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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2020 8:24:03 GMT
A really great question. A friend of mine wrote her PhD on this subject. The original thinking of the power net in the UK was about maximising efficiency through an integrated coal/power station net work with distribution almost an after thought.
Fast forward to 2020. Power is consumed everywhere as the big steel plants are gone. So the power you use in your laptop might as well be from your car parked in your garage hence avoiding the massive power loses of distribution and voltage modification.
We have distributed consumption hence we need distributed production. As a result we will also see turbines in all our seas.
Yes charge and recharge does damage batteries. So usage costs needs to include capital and revenue elements. Hydrogen fuel cells also have this issue but they weaken far more slowly and the technology is far better in many ways.
You may have seen that tired batteries have a further use than just being recycled. They are built into balancing stations where cycling is minimised and just help to maintain local power.
All this will require intelligent grids. Much of the UK's grid is owned by European companies and they are well aware of the expenditure they need in their home country and here, hence you will have seen them shedding debt into Bad Companies.
Going to be interesting times, but then what alternative do we have? The dumb one of life as it was with oil companies share prices going up or the real one of share prices going down. Go look if you don't believe me.
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Oct 8, 2020 8:36:05 GMT
My understanding is that peak grid demand is around 16:00 to 19:00, EVs could help to support this demand and still easily be recharged for the next day by using electricity during the low demand window of 00:00 to 05:00, indeed an attractively priced tariff from Octopus does something very similar to this but currently only using battery storage rather than V2G EV batteries. Most EV owners charge their batteries to 100% only when they are going on a long trip, the usual routine is to top up each night to about 80% which is more than enough for the average day.
Question (which has only just come to my small mind). This model of V2G with EV batteries would mean that for many vehicles the batteries would go through significantly greater number of charge/discharge (even if only partial) than they would otherwise do. This is presumably then going to shorten the life of EV batteries compared to what they would otherwise be. And potentially very substantially shorten (unless of course pure duration of time is a bigger factor in lifetime than charging cycles, but I do not believe that is currently the case).
So this isn't a free lunch, and owners would need sufficient additional financial incentive to offset. Also, it seems likely that using highly distributed small batteries may be less environmentally freindly then using more centralised storage as one would think that the waste/recycle handling process for very many small batteries must be less good than equivalent larger storage facilities.
Thoughts ?
Seems to make sense, however, interestingly, the Tesla Energy Plan, whilst not V2G, involves frequent import/export, and states that the battery warranty is unaffected, furthermore I believe that in general domestic battery solutions such as Powerwall are less well endowed than EV batteries.
I think that we will need multiple solutions so V2G may just play a part as will pushing water up hill where the geography supports it.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 8, 2020 11:07:41 GMT
I don't know what is going on, but my clean energy etf is up 30% in 2 weeks. I have sold a bunch on the (not particularly well informed) basis that green energy is going to get cheaper, profit margins eroded, and any future growth probably accounted for in the current price.
Cue a further 50% rise.
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Post by bracknellboy on Oct 8, 2020 11:27:31 GMT
.... We have distributed consumption hence we need distributed production. As a result we will also see turbines in all our seas. .... All this will require intelligent grids. Absolutely agree with that. Have written here before that distributed production is a major disruptor to the industry existing infrastructure, and intelligent grids is the big challenge facing the grid infrastrure orgs wwide. I claim no special insight into that: it came a few years ago from a presentation from a senior at one of my customers who lets say has a major interest.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 8, 2020 11:36:08 GMT
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aj
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Post by aj on Oct 8, 2020 11:49:06 GMT
I don't know what is going on, but my clean energy etf is up 30% in 2 weeks. I have sold a bunch on the (not particularly well informed) basis that green energy is going to get cheaper, profit margins eroded, and any future growth probably accounted for in the current price. Cue a further 50% rise. If it's anything like the composition of INRG, most of the gains are led by American companies. The explanation that I have seen is the odds of the Democrats winning the US election are shortening at the moment; and their policies are strongly pro-renewables. I am continuing to hold; this is an area I want long term exposure to and my gut feeling that something is getting a bit overvalued has proven a bit premature in the past!
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easynow
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Popcorn anyone?
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Post by easynow on Oct 8, 2020 12:00:44 GMT
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 8, 2020 12:37:34 GMT
If it's anything like the composition of INRG, most of the gains are led by American companies. The explanation that I have seen is the odds of the Democrats winning the US election are shortening at the moment; and their policies are strongly pro-renewables. I am continuing to hold; this is an area I want long term exposure to and my gut feeling that something is getting a bit overvalued has proven a bit premature in the past! This from the FT: Clean energy group NextEra surpasses ExxonMobil in market capNextEra Energy, a Florida-based utility and power producer, had a market capitalisation of $138.6bn in intraday trading on Friday, having gained more than two-thirds in the past two years, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
ExxonMobil, a byword for Big Oil that was once the world’s biggest public company, has lost more than half its value since the start of the year. The supermajor’s market capitalisation was $137.9bn, down from a peak of more than $500bn in 2007.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 8, 2020 12:42:43 GMT
I don't know what is going on, but my clean energy etf is up 30% in 2 weeks. I have sold a bunch on the (not particularly well informed) basis that green energy is going to get cheaper, profit margins eroded, and any future growth probably accounted for in the current price. Cue a further 50% rise. If it's anything like the composition of INRG, most of the gains are led by American companies. The explanation that I have seen is the odds of the Democrats winning the US election are shortening at the moment; and their policies are strongly pro-renewables. I am continuing to hold; this is an area I want long term exposure to and my gut feeling that something is getting a bit overvalued has proven a bit premature in the past! Yeah, I almost certainly sold too soon, especially on a medium term outlook. But I was up 40% in a month, and not banking profits has been my historic weakness. So done. Come the crash I'll buy back in! EDIT: on a happier note, my cannabis etfs remain high.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2020 13:08:04 GMT
My ITM, make electrolysers in Sheffield, are up 50p to 310p in the past year and they have yet to make a profit with the new factory coming on line in November and a contract for Linde to be their sales team for large installations with something like £50m in orders waiting to ship.
Meanwhile BP SP has crashed £5 to £2 in the past year while SHELL has managed a fantastic 2300 to 1000 in the past year
The world it is a changing.................
I understand it all feels uncertain and confusing and I do recognise that the DT and the Daily Mail are lying trying to tell everyone to "calm down dear" but would you rather be with companies that go 50p to £3 or ones that go £5 to £2? Seems simple to me.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2020 13:13:29 GMT
Well worth reading the comments as well, especially when finusmus changes his mind a fair bit.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 9, 2020 11:31:22 GMT
I don't know what is going on, but my clean energy etf is up 30% in 2 weeks. I have sold a bunch on the (not particularly well informed) basis that green energy is going to get cheaper, profit margins eroded, and any future growth probably accounted for in the current price. Cue a further 50% rise. Well it is down 5% since I sold yesterday, so a short term successful sale I suppose. it is probably just people taking a profit after the huge rise, like me. So age old story now - how far to drop before rebuying...
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2020 11:55:47 GMT
I cannot time anything, I basically set targets for assets and time scales, if they don't make it they go, if they make the target they stay. Very un-sophisticated but it seems to work. I don't like being out of the market so normally back in within a couple of days.
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Post by martin44 on Oct 9, 2020 20:34:44 GMT
There was a lot of talk 2 or 3 years ago regarding under sea turbines off Scotland.. is that still feasible, or indeed happening? The energy needed to manufacture them outstrips performance. As does the maintenance,Greta. Its commonly stated, but im not sure its a fact, and if GRETA says it, then its definitely not... fullfact.org/online/wind-turbines-energy/ ... not sure if this is significant as far as underwater generation is concerned , but i would guess its fairly equivalent.
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Post by martin44 on Oct 9, 2020 20:40:31 GMT
If it's anything like the composition of INRG, most of the gains are led by American companies. The explanation that I have seen is the odds of the Democrats winning the US election are shortening at the moment; and their policies are strongly pro-renewables. I am continuing to hold; this is an area I want long term exposure to and my gut feeling that something is getting a bit overvalued has proven a bit premature in the past! Yeah, I almost certainly sold too soon, especially on a medium term outlook. But I was up 40% in a month, and not banking profits has been my historic weakness. So done. Come the crash I'll buy back in! EDIT: on a happier note, my cannabis etfs remain high. Stick to tech stocks... its not speculative.. TECH STOCKS ARE THE FUTURE.. And green energy will benefit from it.
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