r00lish67
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,691 
Likes: 4,048
|
Post by r00lish67 on Nov 14, 2020 9:46:08 GMT
As an aside the assumption that there is need to pay back is not necessarily correct. Quantitative easing on a massive scale should lead to hyperinflation. There is no sign of that. Bought in bonds need to be cancelled. Make the debt disappear. The option of reissuing/selling the debt is not available as it would result in reducing the money supply. A monetarists policy resulting in inflation falling below zero and everyone going, I will wait until the prices fall further. Which will happen because nobody is buying. A depression awaits. And nobody will have any of my 2.5 years worth firewood as I have got a shotgun license and have bought a shotgun. I think I have gone of topic. I never quite buy the oft-stated economists fear of deflation leading to people delaying purchases. Most consumers aren't particularly rational in how and when they buy products/services, and it seems rather far-fetched to me to imagine them en masse saying "no, I'll wait a year, as that new dishwasher will be 1.2% cheaper by then" FWIW, I lean more towards the opposite, roaring 20's hypothesis. If we are all released from the shackles of COVID & confinement, well I think people might go a bit loopy. It'll certainly have focused a few minds on realising that life is short and extra time to do all of those fun things cannot be taken for granted.
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,664
Likes: 2,988
|
Post by IFISAcava on Nov 14, 2020 10:40:24 GMT
As an aside the assumption that there is need to pay back is not necessarily correct. Quantitative easing on a massive scale should lead to hyperinflation. There is no sign of that. Bought in bonds need to be cancelled. Make the debt disappear. The option of reissuing/selling the debt is not available as it would result in reducing the money supply. A monetarists policy resulting in inflation falling below zero and everyone going, I will wait until the prices fall further. Which will happen because nobody is buying. A depression awaits. And nobody will have any of my 2.5 years worth firewood as I have got a shotgun license and have bought a shotgun. I think I have gone of topic. I never quite buy the oft-stated economists fear of deflation leading to people delaying purchases. Most consumers aren't particularly rational in how and when they buy products/services, and it seems rather far-fetched to me to imagine them en masse saying "no, I'll wait a year, as that new dishwasher will be 1.2% cheaper by then" FWIW, I lean more towards the opposite, roaring 20's hypothesis. If we are all released from the shackles of COVID & confinement, well I think people might go a bit loopy. It'll certainly have focused a few minds on realising that life is short and extra time to do all of those fun things cannot be taken for granted. followed by a 1929 style crash and the second great depression. Ended only by a world war. sadly not too far fetched
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,586
Likes: 4,181
|
Post by agent69 on Nov 14, 2020 11:09:12 GMT
I never quite buy the oft-stated economists fear of deflation leading to people delaying purchases. Most consumers aren't particularly rational in how and when they buy products/services, and it seems rather far-fetched to me to imagine them en masse saying "no, I'll wait a year, as that new dishwasher will be 1.2% cheaper by then" FWIW, I lean more towards the opposite, roaring 20's hypothesis. If we are all released from the shackles of COVID & confinement, well I think people might go a bit loopy. It'll certainly have focused a few minds on realising that life is short and extra time to do all of those fun things cannot be taken for granted. followed by a 1929 style crash and the second great depression. Ended only by a world war. sadly not too far fetched And here's me sat at home worrying about not being able to play golf for a month
|
|
macq
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,924
Likes: 1,191
|
Post by macq on Nov 14, 2020 13:18:56 GMT
I never quite buy the oft-stated economists fear of deflation leading to people delaying purchases. Most consumers aren't particularly rational in how and when they buy products/services, and it seems rather far-fetched to me to imagine them en masse saying "no, I'll wait a year, as that new dishwasher will be 1.2% cheaper by then" FWIW, I lean more towards the opposite, roaring 20's hypothesis. If we are all released from the shackles of COVID & confinement, well I think people might go a bit loopy. It'll certainly have focused a few minds on realising that life is short and extra time to do all of those fun things cannot be taken for granted. followed by a 1929 style crash and the second great depression. Ended only by a world war. sadly not too far fetched shows how confused things are at the moment as i thumbed up the post even when worrying about what you wrote 
|
|
sd2
Member of DD Central
Posts: 621
Likes: 224
|
Post by sd2 on Nov 15, 2020 10:04:07 GMT
As an aside the assumption that there is need to pay back is not necessarily correct. Quantitative easing on a massive scale should lead to hyperinflation. There is no sign of that. Bought in bonds need to be cancelled. Make the debt disappear. The option of reissuing/selling the debt is not available as it would result in reducing the money supply. A monetarists policy resulting in inflation falling below zero and everyone going, I will wait until the prices fall further. Which will happen because nobody is buying. A depression awaits. And nobody will have any of my 2.5 years worth firewood as I have got a shotgun license and have bought a shotgun. I think I have gone of topic. I never quite buy the oft-stated economists fear of deflation leading to people delaying purchases. Most consumers aren't particularly rational in how and when they buy products/services, and it seems rather far-fetched to me to imagine them en masse saying "no, I'll wait a year, as that new dishwasher will be 1.2% cheaper by then" FWIW, I lean more towards the opposite, roaring 20's hypothesis. If we are all released from the shackles of COVID & confinement, well I think people might go a bit loopy. It'll certainly have focused a few minds on realising that life is short and extra time to do all of those fun things cannot be taken for granted. In every recession car prices fall ie negative and i have heard people say i will wait to buy as car prices are falling. The depression of the 30s deflation minus 10% in 1930 and 1931 and 1932. The latter is of course the actual cause of the depression. If in a recession people are less likely to buy in the first place. As an aside we have already been released once from the "shackles of COVID & confinement" at least in part. Nothing much happened because people were worried about there jobs. As an extra aside it turns out that at times they do "delete" bonds bought during quantitative easing, they call it "retiring" the debt!
|
|
