|
Post by df on Nov 6, 2021 1:12:12 GMT
It seems somewhat optimistic to list any loan currently (never has 'past performance is no guarantee blah blah... ever been more relevant) maybe even more so with this particular one. Perhaps I am wrong and it will fly off the shelf. I will be nothing more than a curious observer myself. However should ablrate decide to form a posse to hunt down the plot they seem to have lost, I would be happy to saddle up. Nothing will be flying until fuel supply is restored.
|
|
GreenZero
Member of DD Central
The early bird may get the worm, but it's the second mouse who gets the cheese
Posts: 221
Likes: 313
|
Post by GreenZero on Nov 6, 2021 8:53:04 GMT
It seems somewhat optimistic to list any loan currently (never has 'past performance is no guarantee blah blah... ever been more relevant) maybe even more so with this particular one. Perhaps I am wrong and it will fly off the shelf. I will be nothing more than a curious observer myself. However should ablrate decide to form a posse to hunt down the plot they seem to have lost, I would be happy to saddle up. Nothing will be flying until fuel supply is restored. I know where there is two rusty old planes going cheap #1000094
|
|
dave4
Member of DD Central
Cynical is a hobby not a lifestyle
Posts: 1,002
Likes: 571
Member is Online
|
Post by dave4 on Nov 6, 2021 9:18:02 GMT
Nothing will be flying until fuel supply is restored. I know where there is two rusty old planes going cheap #1000094 I believe #1000094 may prefer the term "vintage" planes.
|
|
brianlom1
Member of DD Central
He's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy!
Posts: 384
Likes: 386
|
Post by brianlom1 on Nov 6, 2021 9:20:44 GMT
It seems somewhat optimistic to list any loan currently (never has 'past performance is no guarantee blah blah... ever been more relevant) maybe even more so with this particular one. Perhaps I am wrong and it will fly off the shelf. I will be nothing more than a curious observer myself. However should ablrate decide to form a posse to hunt down the plot they seem to have lost, I would be happy to saddle up. My initial reaction was along similar lines but maybe there's another way to look at the situation: the loan will fill (albeit with assistance from the underwriters), the AF situation will be resolved (otherwise the platform is doomed), there will then be money looking for a home on the SM
|
|
|
Post by westcountry on Nov 6, 2021 11:34:19 GMT
It seems somewhat optimistic to list any loan currently (never has 'past performance is no guarantee blah blah... ever been more relevant) maybe even more so with this particular one. Perhaps I am wrong and it will fly off the shelf. I will be nothing more than a curious observer myself. However should ablrate decide to form a posse to hunt down the plot they seem to have lost, I would be happy to saddle up. My initial reaction was along similar lines but maybe there's another way to look at the situation: the loan will fill (albeit with assistance from the underwriters), the AF situation will be resolved (otherwise the platform is doomed), there will then be money looking for a home on the SM You're right that this loan will fill (probably heavily underwritten), and the AF situation should be resolved (I hope so!), but I'm not sure that this will then lead to investors buying loans on the SM. I've got a lot of money in the AF loans, and once they're tradeable again, my inclination is to sell some of my AF loans on the SM (and withdraw the proceeds), to reduce my exposure to both AF and ABLRate generally. Should this view be widespread, then rather than the AF situation being resolved leading to more buying/investing on ABLRate, it may have the opposite effect.
|
|
brianlom1
Member of DD Central
He's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy!
Posts: 384
Likes: 386
|
Post by brianlom1 on Nov 6, 2021 12:39:22 GMT
My initial reaction was along similar lines but maybe there's another way to look at the situation: the loan will fill (albeit with assistance from the underwriters), the AF situation will be resolved (otherwise the platform is doomed), there will then be money looking for a home on the SM You're right that this loan will fill (probably heavily underwritten), and the AF situation should be resolved (I hope so!), but I'm not sure that this will then lead to investors buying loans on the SM. I've got a lot of money in the AF loans, and once they're tradeable again, my inclination is to sell some of my AF loans on the SM (and withdraw the proceeds), to reduce my exposure to both AF and ABLRate generally. Should this view be widespread, then rather than the AF situation being resolved leading to more buying/investing on ABLRate, it may have the opposite effect. With regard to standard accounts, I'm sure you will not be alone - with regard to IFISA and SIPP accounts, there may be good reasons to leave funds on the platform. Either way, the main point is that a decision that looks strange from the perspective of lenders (launching new loans when we have no spare cash to invest) may not look quite so strange when viewed from the perspective of the platform.
|
|
|
Post by df on Nov 6, 2021 22:32:56 GMT
Nothing will be flying until fuel supply is restored. I know where there is two rusty old planes going cheap #1000094 At least we know they exist and where they are it could help if somebody buys them, but i think the future of AFs will play the major role in shaping the investment pattern.
|
|
blender
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,719
Likes: 4,272
|
Post by blender on Nov 7, 2021 11:33:45 GMT
I know where there is two rusty old planes going cheap #1000094 At least we know they exist and where they are it could help if somebody buys them, but i think the future of AFs will play the major role in shaping the investment pattern.A bit of an understatement there. I follow the true Messiah, brianlom1 , in believing that the AF issue is an existential threat. It can't be diluted by a few quick property loans.
|
|
p2pfan
Member of DD Central
Full-Time Investor
Posts: 739
Likes: 830
|
Post by p2pfan on Nov 7, 2021 23:33:50 GMT
At least we know they exist and where they are it could help if somebody buys them, but i think the future of AFs will play the major role in shaping the investment pattern.A bit of an understatement there. I follow the true Messiah, brianlom1 , in believing that the AF issue is an existential threat. It can't be diluted by a few quick property loans. I would second that. One-third of my loans via Ablrate were to the AF loans (yes, stupid me for trusting and having faith in what anyone says in P2P lending). I've lost a lot of interest because this borrower has been refusing to pay his monthly interest for many months now, and it'll be devastating for me - as I fear it will be for many others - if the AF loans continue to screw their lenders over. If they default altogether, I dread to think of what would happen. Come on Ablrate, sort out this long-standing mess.
|
|
|
Post by Ace on Nov 8, 2021 15:07:14 GMT
Back to the new tranche of the gym loan...
The main concern for me here is the very large amount of debt that the company is carrying, and the high cost to service that debt. It's paying 24% pa plus fees on the Ablrate debt, and presumably even more on the huddle debt. It's not due to make a profit until year 2, when the profit is forecast to be small, and another small profit in year 3. Those profit forecasts could easily be eroded by small changes to the assumed income.
It's also a bit worrying that the size of the Ablrate debt in the management accounts doesn't agree with the outstanding capital on the Ablrate website. It only differs by a couple of £k, but even so...
So, the real issue here is, if the company doesn't succeed (which I hope it does), how will our security standup? It seems to me that the only real element of security during a default situation would be the equitable charges on the properties. Assuming the next payment is made (due on 15th), the total outstanding Ablrate debt would be about £375k + £300k = £675k. Our residue security on the properties was £537k at the Feb 2021 valuations. I prefer to take the 90 day valuations of £482k, which would leave an LTV of 140%. I suppose you could reasonably reduce that a little to account for general property price increases since Feb, but even so it would still take somewhere around 18 months of steady amortisation to take us to the 100% LTV level.
I don't really fully understand how difficult it would be for Ablrate to realise the security, other than the fact that it would require a court order to do so. I imagine that Ablrate would be up to the task if needed.
Another concern is that they are already considering an expansion, so, presumably, even more debt!
If anyone could paint a rosier picture than I seem to have managed I'd be glad to see it.
|
|
|
Post by df on Nov 8, 2021 16:28:29 GMT
Back to the new tranche of the gym loan... The main concern for me here is the very large amount of debt that the company is carrying, and the high cost to service that debt. It's paying 24% pa plus fees on the Ablrate debt, and presumably even more on the huddle debt. It's not due to make a profit until year 2, when the profit is forecast to be small, and another small profit in year 3. Those profit forecasts could easily be eroded by small changes to the assumed income. It's also a bit worrying that the size of the Ablrate debt in the management accounts doesn't agree with the outstanding capital on the Ablrate website. It only differs by a couple of £k, but even so... So, the real issue here is, if the company doesn't succeed (which I hope it does), how will our security standup? It seems to me that the only real element of security during a default situation would be the equitable charges on the properties. Assuming the next payment is made (due on 15th), the total outstanding Ablrate debt would be about £375k + £300k = £675k. Our residue security on the properties was £537k at the Feb 2021 valuations. I prefer to take the 90 day valuations of £482k, which would leave an LTV of 140%. I suppose you could reasonably reduce that a little to account for general property price increases since Feb, but even so it would still take somewhere around 18 months of steady amortisation to take us to the 100% LTV level. I don't really fully understand how difficult it would be for Ablrate to realise the security, other than the fact that it would require a court order to do so. I imagine that Ablrate would be up to the task if needed. Another concern is that they are already considering an expansion, so, presumably, even more debt! If anyone could paint a rosier picture than I seem to have managed I'd be glad to see it. I wish I could, but nothing comes to mind to brighten your picture. I've involved myself in 163 as I always did in unsecured loans on LC, FC, Rebs, HC etc. - very little amount per loan/borrower that in the event of 100% loss won't have much of an impact on my overall p2p performance... this strategy has worked for me so far because of high volume of diversification across unsecured SME loans portfolio. I don't think I have an excuse to get involved in gym tranche II Besides, due to repayment shortages my "available funds" are below the minimum atm
|
|
GreenZero
Member of DD Central
The early bird may get the worm, but it's the second mouse who gets the cheese
Posts: 221
Likes: 313
|
Post by GreenZero on Nov 8, 2021 17:14:46 GMT
One thing I would add relates to security.
When I previously looked at this loan, I queried the valuations of the properties. The proposal puts the combined value of the three properties at £1,235k, which seems somewhat generous on properties one and two. Also with property 3 being a rental property and unlikely to sell quickly or above market value.
|
|
markyg61
Member of DD Central
Posts: 339
Likes: 237
|
Post by markyg61 on Nov 10, 2021 12:03:35 GMT
I see 172 is flying off the shelf, NOT.
I cant see the existing loan offerings filling anytime soon (unless by underwriters) untill they sort out the AF loans. Too many people have too much invested in AF loans to risk on future opportunities.
Just my view....
|
|
starfished
Member of DD Central
Posts: 296
Likes: 216
|
Post by starfished on Nov 10, 2021 14:54:04 GMT
It may be impacting others but I don't think I received a notification of launch for 172...
|
|
woodie
Member of DD Central
Posts: 120
Likes: 78
|
Post by woodie on Nov 15, 2021 18:35:12 GMT
It's 18.30 and no repayment (or news) re 163.
Who do they think will now invest in 172 ?
|
|