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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2020 11:26:11 GMT
What frustrates me further is that same energy could be doing something useful to enhance the life of all. I offer as an example
It all seems so ungenerous and selfish. I'm trying not to be unpleasant but the miners are like people who pollute the river down stream so they can wash their cattle more easily. The users are merely those who enable this action.
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macq
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Post by macq on Dec 12, 2020 11:48:11 GMT
It all seems so ungenerous and selfish. I'm trying not to be unpleasant but the miners are like people who pollute the river down stream so they can wash their cattle more easily. The users are merely those who enable this action.
Its a bit like those billionaire yanks obsessed with space.
Would be nice if they looked a bit closer to home. Many people on this Earth could do with the time, effort and money they are wasting on willy-waving space exploration.
Does gravity have any effect on willy waving in space? 
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macq
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Post by macq on Dec 12, 2020 12:07:59 GMT
Does gravity have any effect on willy waving in space?
I suggest you start a P2P loan, we'll all chip in and send you to find out.  i have seen dafter ideas for a loan but i am a bit worried about what i would have to use as a guarantee!
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Dec 12, 2020 12:16:34 GMT
This. Both parts. A currency - of any form - only has value to the extent that people are prepared to accept it in exchange for something of value (goods/services). What is the set of credible events that mean that BitCoin going to get to that point ? Or indeed any other CryptoCurrency whose value is not directly tied to a currency issued by a major sovereign state with virtually unlimited tax raising abilities (to .e.g stand behind sovereign issued debt) ? Which of course is one of the root causes of why the earlier point - volatility - is valid
Crypto-currency is the 21st century barter currency. Its the techie equivalent to "I'll sell you this iPhone for two cows and half a goat"
It is complete stupidity to even think about putting Bitcoin (or any other crypto) on a pedestal and trying to suggest its a viable alternative to established sovereign currencies.
Even in countries where the currency is falling apart. What's the chap in front of you going to take if you offer him the choice between USD or crypto ? Its going to be USD every, single, time.
What's the universal border-official-convincing currency ? USD. And I'd hazard a guess that despite crypto being less traceable, they'll still much rather take that 20 dollar note from between the pages of your passport every, single, time.
I like the barter analogy, but who is, and how would they, or what might stop cows and goats being currency (apart from people being spooked and not touching it for no real reason - and would that happen anyway)? Naive question?? Is bribing a go-to framework for discerning the value of something? (FTR I'm not invested or considering doing so currently).
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Dec 12, 2020 14:37:03 GMT
I think proof-of-work is becoming one of the real issues with bitcoin, the electrical energy input into mining bitcoin is huge. From 18 months ago it was estimated to be around the same as Switzerland ( BBC: Bitcoin's energy consumption 'equals that of Switzerland') and I expect it's only increased in the time since. There have been other blockchains looking at alternatives to proof-of-work to build the blockchain. Proof-of-stake seems to be one interesting concept where nodes compete for the next block based on the coins they hold rather than the numbers of calculations they perform. I think there are probably some issues to work out there, partly around how well the technology works and also in terms of user motivation. If there was a way to have the proof-of-work algorithms simultaneously building a blockchain and doing some real-world problem solving then that would be interesting. However I suspect the needs for a blockchain to drive a stable currency won't be that compatible with much problem solving where changes potentially need to be made often and quickly. For my money - crypto or fiat - this is the problem with BTC. (Plus the inherent delays, albeit workarounds are available as described upthread) There are several alternatives to proof-of-work to facilitate the underlying ledger, all of which are more planet-friendly in terms of power consumption and which, individually, have their own various advantages over other aspects of the ledger such as speed, security and fairness. Personal 'favorite' is the virtual-voting algo - or gossip-about-gossip - used by Hedera's Hashgraph, but that's getting outside of the original premise of the thread and I don't think anyone is suggesting anything other than that parts of BTC's underlying technology sucks bigger than a black-hole, so it's a moot point, anyway.) Back on track, FWIW - and that's a big fat zero in real terms - my views are: Will a single 'crypto-currency' ultimately become a new world 'standard', in the same way gold, Sterling, USD, EUR were / are? Yes. Unlikely to be called 'crypto-currency' as that's far too niche and already carries too much bad press, but it will resemble BTC more closely than something 'traditional' like EUR or USD. When will this be? No idea. As a complete replacement, not in my lifetime and probably not even this century; although I wouldn't be at all surprised if there hadn't been at least one attempt at an 'all-G20' (or whatever the number is at the time) crypto-currency equivalent before 2100. Will it be BTC? No. It will be usurped by something which is mandated and controlled; BTC will not be allowed take over for political reasons, even if it does migrate away from its ridiculous proof-of-work foundation. Will BTC reach $100,000? Maybe. It would only take a five-fold increase from current levels. By Dec 2017, BTC had increased 20-fold to reach c. $20k in under a year. It then lost 85% of that 'value' over the same timeframe before regaining it over the last two years. Given the current lack of 'real-world' usage there would appear to still be enough speculative demand so long as it doesn't shift to the next 'bubble', it could. Am I betting BTC will reach $100,000 in the next two years? No. But I'm happy to trade the volatility wherever it ends up. Just my 10¢ シ542 worth ....  EDIT: I haven't missed the 'de-centralised' aspect of BTC and the possibility (desire?) for it to support some kind of 'new world order' - I just don't think that particular revolution will ever arrive.
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ribs
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Post by ribs on Dec 12, 2020 18:07:26 GMT
My concern about the mining is the shear amount of energy used nearly all of which is carbon based. Reminds me of the Russian in the shed in the winter who had to burn everything to keep warm including the shed. Lets have more bitcoin so we can have less human habital planet.
Yes absolutely.
In the non crypto-mining world, your average western datacentre will top-out at around 10Kw per footprint (and event that top end is relatively rare, its only the cloud providers who hit that with their super-high-density setups).
Meanwhile in crypto world, a single mining server can easily eat 3-5Kw on its own. Of course a single mining server won't get you much crypto ... so a few multiplications later and you're looking at a  load of power.
Its also why you'll typically only find crypto minining datacentres in cold places or next to hydro dams. Because any of the traditional cooling methods would be prohibitively expensive.
It's nothing to do with cooling, it's to do with cost. Some dams are in warm climates. I've heard of some mining farms in Iceland, and data centres as well, but I'm too lazy to look that up right now, and I suspect those locations are due to cooling concerns.
Hydro electric energy is very cheap. And very often they have excess/waste energy which they simply cannot sell or use and it goes to waste. Set up a mining location at the dam and you can get a good rate.
That's not to say that Bitcoin has zero carbon footprint. Every economic activity has a carbon footprint.
Is anyone here angry about the carbon footprint of the banks offering 0.10% APR rate on their investments? Or the financial system that creates currency out of thin air, devaluing your holdings?
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ribs
Probably not James Marshall
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Post by ribs on Dec 12, 2020 18:20:20 GMT
What frustrates me further is that same energy could be doing something useful to enhance the life of all. I offer as an example
It all seems so ungenerous and selfish. I'm trying not to be unpleasant but the miners are like people who pollute the river down stream so they can wash their cattle more easily. The users are merely those who enable this action.
On the flip side of that, many would argue that Bitcoin's attempt at fixing money is for the "good of humanity". Others view it as a "waste".
Genuine comment: If you can legitimately solve this problem of securing decentralised money, and somehow curing cancer or something at the same time, you'll be a hero.
The problem is trust.
Whatever solution you come up with absolutely must take into account bad actors, and incentivise good behaviour. It must be trustless, and decentralised; you can't say "let's let ribs run things!" as then we're back to me buying yachts and jets, you need to achieve rules without rulers, there can be no human saying "yeah, that's okay", which is a huge issue... The Bitcoin mining model does achieve that, and it makes it very nearly impossible to reverse or otherwise cheat transactions or the wider network.
I've seen other things like proof of stake, but I'm not sold on them just yet, as that seems to just cede power to the richest people on the network, which is a step backwards. It's a really difficult problem to solve.
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ribs
Probably not James Marshall
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Post by ribs on Dec 12, 2020 18:44:59 GMT
You mention being disappointed in the negative reaction (but i am guessing not surprised) but i think many have no problem with it as an investment in the same way as Gold,art,stamps,football progs etc and good luck to people - but anybody holding coin now does not what it to become stable or a fixed price they went it to behave as a commodity and to keep on going up (forever i guess would be the hope) But like your mention here of lightning network its the practical side that has most people scratching their head.How if as you forecast BC at 100K in a few years and presumably you hope it keeps rising after that do you use it as a stable currency no matter how fast the network? Will there be an exchange rate and tied to what the evil dollar or pound? if i go in Tesco with my pound and the sticker says £1 for a pack of sweets how will i know what it will cost in BC and if the supply of coin is limited how do i know i will even have any? Who knows what will happen in the future regarding the price. It might be zero, it might be $19k-ish where it sits now, in a few years time it might find it's feet and settle down.
Maybe, in years to come, bitcoin will be the stable asset, and it'll be pounds and dollars which fall in value. With 2% "inflation" every year, that's not exactly outside the realm of possibility.
I don't understand this point. You can buy/earn fractions of a bitcoin. Right down to fractions of a penny. Even if the price is something crazy like $1m, you'll still be able to buy $10 worth.
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ribs
Probably not James Marshall
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Post by ribs on Dec 12, 2020 19:11:30 GMT
I'm afraid you are a tuliper.
Any person from the crypto side of the debate that opens their justificatory statements with "opt-out from the corrupt system we are currently under" is, unfortunately, merely digging themselves in to a deeper hole. Because that argument is little more than tin-foil-hat bullshit.
No need to be afraid.
Don't forget what happened in Greece during the financial crisis. Greece was not some backwater 3rd world country; they were first world, wealthy, living it large, just like the rest of us. Then average citizens were told to take a hair cut; "Live 20% less please, sir. Yeah, I know you were saving for your retirement but you're rich above a certain threshold so we're taking it because we couldn't do our jobs properly". If that's not corruption and theft, then I don't know what is. If I were a Greek I'd be angry as all hell. And then tell me, with a straight face, after everything that's happened in 2020, and god only know what will happen in 2021 onwards, that it's utterly impossible for something horrendous to happen in the UK.
I've got my insurance policy. And if Bitcoin hits literally £0 tomorrow, Tuplier or not, I'll be just fine. Although I'll be sad. But I'll be fine financially.
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macq
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Post by macq on Dec 12, 2020 19:32:30 GMT
You mention being disappointed in the negative reaction (but i am guessing not surprised) but i think many have no problem with it as an investment in the same way as Gold,art,stamps,football progs etc and good luck to people - but anybody holding coin now does not what it to become stable or a fixed price they went it to behave as a commodity and to keep on going up (forever i guess would be the hope) But like your mention here of lightning network its the practical side that has most people scratching their head.How if as you forecast BC at 100K in a few years and presumably you hope it keeps rising after that do you use it as a stable currency no matter how fast the network? Will there be an exchange rate and tied to what the evil dollar or pound? if i go in Tesco with my pound and the sticker says £1 for a pack of sweets how will i know what it will cost in BC and if the supply of coin is limited how do i know i will even have any? Who knows what will happen in the future regarding the price. It might be zero, it might be $19k-ish where it sits now, in a few years time it might find it's feet and settle down.
Maybe, in years to come, bitcoin will be the stable asset, and it'll be pounds and dollars which fall in value. With 2% "inflation" every year, that's not exactly outside the realm of possibility.
I don't understand this point. You can buy/earn fractions of a bitcoin. Right down to fractions of a penny. Even if the price is something crazy like $1m, you'll still be able to buy $10 worth.
fair point as while i knew there were smaller coins i still thought they were capped but understand your explanation. As regards the price i must admit i do not buy into the altruistic reasons given by most investors for holding and if they just said i have made money or hoping to make money that would be more honest (and understandable) To be fair as much as you are against Govt printing free money you normally then mention the 0.5% on a savings account so guess its a foot in both camps as you see BC as an investment rather then a coin to put into a savings account. So would still contend that the price will never be stable or settle down as the people holding it now or in the future want the price to increase the same as any commodity - so the price will always change up or down as its traded (but guessing we agree to disagree)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2020 12:01:04 GMT
It's a really difficult problem to solve.
I agree.
I genuinly believe that the opportunities to make money in the normal stock market are so great and have been so great for the last 30 years that you really don't need to join in with this sort of deal. However, I do understand that if you lack confidence or trust in the such markets then what else is there to with spare money. I have had this very conversation with two close family members recently and both felt very let down by your typical IFA and by P2P.
We reviewed how they went about choosing the IFA and what deal they negotiated and we discovered that they had merely bought the deal offered rather than told the IFA what they want. They came to this decision because they both lacked education in finances and I suspect that even if finances were offered at school very few teachers would be available.
Blockchain as a source of trust has certainly been very succesful and is being used by the Greek government to finally sort out land ownership.
I wish you great luck with any blockchain currency, I see it as of doubtful provenance and lack the courage to use it but like any elevator, if it takes you upwards grab it.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 18, 2020 11:57:54 GMT
Apologies ribs for not being back in touch, only just caught up now. I think probably most of the ground that isn't just a slanging match has been covered really. It's certainly been interesting. I guess here's wot I learned/still think/now think, in handy FAQ form - not that anyone asked for it, but you can all have it anyway. ------------------------------------- Is bitcoin a solution to taking power out of Government hands to inflate away our hard won money? Not in my opinion. In my opinion, it's not even a currency and so can't be measured in this way. Bitcoin is up 169% in the last year. If BTC was a currency it would be one in hyperinflation. As it is, it's going up because of lots of different people having reason to buy it. Ideological believers, cynical traders, misguided safe-haven seekers, and probably more. It's a speculative investment. Could it be, if it was stable? Still no, not really. If it stopped bouncing up and down, it would be very unpopular because... Is bitcoin really actually useful right now in most real world cases? Come on, let's be honest, it's really not. Is it easy to buy, store, and use? God, no. Might it be more useful when it's improved a bit? Current problems listed include (but are not limited to) an outmoded method of generation, difficulty in purchase, storage and exchange, security risks, volatility and environmental impact. I can imagine some of those being improved upon, but I think it's going be easier to start afresh. Is it a good thing to invest in to make actual money? Maybe, if you're very good at trading. Some (including me) thought it would never get anywhere 20,000 again and were wrong. I no longer think holding BTC is a totally ridiculous proposition, though personally I'm still not going to be buying it as I still think it could go to zero one day. Is crypto the future? Yes, probably. As per irobot (I think), probably in some form more palatable to Governments of the day. Can bitcoin wrest control from Governments against their will? It seems very unlikely. First, it would have to overcome the very real problems it has in being used as money (listed above), and then it would have to be the vanguard of a social revolution. Can some other, better, form of crypto do that? Well, never say never. If it was somehow stable and usable, and perhaps if there was a global crisis in all other major real currencies concurrently. There is a lot of social rebellion in the world at present, it could find a voice in something like this. I think it'd probably end up in something far more hairy and real like the Arab spring though, as Governments would inevitably try to intervene before it got too serious. At the end of the day, Governments have guns and the army and stuff. If crypto genuinely threatens the current monetary system, they can just make it illegal to use, or hold, or exchange. Whatever, I don't know. Anyway, it would leave those people holding it the collective option of continuing to have fun buying and selling it like pogs, or starting a very real in-person non-digital uprising. I don't entirely discount something like that happening. Big, scary, things happen in the world as we've seen this year. I tell you what though. As the alternative to prolonged internecine crypto-inspired global warfare, I think I'm going to side with hoping to live out my days tolerating a little bit of inflation now and again. |
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Post by bracknellboy on Dec 23, 2020 8:49:38 GMT
I'm naturally inclined to think that the application of Blockchain technology to this type of problem is inherently more beneficial/satisfying than chewing up resources to "mine" for a virtual currency.
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Post by mfaxford on Dec 23, 2020 10:34:15 GMT
I'm naturally inclined to think that the application of Blockchain technology to this type of problem is inherently more beneficial/satisfying ... I've heard suggestions of blockchain being used for things like healthcare before and it makes for an interesting use case. The other areas often talked about are supply chain/ manufacturing/ product tracking which has a lot of similarities. Some of the previous comments about wallet security could still apply, in particular what happens if you lost access to the app on your smartphone if you've not backed up the keys somehow - you could end up losing access to all your health records with no way to recover them. ... than chewing up resources to "mine" for a virtual currency. This might be mixing up the constituent parts of blockchain and bitcoin (or at least mis-representing them). In bitcoin, blockchain is a method of recording the transactions in a public distributed ledger. The "chewing up resources" aspect is a method of securing that public ledger (blockchain) where none of the parties trust each other. You could theoretically secure the blockchain with a less wasteful system (Proof of Stake is attempting to do this on some blockchains) but I'm not sure there's enough evidence yet on how well they work for a functioning currency. From a quick read around Hedera Hashgraph which was mentioned previously it looks like this might also not yet be suitable for a public distributed blockchain. In a private blockchain (as I expect the IBM Digital Health Pass would be) you only have a small number of trusted parties adding to the blockchain so there's not the same need to secure it through something like Proof of Work. I think there have also been groups looking at currencies using a private blockchain which also wouldn't need the same wasteful effort (mostly these are linked into existing financial corporations). Of course if you did want to have a public distributed healthcare block chain that might need something "chewing up resources" to secure it, but how would you get people to participate if there's no reward?
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jan 2, 2021 19:38:43 GMT
New all time high of $30,000 (up 400% on the year)
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load of power.
