trium
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Post by trium on Jan 20, 2022 15:26:32 GMT
There has been some discussion about this scattered through the "Cash drag" thread. Just wanted to share an observation or two.
I've been monitoring my loan allocations as a percentage of the total loan to the borrower. I haven't seen that perspective explored before, though perhaps it has been.
While there is some variation (perhaps due to fluctuations in (a) my available cash and (b) total autolend instructions) it seems to me that I am generally allocated a smaller percentage the larger the loan. I find it hard to get my head around that, because if I get less so presumably does everyone else. That just doesn't add up.
My other observation is that after doubling my maxima from £100 to £200 my typical percentage allocation increased by perhaps one-third (available information would suggest double), still exhibiting that same tendency for larger loans to give me proportionally smaller slices.
I may post some figures when I get back to my computer.
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Post by Ace on Jan 20, 2022 15:39:20 GMT
There has been some discussion about this scattered through the "Cash drag" thread. Just wanted to share an observation or two. I've been monitoring my loan allocations as a percentage of the total loan to the borrower. I haven't seen that perspective explored before, though perhaps it has been. While there is some variation (perhaps due to fluctuations in (a) my available cash and (b) total autolend instructions) it seems to me that I am generally allocated a smaller percentage the larger the loan. I find it hard to get my head around that, because if I get less so presumably does everyone else. That just doesn't add up.My other observation is that after doubling my maxima from £100 to £200 my typical percentage allocation increased by perhaps one-third (available information would suggest double), still exhibiting that same tendency for larger loans to give me proportionally smaller slices. I may post some figures when I get back to my computer. Whether you get an allocation in a particular loan is a lottery. If you do get one, then it will be at least £5. So, In a £1k loan ~200 people might get £5ish. In a £2k loan ~400 people might get £5ish, I.e. a lower percentage in a bigger loan. In a £100k loan you would likely get an allocation nearer to your maximum pledge, which would distort the figures in the opposite direction. Trying to nail the exact algorithm is like trying to nail fog. Not that that stops us trying!
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tallsuk
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Post by tallsuk on Jan 20, 2022 15:52:52 GMT
Coincidently, i sat down last night and looked at exactly the same thing.
The loans where I have been given a fiver, which are quite a few do tend to have the largest percentage of the loan, in one my £5 is over 1%. I suspect that means that if they are only allocating a small amount to each person then it is likely to be allocated on a round robin basis. I think that if we were to compare books for £5 loans they may look very different.
For loans larger than than the % offers varies but I can't work out why. For loans where my % is 0.16% to 0.19% the loans vary from about £2.5k to over £100k with the average being about £4.5k (although this is likely to be high due to the small number of loans over £50k).
One key metric was that every loan, my contribution is at least 0.1%. I suspect they are just sharing them round which explains why you might get larger shares in smaller loans even though that appears to be illogical.
With such a large loan volume the law of averages should mean it works out fairly in the end.
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trium
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Post by trium on Jan 20, 2022 17:09:40 GMT
I perhaps should have said that £5 loans have been removed from my dataset, since they will obviously distort the picture. Ace, on a first read of your reply you appear to imply that a ballot determines whether I participate in a particular loan at all. I'm pretty sure that only applies where the allocation is under £5, which appears to me to happen when the loan is approx £3500 or less (variable of course). I would fully expect a slice of today's near-£40k loan without coming through a ballot. I was allocated a tad under 0.1% whereas I get about 0.16% of 4-figure loans. Before I doubled the max amount those figures were lower but in roughly equal proportion. I don't propose that investors lose any sleep over these conundrums. Just love a good puzzle🤔 |
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Post by df on Jan 20, 2022 18:39:36 GMT
I perhaps should have said that £5 loans have been removed from my dataset, since they will obviously distort the picture. Ace , on a first read of your reply you appear to imply that a ballot determines whether I participate in a particular loan at all. I'm pretty sure that only applies where the allocation is under £5, which appears to me to happen when the loan is approx £3500 or less (variable of course). I would fully expect a slice of today's near-£40k loan without coming through a ballot. I was allocated a tad under 0.1% whereas I get about 0.16% of 4-figure loans. Before I doubled the max amount those figures were lower but in roughly equal proportion. I don't propose that investors lose any sleep over these conundrums. Just love a good puzzle🤔 I had only 1 allocation today. I believe it's the same loan you've mentioned (£38935.23). I've got £25.96 of it, my cash balance was £133.97, my setting for "standard/business" loan is £160. UB allocation has always been a puzzle. It would be interesting to compare what the others got allocated for this loan (incl. cash balance and settings).
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Post by Ace on Jan 20, 2022 19:19:48 GMT
I perhaps should have said that £5 loans have been removed from my dataset, since they will obviously distort the picture. Ace , on a first read of your reply you appear to imply that a ballot determines whether I participate in a particular loan at all. I'm pretty sure that only applies where the allocation is under £5, which appears to me to happen when the loan is approx £3500 or less (variable of course). I would fully expect a slice of today's near-£40k loan without coming through a ballot. I was allocated a tad under 0.1% whereas I get about 0.16% of 4-figure loans. Before I doubled the max amount those figures were lower but in roughly equal proportion. I don't propose that investors lose any sleep over these conundrums. Just love a good puzzle🤔 I had only 1 allocation today. I believe it's the same loan you've mentioned (£38935.23). I've got £25.96 of it, my cash balance was £133.97, my setting for "standard/business" loan is £160. UB allocation has always been a puzzle. It would be interesting to compare what the others got allocated for this loan (incl. cash balance and settings). We've been here before and not managed to work it out, or at least I couldn't. Happy to supply my data for brainier types to have a go though. Account 1: allocated £27.72, max allocation setting £500, cash balance prior to allocation £142.79. Account 2: allocated £37.82, max allocation setting £500, cash balance prior to allocation £167.65. Account 3: allocated £9.08, max allocation setting £150, cash balance prior to allocation £29.75. Note the careful wording "cash balance prior to allocation". To calculate this you need to go to the transaction page and subtract any repayments after the allocation, and add the actual allocation, to get the balance prior to the allocation, which I presume is the relevant amount.
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dave4
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Cynical is a hobby not a lifestyle
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Post by dave4 on Jan 20, 2022 19:39:07 GMT
I had only 1 allocation today. I believe it's the same loan you've mentioned (£38935.23). I've got £25.96 of it, my cash balance was £133.97, my setting for "standard/business" loan is £160. UB allocation has always been a puzzle. It would be interesting to compare what the others got allocated for this loan (incl. cash balance and settings). We've been here before and not managed to work it out, or at least I couldn't. Happy to supply my data for brainier types to have a go though. Account 1: allocated £27.72, max allocation setting £500, cash balance prior to allocation £142.79. Account 2: allocated £37.82, max allocation setting £500, cash balance prior to allocation £167.65. Account 3: allocated £9.08, max allocation setting £150, cash balance prior to allocation £29.75. Note the careful wording "cash balance prior to allocation". To calculate this you need to go to the transaction page and subtract any repayments after the allocation, and add the actual allocation, to get the balance prior to the allocation, which I presume is the relevant amount. Allocated £8.30 max setting £25, cash £38.39 (fresh to ub)
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Post by df on Jan 20, 2022 21:05:29 GMT
I had only 1 allocation today. I believe it's the same loan you've mentioned (£38935.23). I've got £25.96 of it, my cash balance was £133.97, my setting for "standard/business" loan is £160. UB allocation has always been a puzzle. It would be interesting to compare what the others got allocated for this loan (incl. cash balance and settings). We've been here before and not managed to work it out, or at least I couldn't. Happy to supply my data for brainier types to have a go though. Account 1: allocated £27.72, max allocation setting £500, cash balance prior to allocation £142.79. Account 2: allocated £37.82, max allocation setting £500, cash balance prior to allocation £167.65. Account 3: allocated £9.08, max allocation setting £150, cash balance prior to allocation £29.75. Note the careful wording "cash balance prior to allocation". To calculate this you need to go to the transaction page and subtract any repayments after the allocation, and add the actual allocation, to get the balance prior to the allocation, which I presume is the relevant amount. Yes, very good point, I didn't look at returns, so it's quite inaccurate. I've had £34.28 repayment today, most of it was the renewal repayment for the same loan  It's probably impossible to work out the exact allocation pattern. One thing is clear from the examples - cash balance is a much more decisive factor than the allocation setting.
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starfished
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Post by starfished on Jan 20, 2022 21:45:47 GMT
I was about to kick off and say I received no loan allocation despite an increasing cash balance! But then realised I have standard/business set to nil (gold se to £150). I do wish they would separate out standard from business loans as I feel differently between those two types.
I am trying to maintain a 40% Gold to 60% Other loans/late ratio. It is proving difficult...
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Post by df on Jan 21, 2022 9:17:54 GMT
I was about to kick off and say I received no loan allocation despite an increasing cash balance! But then realised I have standard/business set to nil (gold se to £150). I do wish they would separate out standard from business loans as I feel differently between those two types. I am trying to maintain a 40% Gold to 60% Other loans/late ratio. It is proving difficult... My current settings are: Gold £360, Standard/Business £160 and Working Capital £110. It's probably difficult to maintain Gold at 40%. There aren't many of them and most are very small. I agree, it would be better to have separate settings for "standard" and "business".
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tallsuk
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Post by tallsuk on Jan 21, 2022 9:43:26 GMT
I had made a deposit the night before so was given £61.09 from a balance of c£340.
Most of the awards are a similar percentage but i think there may be other factors that we are not taking into account and may never know. For example, I hope they are rewarding loyalty in some way.
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