ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Nov 4, 2020 17:11:24 GMT
Only 10% of the prize fund is for the major prizes. The MSE calculator shows the impact as around 0.2%pa which is more than 10% of both 1.4% (old rate) and 1% (new rate). Which just goes to reinforce a discussion we've had before - that MSE calculator is clearly flawed. 90% of the prize fund is reserved for the smaller prizes. That's not to say that the expected return on a PB investment is a nice simple percentage, because of the lumpiness of the "return" especially for lower investment levels. But for large investments, over a period of years, you can expect something close to 90% of the stated return value, with the tiny chance of a big bonus on top.
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 4, 2020 17:29:06 GMT
The MSE calculator - unless its been revamped - is a load of cack. It has fundamental flaws in it. I did some analysis of its flaws and posted on here before. This does not mean that the algorithm sitting behind it is wrong, rather the way the results are presented / sampled is just broken and gives misleading answers as a result. This can be demonstrated pretty easily with some simple 'sense check' tests.
No I can't remember where/when I posted my analysis before.
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coogaruk
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Post by coogaruk on Nov 4, 2020 17:46:22 GMT
That's a bit of a short-sighted view, if you don't mind me saying.
My first win this year was in May and I had not won anything since March last year. Since then it's all gone a bit mad, with £25 wins coming thick and fast. I now expect another fallow period, as it all evens out in the end. Of course, some will win above average and others below.
Each draw is statistically independent. The fact is that the chances of winning are now lower than before so I've cashed in. I don't think that's short-sighted but even if it is it's the right decision for me. I can only retiterate what littleoldlady said: "And put the cash where?"
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Post by Ace on Nov 4, 2020 21:49:10 GMT
The MSE calculator - unless its been revamped - is a load of cack. It has fundamental flaws in it. I did some analysis of its flaws and posted on here before. This does not mean that the algorithm sitting behind it is wrong, rather the way the results are presented / sampled is just broken and gives misleading answers as a result. This can be demonstrated pretty easily with some simple 'sense check' tests.
No I can't remember where/when I posted my analysis before.
It was here.
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coogaruk
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Post by coogaruk on Nov 13, 2020 13:14:46 GMT
Far fewer prizes from the December draw onwards. I've cashed in mine. And put the cash where? Pension?
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Post by carol167 on Nov 16, 2020 12:27:56 GMT
Index shares a few weeks ago would have been a good bet.
Still a good bet if you don't need the money for about 10 years.
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bt
Sir Bufton Tufton, Jean Paul Sartre Zippy, Bungle, Jeffrey Archer Andre Previn and the LSO Hello
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Post by bt on Nov 16, 2020 12:40:08 GMT
I've just cashed in all my premium bonds to go towards my house deposit that was supposed to have been paid from my RateSetter balance.
Fingers crossed I will be able to top up once again when my RYI comes through!
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littleoldlady
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Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on Nov 16, 2020 17:01:37 GMT
Index shares a few weeks ago would have been a good bet.
Still a good bet if you don't need the money for about 10 years.
There are lots of places to invest, but nothing comparable to PBs - Govt backed security, (almost) instant access, paying a multiple of base rate (in aggregate, but a large holding can expect something very similar). If you are prepared to take some risk then a casino is the quickest way to riches.
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beagle
Investor in ratesetter, funding circle, lendy (lesson learnt) and AC
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Post by beagle on Nov 16, 2020 17:44:40 GMT
Index shares a few weeks ago would have been a good bet.
Still a good bet if you don't need the money for about 10 years.
There are lots of places to invest, but nothing comparable to PBs - Govt backed security, (almost) instant access, paying a multiple of base rate (in aggregate, but a large holding can expect something very similar). If you are prepared to take some risk then a casino is the quickest way to riches. The rate is: 1.40% annual prize fund until November 2020 prize draw 1.00% annual prize fund from December 2020 prize draw vs the rate of inflation - www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindicesIt looks a safe bet for capital hording. However, once it rises I personally am not keen on rates that essentially lose me money over time. The vaccine news could impact this at some point next year ( I am sure) but marginal as the govs will desperately want to spending from us all to save the ship.
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coogaruk
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Post by coogaruk on Dec 3, 2020 18:35:16 GMT
Not a sausage this month but with £200 won over the preceeding three months on 12k invested I'm not complaining.
This week I more than doubled my holding (ex-Income Bonds) so fingers crossed going forward...
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Dec 3, 2020 21:05:35 GMT
It looks a safe bet for capital hording. However, once it rises I personally am not keen on rates that essentially lose me money over time. Nor am I. But I am even less keen on investments that lose me a lot quickly (L, C, FS, MT et al)
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beagle
Investor in ratesetter, funding circle, lendy (lesson learnt) and AC
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Post by beagle on Dec 4, 2020 8:10:20 GMT
It looks a safe bet for capital hording. However, once it rises I personally am not keen on rates that essentially lose me money over time. Nor am I. But I am even less keen on investments that lose me a lot quickly (L, C, FS, MT et al) agree, but are these not all (L, C, FS, MT et al) p2p investments? All of these platforms, someone else is essentially placing your money on your behalf. If you rather reduce the risk, why not pick the stock?
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gg
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Post by gg on Dec 22, 2020 11:49:13 GMT
Premium bonds are a safe haven so long as the U.K. doesn’t go bust or if inflation is greater than the prize fund for a long period, I guess. My wife and I currently hold 70k PBs and ‘win’ about £100 per month. I don’t like the term ‘win’ as the value of the money is being eroded by much more than the average ‘win’.
I had £10k in a stocks and share ISA last year and it’s doing better at just shy of £20k today (I guess the pandemic helped but I know people who have made many times my modest return). I pick shares in businesses that I think will do well either short term or long term. I just hold on to the long term ones but trade the short term shares.
We also have some money in property and I think this will see a significant fall in value in the next few years. I’d sell up now if the tenants moved out.
I preferred P2P - when rates were 5%+.
gg
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coogaruk
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Post by coogaruk on May 5, 2021 12:01:12 GMT
The 'ex-RateSetter prizemoney' is still trickling in.
Two more £25 prizes this month. One from a £1k tranche purchased in August last year and one from another £1k tranche bought last November, neither of which had previously won a sausage.
£125 won in total this month on a holding now just shy of £45k, so I'm feeling particularly lucky again
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aju
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Post by aju on May 5, 2021 16:32:21 GMT
The 'ex-RateSetter prizemoney' is still trickling in.
Two more £25 prizes this month. One from a £1k tranche purchased in August last year and one from another £1k tranche bought last November, neither of which had previously won a sausage.
£125 won in total this month on a holding now just shy of £45k, so I'm feeling particularly lucky again Yes we had another small touch after a couple of fallow months. Only £25 though. So far all Mrs Aju's £25 hits hve been in a 20k placement in Dec. We have other blocks too but not a sniff in any of them. We are due to fill up Mrs Aju's in few days when her ford Money 1Y (1.45%) lending finishes. Once her PB is full then i'll have to start an account too. We've got some Lloyds regsavers (2.0%) finishing too. So is there a way that NS&I withdrawals take from a specific block perhaps so I can withdraw funds and relend with bigger blocks say. Not sure this is the best approach but with the way it seems to be sniffing out the 20k block rather the other splits of 2x5k, 1x6k etc. Probably not worth it but i am curious. Overall FCSC covered pickings are getting smaller and smaller such that NS&I PB's are well worth it as stash place so far. Not sure whats going to happen when we have filled them up though Marcus is our goto stash for quick access money but it's pretty much useless rates wise. (0.4% as of writing so not that bad relatively i guess!)
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