Post by mark123 on Aug 7, 2020 10:12:09 GMT
Hi,
I've had a wonderful few years in P2P and received really good returns; thank you RS & Z. I have also been lucky to get most of my funds out and am now running down the remainder.
I'm nearing retirement and, for the first time in my life, I have a substantial pot of money that needs to last me for one or ten or 40 years but have no idea what to do with it. How are you investing now? IMHO:
In the past I have spread my investments between most of the above and have been happy with the results - the winners have more than paid for the losers.
But now I am seriously concerned that the weight of money, including auto-enroll pensions, that is being spread into the above is creating a multi-asset bubble. Each month the finance industry has to put the new funds somewhere so the prices of each asset may well exceed their fundamental value and, in the long term, values must return to the norm.
And high inflation is likely in the medium-term as Governments have to deal with their Covid debts and years of spending more than tax income.
I know that the above sounds like a moan but really I'm posting it in the hope of a positive discussion from forum contributors, many of whom are innovative investors who avoid group think.
So, P2P generated good real returns for several years... what next?
Good luck,
Mark
I've had a wonderful few years in P2P and received really good returns; thank you RS & Z. I have also been lucky to get most of my funds out and am now running down the remainder.
I'm nearing retirement and, for the first time in my life, I have a substantial pot of money that needs to last me for one or ten or 40 years but have no idea what to do with it. How are you investing now? IMHO:
- P2P is over - the returns no longer match the risk and the credible platforms are now banks with their own source of funds
- Share prices are being propped up by central banks - there is a real downside risk when that support ends and little upside risk
- Corporate bonds also appear overvalued (as the Bank of England reported today)
- FSCS protected accounts, government bonds and cash pay interest rates below inflation so are guaranteed to lose value
- Buy to let is unattractive after recent tax changes and there is a real risk that UK house prices are overvalued
- Commercial property is even more of a risk with the likely demise of the high street and increase in home working
- Assets which generate no income (gold, paintings, collectibles, wine etc) are just gambles which are as likely to go down as up
- Europe and Japan have an aging population and their shares don't look any safer than UK ones
- USA assets are vulnerable to a dollar crash with their hugely growing borrowings
- Emerging markets have never returned their promise, perhaps because of endemic corruption
In the past I have spread my investments between most of the above and have been happy with the results - the winners have more than paid for the losers.
But now I am seriously concerned that the weight of money, including auto-enroll pensions, that is being spread into the above is creating a multi-asset bubble. Each month the finance industry has to put the new funds somewhere so the prices of each asset may well exceed their fundamental value and, in the long term, values must return to the norm.
And high inflation is likely in the medium-term as Governments have to deal with their Covid debts and years of spending more than tax income.
I know that the above sounds like a moan but really I'm posting it in the hope of a positive discussion from forum contributors, many of whom are innovative investors who avoid group think.
So, P2P generated good real returns for several years... what next?
Good luck,
Mark