adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 13, 2024 22:12:44 GMT
We are definitely starting to see the consequences domestically: The fact that conscription can even be discussed. The PM of the UK talking about greatest chance of nuclear war and also that the next 5 years will involve more change than the last 30. Conscription has been discussed by a certain swathe of the population since it was binned. "Bring back national service! In my day..."The much vaunted "citizen army" guff from the head of the army was shot down in seconds flat by the MoD, and he was given a right royal bollocking by all his seniors. He's the same one that told the Army in 2022 that they'd have to fight in Europe, too. That doesn't seem to have come to pass. The nuclear war guff was just a way of trying to tie Corbyn to Starmer's neck. The "next five years" guff wasn't even talking about security, but about things like generative AI being some massive opportunity for the UK. Whatevs. Convenient figure, five years. One parliamentary term. Vote for me. PLEASE.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on May 14, 2024 7:08:21 GMT
Do I think Putin would consider this , no way , I think he wants the whole pie, maybe a slice at a time but nothing less. Best outcome is he slips and falls out a window , I know we could get worse but I do not think it can be much worse. Would Russia be better off after the war , well it would face a larger more cohesive European NATO , with or without the USA , with a heavily armed unfriendly buffer state, Ukraine. It's feared invincible army having not performed well against a outnumbered , probably 6 to 1 force in a 3 day war that it did not completely succeed in winning in 3 years. Personally I believe Russia does not want to take western Ukraine and is only interested in areas of Ukraine that have populations that consider themselves Russian and want to be part of the Russian federation*. However the greater the threat that Ukraine poses Russia the larger the amount of territory Russia will take - this is why it is important when Zelensky is replaced they get a new leader who will negotiate with the Russians instead of sending hundreds of thousands of undertrained and underequipped troops to be blown to pieces. As for Europe we have to live with the reality we have a resurgent super power on our borders and instead of trying to piss them off at every opportunity we should try to be diplomatic and respectful towards them - even if they have a different culture and do not want to be part of western liberal democracy or whatever our moral totalitarian system is meant to be called.
* - Part of this is to protect them from the Anti-Russian extremists I have mentioned in my previous posts, part is also because Russian Nationalists like Putin (who is a moderate compared to some people in Russia) are not entirely happy about what happened to their historical lands under the Soviet Union.
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Post by bracknellboy on May 14, 2024 7:39:07 GMT
Do I think Putin would consider this , no way , I think he wants the whole pie, maybe a slice at a time but nothing less. Best outcome is he slips and falls out a window , I know we could get worse but I do not think it can be much worse. Would Russia be better off after the war , well it would face a larger more cohesive European NATO , with or without the USA , with a heavily armed unfriendly buffer state, Ukraine. It's feared invincible army having not performed well against a outnumbered , probably 6 to 1 force in a 3 day war that it did not completely succeed in winning in 3 years. Personally I believe Russia does not want to take western Ukraine and is only interested in areas of Ukraine that have populations that consider themselves Russian and want to be part of the Russian federation*. However the greater the threat that Ukraine poses Russia the larger the amount of territory Russia will take - this is why it is important when Zelensky is replaced they get a new leader who will negotiate with the Russians instead of sending hundreds of thousands of undertrained and underequipped troops to be blown to pieces. As for Europe we have to live with the reality we have a resurgent super power on our borders and instead of trying to piss them off at every opportunity we should try to be diplomatic and respectful towards them - even if they have a different culture and do not want to be part of western liberal democracy or whatever our moral totalitarian system is meant to be called.
* - Part of this is to protect them from the Anti-Russian extremists I have mentioned in my previous posts, part i s also because Russian Nationalists like Putin (who is a moderate compared to some people in Russia) are not entirely happy about what happened to their historical lands under the Soviet Union.I take that to mean not happy with what happened on the dissolution of the Soviet Union ? That very much appears to be the intent, but the wording is ambiguous. Of course nothing happened to Russia's historical lands on the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russia stayed Russia. After all, the Soviet Union was, theoretically, a Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. On the other hand, there are of course quite a lot of people that are unhappy about what did happen to their actual historical lands, and themselves, under the Soviet Union. A few that come to mind are Ukraine itself, Estonia, Latvia, Georgia, Lithuania..... Which is precisely why, when given the chance they left the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics pretty much as fast as they could.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on May 14, 2024 7:52:45 GMT
Personally I believe Russia does not want to take western Ukraine and is only interested in areas of Ukraine that have populations that consider themselves Russian and want to be part of the Russian federation*. However the greater the threat that Ukraine poses Russia the larger the amount of territory Russia will take - this is why it is important when Zelensky is replaced they get a new leader who will negotiate with the Russians instead of sending hundreds of thousands of undertrained and underequipped troops to be blown to pieces. As for Europe we have to live with the reality we have a resurgent super power on our borders and instead of trying to piss them off at every opportunity we should try to be diplomatic and respectful towards them - even if they have a different culture and do not want to be part of western liberal democracy or whatever our moral totalitarian system is meant to be called.
* - Part of this is to protect them from the Anti-Russian extremists I have mentioned in my previous posts, part i s also because Russian Nationalists like Putin (who is a moderate compared to some people in Russia) are not entirely happy about what happened to their historical lands under the Soviet Union. I take that to mean not happy with what happened on the dissolution of the Soviet Union ? That very much appears to be the intent, but the wording is ambiguous. Of course nothing happened to Russia's historical lands on the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russia stayed Russia. After all, the Soviet Union was, theoretically, a Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. On the other hand, there are of course quite a lot of people that are unhappy about what did happen to their actual historical lands, and themselves, under the Soviet Union. A few that come to mind are Ukraine itself, Estonia, Latvia, Georgia, Lithuania..... Which is precisely why, when given the chance they left the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics pretty much as fast as they could. Parts of Russia were transferred by the Soviets for various reasons, but mainly because the Communists did not believe in national identities/boundaries. It would be a bit like the European Union giving parts of Germany away to other countries for political reasons and then when the EU collapses Germany wanting those territories back: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transfer_of_Crimea_in_the_Soviet_Union#:~:text=In%201954%2C%20the%20Presidium%20of,of%20Russia%20and%20Ukraine%20Tercentenary.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 14, 2024 8:23:28 GMT
I take that to mean not happy with what happened on the dissolution of the Soviet Union ? That very much appears to be the intent, but the wording is ambiguous. Of course nothing happened to Russia's historical lands on the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russia stayed Russia. After all, the Soviet Union was, theoretically, a Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. On the other hand, there are of course quite a lot of people that are unhappy about what did happen to their actual historical lands, and themselves, under the Soviet Union. A few that come to mind are Ukraine itself, Estonia, Latvia, Georgia, Lithuania..... Which is precisely why, when given the chance they left the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics pretty much as fast as they could. Parts of Russia were transferred by the Soviets for various reasons, but mainly because the Communists did not believe in national identities/boundaries. It would be a bit like the European Union giving parts of Germany away to other countries for political reasons and then when the EU collapses Germany wanting those territories back: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transfer_of_Crimea_in_the_Soviet_Union#:~:text=In%201954%2C%20the%20Presidium%20of,of%20Russia%20and%20Ukraine%20Tercentenary. Pick your historical starting point to suit your preferred endpoint. "For just over two decades after 1991, Russia did not dispute the Ukrainian administration in Crimea"Also... "During the existence of the Soviet Union, different governments existed within the Crimean Peninsula. From 1921 to 1936, the government in the Crimea was known as the Crimean Autonomous Socialist Soviet Republic and was an Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic within the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (SFSR); from 1936 to 1945, the name was slightly altered to the Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic. As a result of alleged collaboration of Crimean Tatars with Nazi Germany during World War II, all Crimean Tatars were deported by the Soviet regime and the peninsula was resettled with other peoples, mainly Russians and Ukrainians. The autonomous republic was thus left without its titular nationality and was downgraded to an oblast within the Russian SFSR on 30 June 1945. It was subsequently transferred to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954. As a result of a state-sanctioned referendum in 1991, it became again an autonomous republic within the Ukrainian SSR, and then within independent Ukraine after 1992."en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea_in_the_Soviet_Unionand... "In 1783, the Russian Empire annexed Crimea after an earlier war with Turkey. Crimea's strategic position led to the 1854 Crimean War and many short lived regimes following the 1917 Russian Revolution. When the Bolsheviks secured Crimea, it became an autonomous soviet republic within the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. It was occupied by Germany during World War II. When the Soviets retook it in 1944, Crimean Tatars were ethnically cleansed and deported under the orders of Joseph Stalin, in what has been described as a cultural genocide. Crimea was downgraded to an oblast in 1945. In 1954, the USSR transferred the oblast to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic on the 300th anniversary of the Pereyaslav Treaty in 1654."en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CrimeaSo, yes, you can choose to say "but 1954" - forgetting conveniently that that was the end of a status that had lasted for precisely NINE years. Before that, it'd been autonomous (Nazi occupation obvs excluded).
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registerme
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Post by registerme on May 14, 2024 8:59:50 GMT
Seems like a lot of self-determination going on there. Oh, wait a minute...
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 14, 2024 9:19:18 GMT
Seems like a lot of self-determination going on there. Oh, wait a minute... "But not like that."
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on May 14, 2024 9:32:14 GMT
I take that to mean not happy with what happened on the dissolution of the Soviet Union ? That very much appears to be the intent, but the wording is ambiguous. Of course nothing happened to Russia's historical lands on the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russia stayed Russia. After all, the Soviet Union was, theoretically, a Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. On the other hand, there are of course quite a lot of people that are unhappy about what did happen to their actual historical lands, and themselves, under the Soviet Union. A few that come to mind are Ukraine itself, Estonia, Latvia, Georgia, Lithuania..... Which is precisely why, when given the chance they left the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics pretty much as fast as they could. Parts of Russia were transferred by the Soviets for various reasons, but mainly because the Communists did not believe in national identities/boundaries. It would be a bit like the European Union giving parts of Germany away to other countries for political reasons and then when the EU collapses Germany wanting those territories back: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transfer_of_Crimea_in_the_Soviet_Union#:~:text=In%201954%2C%20the%20Presidium%20of,of%20Russia%20and%20Ukraine%20Tercentenary. So obvious issues with 'parts of Russia' in relation to an autonomous republic ethnically cleansed into a partially Russian part of Russia, before becoming a partially Ukrainian part of Ukraine a few years later & then an autonomous part of Ukraine a few decades late. But equally, parts of Germany have indeed been given away for political reasons ie not having another war, Kalingrad being the most pertinent example.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 14, 2024 9:57:45 GMT
But equally, parts of Germany have indeed been given away for political reasons ie not having another war, Kalingrad being the most pertinent example. I was thinking 41 years of DDR, but... Can't imagine they'd look too fondly on the East asking for it back.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on May 14, 2024 10:22:43 GMT
Pick your historical starting point to suit your preferred endpoint.
I do not have a preferred endpoint I am merely pointing out how Russian Nationalists - such as Putin - see things from my understanding of their perspective. My only interest in this situation is to see this war end ASAP since it is very obvious to me the only thing that is going to happen is a large number of Ukrainians are going to be killed in a war they cannot win AND more importantly I do not want to die in a nuclear war. Ukraine and Russias dispute over territory is nothing to do with me and I dont believe in getting involved in things that are not my concern outside of humanitarian and self preservation interests. As you are already aware I am of the view that western meddling in this situation has made it ALOT worse for Ukraine.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on May 14, 2024 11:01:26 GMT
Pick your historical starting point to suit your preferred endpoint.
I do not have a preferred endpoint I am merely pointing out how Russian Nationalists - such as Putin - see things from my understanding of their perspective. My only interest in this situation is to see this war end ASAP since it is very obvious to me the only thing that is going to happen is a large number of Ukrainians are going to be killed in a war they cannot win AND more importantly I do not want to die in a nuclear war. Ukraine and Russias dispute over territory is nothing to do with me and I dont believe in getting involved in things that are not my concern outside of humanitarian and self preservation interests. As you are already aware I am of the view that western meddling in this situation has made it ALOT worse for Ukraine.
What about what Ukraine wants? Does that count with you?
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k6
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Post by k6 on May 14, 2024 11:21:32 GMT
Do I think Putin would consider this , no way , I think he wants the whole pie, maybe a slice at a time but nothing less. Best outcome is he slips and falls out a window , I know we could get worse but I do not think it can be much worse. Would Russia be better off after the war , well it would face a larger more cohesive European NATO , with or without the USA , with a heavily armed unfriendly buffer state, Ukraine. It's feared invincible army having not performed well against a outnumbered , probably 6 to 1 force in a 3 day war that it did not completely succeed in winning in 3 years. Personally I believe Russia does not want to take western Ukraine and is only interested in areas of Ukraine that have populations that consider themselves Russian and want to be part of the Russian federation*. However the greater the threat that Ukraine poses Russia the larger the amount of territory Russia will take - this is why it is important when Zelensky is replaced they get a new leader who will negotiate with the Russians instead of sending hundreds of thousands of undertrained and underequipped troops to be blown to pieces. As for Europe we have to live with the reality we have a resurgent super power on our borders and instead of trying to piss them off at every opportunity we should try to be diplomatic and respectful towards them - even if they have a different culture and do not want to be part of western liberal democracy or whatever our moral totalitarian system is meant to be called.
* - Part of this is to protect them from the Anti-Russian extremists I have mentioned in my previous posts, part is also because Russian Nationalists like Putin (who is a moderate compared to some people in Russia) are not entirely happy about what happened to their historical lands under the Soviet Union. Personally, I think you still spreading false image. Personally, I think russia would love to take whole Ukraine hens the reason to have their own puppets inside. You very familiar with word Puppet I'm guessing. Also, if there are any russians within Ukraine territory and they would love to be a part of NON-great russia then . . . well they know the direction. ah , how much you dislike Zelensky . This guy is really getting on your nerves. There is only one way to negotiate with russia . . . get the F . . . out. The issue putin is having is westernization of their own population. Once Ukraine became War free ( yes , its a WAR , not military operation as you probably still believe ) russian will flock there to have better life or at least they will try
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registerme
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Post by registerme on May 14, 2024 11:37:57 GMT
Yes, I think one of the primary motives for this war was the Putin regime's fear of having a successful, free, Western leaning democracy holding up a mirror to Russia.
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k6
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Post by k6 on May 14, 2024 11:55:49 GMT
Yes, I think one of the primary motives for this war was the Putin regime's fear of having a successful, free, Western leaning democracy holding up a mirror to Russia. Don't you find this obvious. Those who states otherwise are those who already left russia or those who prefer controlled society for their own financial benefit. We know those with deeper pocket live happily outside russia. They send their kids to eastern schools. Imagine Ukraine free , democratic and safe place just boarder to russia. The russian elites fear normality would spread across. ppl will start opposed the ruling government, let alone ppl will find out from books the true face of russia history. Giving up on Ukraine is a slow die for russia and most likely belarus. Look what is happening in Gorgia
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on May 14, 2024 12:52:49 GMT
Personally I believe Russia does not want to take western Ukraine and is only interested in areas of Ukraine that have populations that consider themselves Russian and want to be part of the Russian federation*. However the greater the threat that Ukraine poses Russia the larger the amount of territory Russia will take - this is why it is important when Zelensky is replaced they get a new leader who will negotiate with the Russians instead of sending hundreds of thousands of undertrained and underequipped troops to be blown to pieces. As for Europe we have to live with the reality we have a resurgent super power on our borders and instead of trying to piss them off at every opportunity we should try to be diplomatic and respectful towards them - even if they have a different culture and do not want to be part of western liberal democracy or whatever our moral totalitarian system is meant to be called.
* - Part of this is to protect them from the Anti-Russian extremists I have mentioned in my previous posts, part is also because Russian Nationalists like Putin (who is a moderate compared to some people in Russia) are not entirely happy about what happened to their historical lands under the Soviet Union. Personally, I think you still spreading false image. Personally, I think russia would love to take whole Ukraine hens the reason to have their own puppets inside. You very familiar with word Puppet I'm guessing. Also, if there are any russians within Ukraine territory and they would love to be a part of NON-great russia then . . . well they know the direction. ah , how much you dislike Zelensky . This guy is really getting on your nerves. There is only one way to negotiate with russia . . . get the F . . . out. The issue putin is having is westernization of their own population. Once Ukraine became War free ( yes , its a WAR , not military operation as you probably still believe ) russian will flock there to have better life or at least they will try I do not really have any strong opinions on Zelensky - other than he is a bit corrupt and incompetent. If anything I feel a bit sorry for him because in my opinion he personally wanted to avoid this conflict with Russia and unlike Boris Johnson (and his masters in Washington) he and his fellow citizens are personally in the line of fire.
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