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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2020 12:08:38 GMT
And imagine what will happen to that map (and the consequences for oil/gas too) once the SNP get their way and Scotland waves goodbye to the UK.
A messy hard brexit just makes Scottish independence even more likely.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 24, 2020 12:16:52 GMT
And imagine what will happen to that map (and the consequences for oil/gas too) once the SNP get their way and Scotland waves goodbye to the UK. A messy hard brexit just makes Scottish independence even more likely. 
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Post by dan1 on Oct 24, 2020 13:58:02 GMT
Lots of discussion about the disproportionate leverage the UK fishing industry has over the negotiations but isn't it even worse in France? I got the impression they were more militant and keen to take direct action to protect their interests.
I wonder if we're going to see more than just a few flares fired and vessels colliding over the coming months?
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 24, 2020 15:00:09 GMT
So, if we are visiting Santa’s grotto, what would be the best Win-win brexit outcome gifts for the British and EU-counterparts?
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 24, 2020 15:36:19 GMT
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 24, 2020 16:44:01 GMT
Nobody ever seems to mention that leaving the common fisheries would massively restrict the waters available to UK-based fishermen... According to the FT:
Diplomats noted that fishing rights enjoyed up to now by the UK in the residual EU EEZ are worth about a fifth of those enjoyed by the EU27 in UK waters.
According to data from the UK’s Marine Management Organisation, between 2012 and 2016, the UK fleet landed an annual average of 94,000 tonnes of fish per year valued at £106m from the EU27 EEZ; the EU27 fleet, by comparison, landed an average of 739,000 tonnes per year, worth £521m, from UK waters over the same period
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 24, 2020 16:54:00 GMT
So, if we are visiting Santa’s grotto, what would be the best Win-win brexit outcome gifts for the British and EU-counterparts?
Surely that's an easy one benaj .
The "best" deal is a deal that is equivalent to being in the EU.
The further you move away from that ideal, the more the UK will "lose".
Ultimately, in a no-deal scenario, the UK will be the only loser.
The EU with 27 countries, has a significant internal market, and beyond that, acting in bloc on the global stage, and with extensive global trade agreements already in place will not "lose" much other than increased friction when doing business with the UK (assuming it does not repatriate that business or start sending it elsewhere other than the UK).
The UK exports far, far, far more to the EU than the EU exports to the UK. That is a fact, no matter what figures you look at (i.e. figures for EU-> UK exports vary widely from 8-15%, meanwhile figures for UK->EU exports tend not to start until 40%).
In 2019, the UK recorded an overall trade deficit with the EU of -£72 billion. A surplus of £23 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of -£95 billion on trade in goods.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 24, 2020 17:43:33 GMT
Nobody ever seems to mention that leaving the common fisheries would massively restrict the waters available to UK-based fishermen... According to the FT:
Diplomats noted that fishing rights enjoyed up to now by the UK in the residual EU EEZ are worth about a fifth of those enjoyed by the EU27 in UK waters.
According to data from the UK’s Marine Management Organisation, between 2012 and 2016, the UK fleet landed an annual average of 94,000 tonnes of fish per year valued at £106m from the EU27 EEZ; the EU27 fleet, by comparison, landed an average of 739,000 tonnes per year, worth £521m, from UK waters over the same period
It's a level playing field... Actually, it's not even that - because the UK fleet don't have to go as far to collect the fish from UK waters. So is the UK fleet... 1. Incompetent? 2. Small-scale? 3. People who have mostly sold their quota to Johnny Foreigner because it's easier than being cold and wet?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 24, 2020 17:45:26 GMT
Surely that's an easy one benaj . The "best" deal is a deal that is equivalent to being in the EU. The further you move away from that ideal, the more the UK will "lose". Ultimately, in a no-deal scenario, the UK will be the only loser.
The EU with 27 countries, has a significant internal market, and beyond that, acting in bloc on the global stage, and with extensive global trade agreements already in place will not "lose" much other than increased friction when doing business with the UK (assuming it does not repatriate that business or start sending it elsewhere other than the UK). The UK exports far, far, far more to the EU than the EU exports to the UK. That is a fact, no matter what figures you look at (i.e. figures for EU-> UK exports vary widely from 8-15%, meanwhile figures for UK->EU exports tend not to start until 40%).
In 2019, the UK recorded an overall trade deficit with the EU of -£72 billion. A surplus of £23 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of -£95 billion on trade in goods. Both are correct. The UK exports more goods and services to the EU as a percentage of total UK exports. The EU27 export more goods (but fewer services) to the UK as a £/€ financial amount.
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Oct 24, 2020 18:34:21 GMT
There are still a lot of us who spent their early lives eating off ration books. Umm, it's nearly seventy years since the last dregs of post-war rationing ended, so somebody who can actually remember it is probably nearer 80 than 70. But are you really suggesting that it's something that post-Brexit UK should aspire to? Because it seems to me that having to even consider it is a marker of a failed state. Oh Adrian, it was 1954 and I am 70. I remember quite a lot of it and 1957 was the happiest year in living memory www.thetimes.co.uk/article/weve-never-had-it-so-good-1957-was-the-happiest-year-ctx8whpgwSupposedly much happier than now , according to our miserable media. But I guess you are all too concerned to be happy with such miserable prospects ahead and Christmas humbug.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 24, 2020 18:42:32 GMT
Oh Adrian, it was 1954 and I am 70. I remeber quite a lot of it and 1957 was the happiest year in living memory An outside privy and the back page of the Daily Mirror. I remember it well.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 24, 2020 19:00:21 GMT
In 2019, the UK recorded an overall trade deficit with the EU of -£72 billion. A surplus of £23 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of -£95 billion on trade in goods. The UK exports more goods and services to the EU as a percentage of total UK exports. The EU27 export more goods (but fewer services) to the UK as a £/€ financial amount. But the original quote (which said no matter what figures you look at) was clearly not correct.
Besides, when you hear people talk about trade defecits, they always talk about the absolute figures, not some meaningless percentage figure.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 24, 2020 19:11:24 GMT
Umm, it's nearly seventy years since the last dregs of post-war rationing ended, so somebody who can actually remember it is probably nearer 80 than 70. But are you really suggesting that it's something that post-Brexit UK should aspire to? Because it seems to me that having to even consider it is a marker of a failed state. Oh Adrian, it was 1954 and I am 70. 1954 was two thirds of a century years ago. You would have been four years old. There is no way you can remember with any actual relevance what the effects of rationing were. I can barely remember a bloody thing about being four in the mid 70s. Clothes rationing ended before you were born. Petrol about the time of your birth. Confectionary and sugar when you were three. I'm sure you remember decimalisation (or, as a friend of ours of a certain gammonish hue refers to it with a straight face - "the disaster of decimalisation")? I wasn't even born then. I'm rapidly approaching 50.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 24, 2020 19:13:07 GMT
Both are correct.The UK exports more goods and services to the EU as a percentage of total UK exports. The EU27 export more goods (but fewer services) to the UK as a £/€ financial amount. But the original quote (which said no matter what figures you look at) was clearly not correct. Yes, it was. We are far more reliant on them than they are on us. We cannot lose trade with them half as easily as they can lose trade with us. It's not a meaningless percentage when half of your export business dries up overnight and half of your imports get more expensive overnight. We have lost 27 of our nearest neighbours and largest trading partners. They have lost one.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 24, 2020 19:19:19 GMT
In 2019, the UK recorded an overall trade deficit with the EU of -£72 billion. A surplus of £23 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of -£95 billion on trade in goods. And yet we might get a deal on goods but not much on services: Brussels offers UK less on financial services than JapanMs McGuinness said it was “extraordinary” that EU-UK negotiators were currently spending so much time haggling over the European fishing sector while devoting so little attention to the financial services industry given the latter’s importance to the British economy.
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