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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 30, 2014 10:44:08 GMT
Sl75 .. "The former issue with having to switch it off in order to sell stuff is no longer the case."
.. thanks for the update, you can see how often I visit / turn on autobid!! That is one fix .. now we just need the other half dozen and we'll have a viable tool. Start with some more granularity on bid sizes &/or numbers?
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is
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Post by is on Dec 30, 2014 10:54:22 GMT
Many thanks for informative replies. I understand the manual vs automatic bidding process much better now. I guess common issues apply across most p2p platforms where automatic bidding is involved. I would like autobid tool to work well, simply because I just won't have the time to bid manually. It will take up too much time. However I see the potential disadvantages. Have there been any statistics in terms of autobid users' return vs manual? It would be interesting if there was any data. What rate of return should one expect from FC in general? It give an average rate of 6.4%, I think, but I presume manual bidders outperform it significantly? I note that it is possible to get a consistently higher rate (closer to 10%) with many other p2p sites (such as thincats, assetz capital, rebuilding society etc). Why not just use those and save the headache of manual bidding on fc for potentially outperforming 6.4%? Presumably when the p2p market matures, the rates will settle across most platforms eventually, at some similar number? My FC return (with a couple of years track record) is stable in range of 15-16% (after fees and defaults, on a large portfolio), beating that of other platforms for the moment. However FC requires a lot more time and effort (but that is part of the fun). If you want to invest an extra £100k quickly Assetz is a much easier place, but is possible on FC at the correct point in the liquidity cycle. Another factor is that my 15% on FC is equivalent to 20% I would need to get on Assetz on pre-tax basis, given the lack of markup income there.
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Post by valueinvestor123 on Dec 31, 2014 0:46:55 GMT
"Another factor is that my 15% on FC is equivalent to 20% I would need to get on Assetz on pre-tax basis, given the lack of markup income there." I don't think they withhold taxes anymore at Assetz: p2pindependentforum.com/thread/1838/update-on-withholding-tax-issueEither way, it's a HUGE return compared to average. So there must still be a lot of arbitrage going on at FC at someone's expense. I presume this return is without autobid on. |
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blender
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Post by blender on Dec 31, 2014 9:58:32 GMT
My FC return (with a couple of years track record) is stable in range of 15-16% (after fees and defaults, on a large portfolio), beating that of other platforms for the moment. However FC requires a lot more time and effort (but that is part of the fun). ... Yes, but how is your liquidity? Could you exit now and retain your 15-16%? The return is not made until the portfolio is sold. Mine is also at a peak, rather lower, but I will need some more special offers from FC in the new year to hold the figure.
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Post by goldservice on Dec 31, 2014 11:27:59 GMT
is said "My FC return (with a couple of years track record) is stable in range of 15-16% (after fees and defaults ..."
I know that one way to get such a handsome return is through flipping. In my limited experience, flipping requires keeping a sum liquid ie not earning any interest. Does your 15% factor in non-earning amounts? If so, do please share how you achieve it.
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Post by valueinvestor123 on Dec 31, 2014 12:08:22 GMT
Do you just go for a selection of C & C- loans and ignore A loans to have a higher return? I would be happy with up to 10%. Is this possible with autobid at all?
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blender
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Post by blender on Dec 31, 2014 13:07:30 GMT
... I would be happy with up to 10%. Is this possible with autobid at all? If you find a way to do that after fees and losses (even before tax) by setting and forgetting Autobid, then please share the method with your good buddies on this forum.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 31, 2014 13:07:42 GMT
You won't get there with C- and Cs unless you are very lucky (look at the FC predictions for defaults, and remember the top rate is mysteriously pegged at 15%. Don't forget the 1% fee either). You might manage it with As or A+s, if you can acquire a whole truckload yielding 12%+ (which was possible at auction, or even on the SM, not too long ago). The odd 2% cashback helps a lot too.
To get the 15% IS talks about you need to trade / flip / whatever you call it .. i.e. you need to pile in to some high yielding loan parts, in large volume (forget 1% of capital, more like 10-20%) and then shift them on the SM, ideally at +3% markup, within a few days .. if you can make 3% on even 10% of your capital once a week, you are home and dry. Not going to work this week though - nothing to buy (liquidating portfolio not a problem - refilling it with high rate parts to have something worth selling, much more of an issue!).
That's another issue with current autobid - you can't 'set and forget' because it has no concept of 'market rate' like RS has. Last month you could snag some autobid A+ parts at 10% or 11%+, no problem .. this week/month/until further notice you'd be lucky to land even one loan at those settings, rates are currently well down. (Loan #10,000 is starting to look more like 5/Feb than 5/Jan, but I expect it'll swing back really fast).
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Post by davee39 on Dec 31, 2014 14:15:24 GMT
It seems to be challenging to get a quick flip at +3%. Where loans have recently been accepted with large sums at above the usual rate (Eg A+ with parts at 11%) the SM seems full of parts at markups as low as 0.3% as the flippers compete to sell. I am not sure what they get out of this but I think it makes buying top rates at a small mark-up a better deal than Autobid.
Because I am buying to sell after 3 to 6 months I find that the available markup tends to increase with time as the flippers sell out and move to the next big thing. I am happy to include C rated loans because they will not be held for long, I also tend to only go after loans > £100k. Small loans close at very silly rates. I only buy very occasional C- parts - rate must be > 14% and they are flipped at par just before the first payment is due.
My current Gross Yield is 12.5%, Annualized return 13% (Includes cashback and profits from loan part sales). These values have been fairly steady for several months (ie +/- 0.5%). I also am down to a max of 0.7% in any loan, and am aiming towards 0.5%.
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is
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Post by is on Jan 1, 2015 13:16:02 GMT
"Another factor is that my 15% on FC is equivalent to 20% I would need to get on Assetz on pre-tax basis, given the lack of markup income there." I don't think they withhold taxes anymore at Assetz: p2pindependentforum.com/thread/1838/update-on-withholding-tax-issueEither way, it's a HUGE return compared to average. So there must still be a lot of arbitrage going on at FC at someone's expense. I presume this return is without autobid on. I am talking about sales / cashback being income tax free, rather than the abortive attempt to withhold basic rate tax by a few of Assetz borrowers.
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is
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Post by is on Jan 1, 2015 13:18:37 GMT
is said "My FC return (with a couple of years track record) is stable in range of 15-16% (after fees and defaults ..." I know that one way to get such a handsome return is through flipping. In my limited experience, flipping requires keeping a sum liquid ie not earning any interest. Does your 15% factor in non-earning amounts? If so, do please share how you achieve it. Good point, but with decent carry rates available elsewhere for the low supply periods (e.g. Assetz, SavingStream) you can mitigate. You still lose some interest due to bank transfers out taking 2-3bd.
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is
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Post by is on Jan 1, 2015 13:25:37 GMT
My FC return (with a couple of years track record) is stable in range of 15-16% (after fees and defaults, on a large portfolio), beating that of other platforms for the moment. However FC requires a lot more time and effort (but that is part of the fun). ... Yes, but how is your liquidity? Could you exit now and retain your 15-16%? The return is not made until the portfolio is sold. Mine is also at a peak, rather lower, but I will need some more special offers from FC in the new year to hold the figure. Liquidity is generally pretty good, though subject to the same cycles that help generate profit (as you well know there are definite buy and sell phases). I could cash out in a week if I wanted selling at par, or longer at a profit (got rid of most of my large property holdings a while ago).
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blender
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Post by blender on Jan 1, 2015 21:52:04 GMT
Yes, but how is your liquidity? Could you exit now and retain your 15-16%? The return is not made until the portfolio is sold. Mine is also at a peak, rather lower, but I will need some more special offers from FC in the new year to hold the figure. Liquidity is generally pretty good, though subject to the same cycles that help generate profit (as you well know there are definite buy and sell phases). I could cash out in a week if I wanted selling at par, or longer at a profit (got rid of most of my large property holdings a while ago). Autobid is taking a lot of property loan parts at present - another four days of it to come at least. I think we can expect the next property loans without cash back.
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Jan 2, 2015 13:34:35 GMT
Yep, my property loan parts have been shifting like hot cakes. So much so that I've been accumulating excessive available funds - because there's nothing I want to bid on at the moment. I've even temporarily taken some of the more desirable ones off sale.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jan 2, 2015 13:53:40 GMT
Same here Fasty, but in my book there is no such thing as a desirable property loan once the cash back has been pocketed. I am happily turning them into cash while I can during this selling part of the cycle (which IS has mentioned). New lending opportunities will appear next week, most likely.
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