blender
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Post by blender on Oct 26, 2021 22:20:38 GMT
I never took much notice of the value of the stock (as mentioned in a previous thread), as should it go belly up, prior to anyone getting in there to take a true inventory the decent stock would go to the four winds leaving a load of dross which on paper is worthh X yet in reality worth next to nothing. That's my experience of the motor trade. I quite agree, and the s/h market in quality cars is good now, but it was poor in 2020. Given that the borrower had a value of (£m2.66) at the start of 2020, and then was hit by the pandemic, and now only continues because the loans have been restructured to 2025, what else could ablrate do now? It's not a strong position. Note that the balance sheet at the end of 2020 has not been shared with lenders. The trade debtors (our loans) might need to be written down a tad.
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GreenZero
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Post by GreenZero on Oct 27, 2021 8:58:33 GMT
I take your point blender. The pandemic has affected the motor trade in a number of ways. Looking at the type of car loans provided, I'm sure a number of their customers found themselves unable to pay their existing car loans and needed to re-finance, went in to default or maybe had their cars repossessed. At the same time, the demand for second hand cars remained strong, however, the number of second hand cars available was not able to meet this demand, resulting in the price of second hand cars going up. Due to the second hand car shortage and raised cost, car dealers found it difficult sourcing stock and still are. The emergence of WBAC / BCA / Cinch (in essence once company) has further reduced the availability of good second hand stock. A quick Janet and John explanaion below. A lot of the public now trade in or sell their to WBAC. WBAC send the cars to auction through their sibling company BCA where the motor trade are able to buy them. However, this group now operate another company called Cinch who sell cars directly to the public. So now any good, low milage etc cars that WBAC buy now get sold directly to Cinch to retail to the public without being offerred in to the motor trade.
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blender
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Post by blender on Oct 27, 2021 12:48:57 GMT
I do not know much about the workings of the organisations you mention, but it seems that the traditional dealers, who are the users of our finance, will not be in a good position. Our borrower, of course, is not a motor trader and has no stock, but finances the stocks of traditional motor traders. Our borrower had debtors of around £3m at end 2019, which seems to roughly equal the loans raised through abl. But we have no visibility of the quality of those debts at 2019 or after. And also no visibility of the value of stock held by those debtors at that time or after - which stock is our security. The admin note suggests that there would be a loss if abl did not allow the diminishing can to be further kicked, and instead liquidated the security (through auction). All the borrow has is the repayments from the dealers who have the stocking loans, and you wonder just how much stock (value) they actually hold. I got out of these loans a good while back - and went with Mr F. Ha ha ha!
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GreenZero
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Post by GreenZero on Oct 28, 2021 13:39:59 GMT
And now the reason for late payment is due to "a little confusion over the restrucre and payment dates"
There must be a book somewhere of 101 excuses....
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Post by df on Oct 28, 2021 19:34:30 GMT
I do not know much about the workings of the organisations you mention, but it seems that the traditional dealers, who are the users of our finance, will not be in a good position. Our borrower, of course, is not a motor trader and has no stock, but finances the stocks of traditional motor traders. Our borrower had debtors of around £3m at end 2019, which seems to roughly equal the loans raised through abl. But we have no visibility of the quality of those debts at 2019 or after. And also no visibility of the value of stock held by those debtors at that time or after - which stock is our security. The admin note suggests that there would be a loss if abl did not allow the diminishing can to be further kicked, and instead liquidated the security (through auction). All the borrow has is the repayments from the dealers who have the stocking loans, and you wonder just how much stock (value) they actually hold. I got out of these loans a good while back - and went with Mr F. Ha ha ha! I'm still in four of them. After a long wait I've started receiving some capital repayments again. Interest payments are late, but keep coming - better investment than AF atm
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Dec 3, 2021 19:03:38 GMT
Ignoring events elsewhere pending further updates......
It looks like 110 is going to be a 'no show' again today, so no doubt there will be a suitable apology when the payment does eventually arrive.
It all seems to be becoming rather predictable.
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Balder
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Post by Balder on Dec 10, 2021 17:07:22 GMT
Any speculation? From the news I thought all was going well in the second hand car world!
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GreenZero
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Post by GreenZero on Dec 10, 2021 17:07:23 GMT
So abl now intend to carry out "wholesale review of the borrower"
I wonder if this will be another company handing over part of their company shares to abl to go with their power, property and pubs portfolio
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Post by Ace on Dec 10, 2021 18:20:16 GMT
Given that the second hand car market has been booming, it could be that the borrower has indicated that they are in the process of securing cheaper funding, and that ABLrate need to protect SM sellers from loss making trades. I seem to recall that a refinance was on the cards several years ago. Can't remember if it was covid that scuppered it or something else.
Obviously other doom-ladened scenarios are also possible.
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ptr120
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Post by ptr120 on Dec 10, 2021 19:52:40 GMT
I wish I could be that confident. I seem to recall that AF has his finger in this pie too somehow. I also recall during a previous update that it had come to light that some vehicles had been sold but the finance company was not aware (echoes of MT and one of their borrowers). The borrower also has a less than 100% repayment record. Altogether, this is a sign that another series of loans is about to go bang.
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blueblazer
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Post by blueblazer on Dec 10, 2021 22:35:18 GMT
Altogether, this is a sign that another series of loans is about to go bang.
It is hard to remain positive with all the recent events.
With the secondary market down to just 20 loans and having seen what has happened with other now defunct platforms the pessimism is rapidly overtaking any remaining optimism.
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Dec 11, 2021 15:55:35 GMT
Certainly an interesting time to send an update. Press send, switch off the lights and go home for the weekend in the bunker.
I note payments will continue as before until due course. So two or three days late with an apology then.
Its a very 'injury prone' loan so I would not be surprised if it is not due an interest only break for a while. Might as well lump all the loans together as well, only one payment a month then. Add the carrot of a proposed finance away in Q2 of 22, heads of terms etc and everybody will be happy. It can then stay suspended.......
Ablrate was supposed to be the marketing model for ASMX, currently ASMX is exposing the distinct lack of liquidity with Ablrate. I suspect the master plan is in need of a pending wholesale review more than this loan.
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Post by df on Dec 11, 2021 17:15:19 GMT
Certainly an interesting time to send an update. Press send, switch off the lights and go home for the weekend in the bunker. I note payments will continue as before until due course. So two or three days late with an apology then. Its a very 'injury prone' loan so I would not be surprised if it is not due an interest only break for a while. Might as well lump all the loans together as well, only one payment a month then. Add the carrot of a proposed finance away in Q2 of 22, heads of terms etc and everybody will be happy. It can then stay suspended....... Ablrate was supposed to be the marketing model for ASMX, currently ASMX is exposing the distinct lack of liquidity with Ablrate. I suspect the master plan is in need of a pending wholesale review more than this loan. I tend to stay positive about this loan. Not sure why. Probably because I'm not too overexposed and my reading of the update was that they are likely to get refinanced. I'm probably wrong.... Whatever the end of them will be, I've earned a bit of interest since I've invested in A**1 (5 years ago), plus some profit from trading them on SM. It's funny how much time, effort, enthusiasm, etc. ASMX took to develop and go live... Could've kept the old SM - there was nothing wrong with it.
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blender
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Post by blender on Dec 11, 2021 18:10:39 GMT
All this talk of bunkers at the weekend reminds me of the last days of the FC forum.
The ASMX strategy was fine and the current problem is with a very few borrowers. We need to keep ablrate positive and optimistic, and so I assume this bunker is part of a nice round of golf at the weekend, and a quick recovery with masterly use of the sand wedge.
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criston
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Post by criston on Dec 14, 2021 11:15:13 GMT
73 paid yesterday.
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