adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 20, 2020 15:05:30 GMT
I work in customs clearance of excise goods and what was simple and free under Single Market arrangements has to be paid for under the new UK regime. Instead of HMRC writing the needed software to make customs declarations, the government has left it to private companies to write and sell the software. Quotes for this software are coming at £500 a month for our volume of submissions. With or without some skimpy deal we still have to pay this and of course we have to raise prices to accommodate it. On the face of it, £500 does sound like small fry when set against the hundreds of £millions every month we've been forking out to belong to the EU. Hopefully when those contributions eventually cease, we can divert some towards the cost of customs declarations? Because it's already promised to the NHS, remember? And let's put that "hundreds of millions every month" into proportion, in case we've forgotten over the last four years. fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/The annual net contribution is about £9bn/year. BIIIIG money, right? £750m/mo, £173m/wk. Except in terms of UK government spending, it's about 1%. www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/government_spending.htmlYep, one percent. That's all. In terms of your personal contribution, it's about £2/week. B'sides, if the country is spending the same money that membership cost, but only on trying to mitigate just one small aspect of the costs of no longer being members, then it seems to me that the membership was bloody good value...
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Oct 20, 2020 15:08:21 GMT
More on this topic from the Independent: "The results of a member survey published by the Institute of Directors (IoD) after Boris Johnson’s predictably bellicose Friday statement makes it clear that things could get very sticky in the new year, even in the increasingly unlikely event that a deal is secured.
The poll, of 958 respondents, was conducted between 11-20 September. It found that just 12 per cent had in place a customs agent or intermediary to help them deal with the bureaucratic swamp the government has created at Britain’s ports. Just 7 per cent were planning on hiring one, which leaves 81 per cent in danger of drowning."
"As for obtaining the necessary licences/authorisations from EU/European authorities to allow them to operate on the continent? Barely 14 per cent have them. The same number again are planning to obtain them. The remaining 73 per cent? Oh dear"
Strangely though, in my view the tone of this and other articles isn't particularly one of 'up in arms' and more just 'sigh.....' . Whether that's because there's some likely mitigating action, or for fear of looking silly if it's not as bad as all that I really don't know. It's certainly not going to be smooth sailing, but in the short term is the UK headed for logistics catastrophe, or just a month or two without good kiwis? If it's the former as per the chap's tweets in the original post in this thread*, and this is to happen regardless of deal/no-deal, how can there be so little about it in the media? It all doesn't quite add up for me at the moment. * e.g. " People with my freight forwarding background/customs I know are stockpiling food & medicine for what will be an up to 6 months, then stuttering ongoing, logistics 'not quite mad max dystopia' (but damn close enough) chaos" |
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Post by dan1 on Oct 20, 2020 15:13:13 GMT
I'm guilt of this myself so I'm a big hypocrite  But... Another Brexit thread descending down the same old route. The divisions are so deep that truth and facts are immaterial to the debate. I can't see these divisions healing for a generation. It feels much worse than the depths Trump has plunged the US into because he'll go in a few months or 4 years and stuff like SCOTUS can be reformed. Edit: *sigh* |
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Post by bernythedolt on Oct 20, 2020 15:16:05 GMT
On the face of it, £500 does sound like small fry when set against the hundreds of £millions every month we've been forking out to belong to the EU. Hopefully when those contributions eventually cease, we can divert some towards the cost of customs declarations? Of course the cost for an individual business sounds like small fry compared to the total amount payed by the whole country... how can you even make such a comparison? The total cost of the additional red tape is very likely to exceed the EU membership fee. More Project Fear. Subsequently reigned in to half the previous scaremongery figure.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 20, 2020 15:32:06 GMT
I'm guilt of this myself so I'm a big hypocrite But... Another Brexit thread descending down the same old route. The divisions are so deep that truth and facts are immaterial to the debate. I can't see these divisions healing for a generation. It feels much worse than the depths Trump has plunged the US into because he'll go in a few months or 4 years and stuff like SCOTUS can be reformed. Edit: *sigh* Me too, and there was always the danger of it, but the reason I posted the OP was because it was interesting, relevant and from a subject matter expert (compare and contrast with Mr "I didn't realise Dover was important" Raab) in the particular domain of trade, customs and logistics - I'd not seen that before.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 20, 2020 15:42:34 GMT
I'm guilt of this myself so I'm a big hypocrite But... Another Brexit thread descending down the same old route. The divisions are so deep that truth and facts are immaterial to the debate. I can't see these divisions healing for a generation. It feels much worse than the depths Trump has plunged the US into because he'll go in a few months or 4 years and stuff like SCOTUS can be reformed. Edit: *sigh* Me too, and there was always the danger of it, but the reason I posted the OP was because it was interesting, relevant and from a subject matter expert (compare and contrast with Mr "I didn't realise Dover was important" Raab) in the particular domain of trade, customs and logistics - I'd not seen that before. It's an interesting perspective and was well worth posting. I wasn't having a pop at anyone, least of all you. I guess my feelings shift from wanting to vent anger, to ridicule, to sadness. There are too few winners from where I stand.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Oct 20, 2020 16:01:32 GMT
I'm guilt of this myself so I'm a big hypocrite But... Another Brexit thread descending down the same old route. The divisions are so deep that truth and facts are immaterial to the debate. I can't see these divisions healing for a generation. It feels much worse than the depths Trump has plunged the US into because he'll go in a few months or 4 years and stuff like SCOTUS can be reformed. Edit: *sigh* Oh I don't know.... Four years ago we were bickering about 'is this going to be a good or bad thing'. Two years ago, we were bickering about whether it really had to be done at all. Now, having established it's at best a bit of a waste of our country's time and with democracy's intent fulfilled, we're now speculating on just how big the socio-economic bill is and will be. Progress, see! Re: truth/facts, facts of importance to me off the top of my head: As of next year I am going to have count up my Schengen days carefully around my home continent in order to not break the law. I am no longer going to be eligible for an EHIC. My currency is worth 10-15% less globally than it used to be. Instead of being asked about Manchester United when I meet a new person abroad, they wince and ask about Brexit. Back home, I look at things that don't (yet) impact me directly but that are important and have been neglected of time and money e.g. The social care bill, inequality, NHS improvements. I'm obviously not expecting a chorus of violins here for my travel-related inconvenience. I'm still a very privileged first-world person. Yet, I would much prefer it if there was at least a long list of countervailing benefits that others are going to be experiencing to balance things out. I'm yet to hear them though. edit: X'd with Dan. Well, you've put my waffle in 3 words: "too few winners" edit2: I warn you all, I've opened a 330ml tin of Greek supermarket own-brand 3.8% lager now. things could get messy, I best bow out.
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Post by bernythedolt on Oct 20, 2020 16:09:38 GMT
At present we face a scorned EU intent on punishing us for having the temerity to leave. If nothing else, to serve as a deterrent to others.
So how much of these red tape costs, etc, are real and ongoing, as opposed to temporary blips?
This too shall pass?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 20, 2020 17:12:51 GMT
At present we face a scorned EU intent on punishing us for having the temerity to leave. No, we don't. The EU have acted absolutely consistently and openly through all of this. They have said "This is where we stand. You know how we work, and you know we will not change the way our internal market works for your benefit - so pick where on that scale you want your relationship to be."We face a world who stare at us, and wonder how we can be so short-sighted and so disingenuous... while wondering whether we can be trusted to stand by our word and obligations. The WTO basis for trade is ongoing until such time as we grow up and negotiate a proper deal in good faith. We may get the logistics bottlenecks sorted out before then - they are entirely down to UK lack of preparedness and incompetence, after all.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 20, 2020 17:40:15 GMT
Of course the cost for an individual business sounds like small fry compared to the total amount payed by the whole country... how can you even make such a comparison? The total cost of the additional red tape is very likely to exceed the EU membership fee. More Project Fear. Subsequently reigned in to half the previous scaremongery figure. Both articles are based on this impact assessment published by HMRC. The £15bn figure (first article) can be found in that document: HMRC therefore estimates that the static total ongoing administrative burden on UK-EU trade is £15 billion (updated to reflect 2017 data) a year. The £7bn figure (second article) can also be found there: The latest static estimate for the annual administrative burden on UK businesses from additional import and export declarations is £7.5 billion (updated to reflect 2017 data)So it wasn't "reigned in", they're just two different figures referring to slightly different things. The smaller one for UK businesses only and the larger one is for both UK and EU businesses. "Project fear" = I can't be bothered to read and understand the numbers.
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Post by wallstreet on Oct 20, 2020 19:21:17 GMT
The EU have acted absolutely consistently and openly through all of this. They have said "This is where we stand. You know how we work, and you know we will not change the way our internal market works for your benefit - so pick where on that scale you want your relationship to be."We face a world who stare at us, and wonder how we can be so short-sighted and so disingenuous... while wondering whether we can be trusted to stand by our word and obligations. Perhaps its time to remind the rose-tinted bernythedolt types of this Boris Johnson statement he wrote in the Daily Telegraph in 2013:
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Oct 20, 2020 20:56:23 GMT
Two points to make:
1/ It looks like we have 5 or 6 posteres here on one side of the debate and just one poster on the other. If this was a playground and we were kids I'd say he's on the verge of being bullied.
2/ Why would it make any sense for the EU to be as friendly and reasonable as possible to any of its members leaving the club? It doesn't want to reduce in size and certainly doesn't want to lose its larger members so why would it be keen to show that the route out of the EU is easy or frictionless to use the jargon ?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 20, 2020 21:31:40 GMT
michaelc you may be right about point 1, and if so I certainly don't want to see any bullying, let alone be a part of it. But the question remains, what has this government, that gained power largely through it's staunch support of Brexit, done to minimise and mitigate any logistics / transport / customs risks associated with Brexit? I've yet to see an actual answer. I don't care who the answer comes from - ardent Brexiteer, depressed Remainer, Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, in power, out of it, scientist, somebody in business etc etc etc etc. I just want somebody to point at something and say "look, this is what we've done, and we know it is going to work". And then to be able to nod my head in approval and think "great, you've got that covered".
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 20, 2020 21:38:02 GMT
Two points to make: 1/ It looks like we have 5 or 6 posteres here on one side of the debate and just one poster on the other. If this was a playground and we were kids I'd say he's on the verge of being bullied. Look back to the 2016 brexit threads. This place was overwhelmingly pro-brexit... Is the fact that there's only one person still willing to support the godawful mess a sign of dawning reality?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 20, 2020 21:44:23 GMT
The EU have acted absolutely consistently and openly through all of this. They have said "This is where we stand. You know how we work, and you know we will not change the way our internal market works for your benefit - so pick where on that scale you want your relationship to be."And, to demonstrate that, this is taken from a 2017 "Roadmap to Brexit" European Commission doc...  The Canadian deal took 7yrs to negotiate and, 3yrs after it was agreed, it hasn't yet been ratified by all 27 EU member states. And it explicitly includes convergence with EU rules... Oh, and the UK apparently never even asked for anything along those lines anyway. But did repeatedly ask for far more than a straightforward trade deal would ever include. yorkshirebylines.co.uk/britain-never-asked-for-a-canada-style-free-trade-agreement/It's almost like the government and brexiteer media have been lying to the public...
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But...
