Greenwood2
Member of DD Central
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Post by Greenwood2 on Feb 15, 2022 11:13:34 GMT
Following from the discussion on diversity I thought it might be interesting to compare actual interest rates achieved. Today interest has been paid and rates have been updated so these are the maximum for the month.
My average current rate from Elfin Figures is 8.4% with a range of 20% to 6.5% excluding tranches less than 3 months old, most are between 7.5% and 10.5%, all of my current tranches are for 3 years.
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Post by df on Feb 15, 2022 12:01:29 GMT
Following from the discussion on diversity I thought it might be interesting to compare actual interest rates achieved. Today interest has been paid and rates have been updated so these are the maximum for the month. My average current rate from Elfin Figures is 8.4% with a range of 20% to 6.5% excluding tranches less than 3 months old, most are between 7.5% and 10.5%, all of my current tranches are for 3 years. Today is exactly 1 year since my first investment. I invest in 6 month tranches and reinvest at maturity so I loose some of interest because of cash drag created by short investments - my XIRR is 6.3%.
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Post by overthehill on Feb 15, 2022 14:46:44 GMT
Following from the discussion on diversity I thought it might be interesting to compare actual interest rates achieved. Today interest has been paid and rates have been updated so these are the maximum for the month. My average current rate from Elfin Figures is 8.4% with a range of 20% to 6.5% excluding tranches less than 3 months old, most are between 7.5% and 10.5%, all of my current tranches are for 3 years. Today is exactly 1 year since my first investment. I invest in 6 month tranches and reinvest at maturity so I loose some of interest because of cash drag created by short investments - my XIRR is 6.3%.
Does the XIRR figure include any capital losses i.e. is any of your capital currently in defaulted or late loans and not withdrawable ?
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Greenwood2
Member of DD Central
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Post by Greenwood2 on Feb 15, 2022 15:12:40 GMT
Today is exactly 1 year since my first investment. I invest in 6 month tranches and reinvest at maturity so I loose some of interest because of cash drag created by short investments - my XIRR is 6.3%.
Does the XIRR figure include any capital losses i.e. is any of your capital currently in defaulted or late loans and not withdrawable ?
Defaults are deducted from interest (like Zopa used to do) so the interest you see is after losses.
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Post by df on Feb 15, 2022 18:48:14 GMT
Today is exactly 1 year since my first investment. I invest in 6 month tranches and reinvest at maturity so I loose some of interest because of cash drag created by short investments - my XIRR is 6.3%.
Does the XIRR figure include any capital losses i.e. is any of your capital currently in defaulted or late loans and not withdrawable ? No. It's just the outcome based on what (and when) you've deposited and withdrew against your current balance. It is not a prediction of what you might earn or loose in future.
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Post by cmundo on Jun 20, 2022 7:20:29 GMT
I’m new to EF. Is the “next payment” value the actual interest amount that will be paid out on the 15th, or is it just indicative until the actual value is confirmed on the payment date?
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Post by Ace on Jun 20, 2022 7:54:02 GMT
I’m new to EF. Is the “next payment” value the actual interest amount that will be paid out on the 15th, or is it just indicative until the actual value is confirmed on the payment date? I've been with them for over 2 years and the actual amount paid has always been exactly equal to the "next payment" amount. I really don't understand the mechanism that allows this to happen. They can't know exactly which borrowers will fail to pay a month ahead.
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Greenwood2
Member of DD Central
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jun 20, 2022 9:02:13 GMT
I’m new to EF. Is the “next payment” value the actual interest amount that will be paid out on the 15th, or is it just indicative until the actual value is confirmed on the payment date? I've been with them for over 2 years and the actual amount paid has always been exactly equal to the "next payment" amount. I really don't understand the mechanism that allows this to happen. They can't know exactly which borrowers will fail to pay a month ahead. Mine has quite often not been the same, but usually only a few pounds different. This month was the most down on predicted I've seen, I assume a few extra defaults. I wonder if they take off the expected default rate before predicting the payment and then adjusting that figure for actual receipts on the payment day? I possibly have older loans that might be attracting more defaults, although according to Elfin loans are churned between lenders.
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Post by Ace on Jun 20, 2022 9:11:07 GMT
I've been with them for over 2 years and the actual amount paid has always been exactly equal to the "next payment" amount. I really don't understand the mechanism that allows this to happen. They can't know exactly which borrowers will fail to pay a month ahead. Mine has quite often not been the same, but usually only a few pounds different. This month was the most down on predicted I've seen, I assume a few extra defaults. I wonder if they take off the expected default rate before predicting the payment and then adjusting that figure for actual receipts on the payment day? I possibly have older loans that might be attracting more defaults, although according to Elfin loans are churned between lenders. According to Elfin all lenders are diversified over "almost" all loans. Since we're both longstanding lenders we should have very similar loanbooks. It seems odd that your payments differ from the predicted but mine don't 🤔. Perhaps it's a question of scale. My largest ever monthly interest payment is under £5. So perhaps mine differs by sub-pence, so is unnoticed. Elfin mechanics really are a bit of a mystery to me.
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Post by cmundo on Jun 20, 2022 10:05:06 GMT
Thanks for the insight!
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Greenwood2
Member of DD Central
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jun 20, 2022 10:14:18 GMT
Mine has quite often not been the same, but usually only a few pounds different. This month was the most down on predicted I've seen, I assume a few extra defaults. I wonder if they take off the expected default rate before predicting the payment and then adjusting that figure for actual receipts on the payment day? I possibly have older loans that might be attracting more defaults, although according to Elfin loans are churned between lenders. According to Elfin all lenders are diversified over "almost" all loans. Since we're both longstanding lenders we should have very similar loanbooks. It seems odd that your payments differ from the predicted but mine don't 🤔. Perhaps it's a question of scale. My largest ever monthly interest payment is under £5. So perhaps mine differs by sub-pence, so is unnoticed. Elfin mechanics really are a bit of a mystery to me. My monthly payments are quite a bit more and I'm in some three year loans, some of my early three year investments still have wildly different interest rates (7.5% - 22%), the newer ones are much closer together (7% - 8%) after a few months, figures as of last payment date so maximums. I wonder if old loans are not so integrated into the churning pool? As you say still a bit of a mystery even after the Elfin explanation.
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Jun 20, 2022 13:16:16 GMT
Mine has quite often not been the same, but usually only a few pounds different. This month was the most down on predicted I've seen, I assume a few extra defaults. I wonder if they take off the expected default rate before predicting the payment and then adjusting that figure for actual receipts on the payment day? I possibly have older loans that might be attracting more defaults, although according to Elfin loans are churned between lenders. According to Elfin all lenders are diversified over "almost" all loans. Since we're both longstanding lenders we should have very similar loanbooks. It seems odd that your payments differ from the predicted but mine don't 🤔. Perhaps it's a question of scale. My largest ever monthly interest payment is under £5. So perhaps mine differs by sub-pence, so is unnoticed. Elfin mechanics really are a bit of a mystery to me. Something doesn't follow here. The diversification can't be proportional or each investment would return approx the same rate, and mine differ wildly. Must be some form of random allocation of amount in each loan which would mean some would be more impacted if they have more in a default
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Post by Ace on Jun 20, 2022 13:32:51 GMT
According to Elfin all lenders are diversified over "almost" all loans. Since we're both longstanding lenders we should have very similar loanbooks. It seems odd that your payments differ from the predicted but mine don't 🤔. Perhaps it's a question of scale. My largest ever monthly interest payment is under £5. So perhaps mine differs by sub-pence, so is unnoticed. Elfin mechanics really are a bit of a mystery to me. Something doesn't follow here. The diversification can't be proportional or each investment would return approx the same rate, and mine differ wildly. Must be some form of random allocation of amount in each loan which would mean some would be more impacted if they have more in a default Yes, your right, things don't quite seem to add up. Hence my comment that is all really a bit of a mystery. It was discussed in a previous thread where I had a stab at a possible answer (see here), but I suspect there's lots more that I'm missing.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jan 16, 2023 7:26:38 GMT
My average rate as given by Elf up from 8.4% last January to 8.8% this year, on three year loans. Just paid this month so maximum rate compared to maximum last January. I think they said they were increasing rates to borrowers a while ago.
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trium
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Post by trium on Mar 7, 2023 13:35:29 GMT
My average rate as given by Elf up from 8.4% last January to 8.8% this year, on three year loans. Just paid this month so maximum rate compared to maximum last January. I think they said they were increasing rates to borrowers a while ago. On the Account Details page you can get current projected rates for different maturities, currently ranging from 8% for 6 months to 10% for 3 years. My actual earnings rates are lower than this - 4 x 1-year investments about to mature are all showing 6.7% now. They were at 7% when February's interest went in. My 3-year investments show AERs related to how long they've been running - higher for older investments. Currently ranging from 6.6% for Dec 2025 maturity to 8.1% for May 2025. Those rates will of course increase when we get interest for March included.
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