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Post by dan1 on Aug 13, 2020 16:18:16 GMT
I've a soft spot for Bergamo. Perhaps because of the Sky News feature back in March where they showed the full horror inside the ICU of the Papa Giovanni XXII. Or maybe because it was (is?) the hardest hit province within the hardest hit region. Regardless, I keep an eye on the daily figures for Lombardy and have noticed that for some time there are invariably more cases in Bergamo than elsewhere in the region, which includes Milan. In common with much of Europe, Italy is seeing a resurgence in cases. But where are these cases? The charts that follow show the number of cases for each region averaged over the preceding 7 days. Data extracted from Wikipedia. It would appear the resurgence is greatest in regions hit hardest in March/April. The hardest hit region of Lombardy is still the region with the greatest number of cases. I use the word "resurgence" because it's clear to me this isn't a second-wave - the virus was never eliminated. It's a little disappointing in terms of herd immunity because if reached in Lombardy we'd hope for fewer cases than other regions. I'd like to chart the data for provinces of Lombardy but as yet I haven't found an easy to extract source of the data. There are anomalies in the data but the trends are pretty clear. e.g. Campania shows -229 on 12 June. cb25 - I pinched your thread title
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cb25
Posts: 3,520
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Post by cb25 on Aug 13, 2020 16:25:41 GMT
dan1 But you're doing a much more professional job of it than I ever had
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Post by dan1 on Aug 13, 2020 21:06:06 GMT
I managed to find the case numbers for each province. You lucky lucky people The charts below show the twelve provinces of the Lombardy region split across two charts - the order is as per the offical data. The series show the daily number of cases per million population averaged over the preceding 14 days (the axis label says 7 days, that's wrong) instead of 7 because it was just too noisy. There are large differences in population ranging from 230k in Lodi to 3.3mil in Milan, hence showing per million population rather than the actual number of cases. Bergamo still rides higher than all other provinces except Mantova although the provinces are certainly not as distinguishable as the regional data. I wonder what's happening in Mantova? A quick search didn't yield anything but for context there were "only" 184 cases in the past two weeks with a population of 415k.
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