this nightmare started. That doesn’t help RS’s chances unless that situation improves too.) I'd agree with that analysis. Ratesetter's current position is unsustainable and they are heading for an inevitable wind down of the platform unless there is a takeover or a massive improvement in sentiment. I can't see the latter happening any time soon. I'd have thought consumer loan defaults are likely to get worse rather than better with the ending of the furlough scheme so the provision fund will continue to be under severe stress, and as long as that is the case investor returns and sentiment are highly unlikely to improve. A takeover by Metro Bank may not mean we all get our money back any quicker, but it has to be the best hope of avoiding the worst case scenario of Ratesetter going bust.
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