Ace
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Post by Ace on May 11, 2022 16:51:06 GMT
I decided to rundown my CP Standard account and thought it would be interesting to document how it went here. I'll update the table around the first of each month to show how it's going. The rundown is not due to dissatisfaction with CP, though it has lost some of its previous shine IMO. Reducing my standard account to £0 would still leave CP as my second largest platform. The main reason is to move non-ISA funds to ISA accounts, so some of it might well end up in my CP ISA. A secondary reason was to see how the XIRR rises as the account runs down. I'm a bit surprised that the current XIRR for this account, which was started in Sep 2020, is only 2.62%. I haven't suffered from high cash drag on this account, so I'm expecting the final XIRR to end up somewhere near 7.5%. My much larger ISA account, that was started in Jan 2019, is currently returning 4.77%. All figures exclude accrued interest. I'm fairly sure that the reason for the currently low XIRRs in both accounts is due to the unpaid accrued interest, but the only way to be sure is to run an account down and see where the XIRR ends up. | Date | XIRR | Outstanding capital | # Loans outstanding | # Late loans | £ in late loans | | 1/5/2022 | 2.62% | £9,932.53 | 58 | 7 | £2,596.99 | | 1/6/2022 | 2.48% | £9,721.17 | 54 | 8 | £2,916.79 | | 1/7/2022 | 2.79% | £9,166.17 | 51 | 8 | £2,690.33 | | 1/8/2022 | 2.78% | £8,925.26 | 49 | 10 | £2,923.54 | | 1/9/2022 | 2.73% | £8,821.22 | 48 | 11 | £3,043.18 | | 1/10/2022 | 2.71% | £8,702.59 | 48 | 15 | £3,873.75 | | 1/11/2022 | 2.90% | £8,095.42 | 46 | 17 | £3,608.99 | | 1/12/2022 | 4.11% | £6,548.22 | 43 | 19 | £2,483.55 | | 1/1/2023 | 4.20% | £6,296.35 | 40 | 21 | £3,763.54 | | 1/2/2023 | 4.46% | £5,966.16 | 37 | 22 | £4,455.86 | | 1/3/2023 | 4.62% | £4,984.28 | 32 | 18 | £3,715.65 | | 1/4/2023 | 4.64% | £4,795.09 | 31 | 18 | £3,796.33 | | 1/5/2023 | 4.64% | £4,411.92 | 26 | 16 | £3,577.61 | | 1/6/2023 | 4.61% | £4,249.37 | 24 | 16 | £3,624.51 | | 1/7/2023 | 4.60% | £4,136.27 | 23 | 17 | £3,674.66 | | 1/8/2023 | 4.53% | £4,119.57 | 23 | 18 | £3,707.96 | | 1/9/2023 | 4.56% | £3,967.24 | 20 | 16 | £3,559.59 |
Total profit to date = £956.74 |
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Post by overthehill on May 11, 2022 17:30:35 GMT
I decided to rundown my CP Standard account and thought it would be interesting to document how it went here. I'll update the table around the first of each month to show how it's going. The rundown is not due to dissatisfaction with CP, though it has lost some of its previous shine IMO. Reducing my standard account to £0 would still leave CP as my second largest platform. The main reason is to move non-ISA funds to ISA accounts, so some of it might well end up in my CP ISA. A secondary reason was to see how the XIRR rises as the account runs down. I'm a bit surprised that the current XIRR for this account, which was started in Sep 2020, is only 2.62%. I haven't suffered from high cash drag on this account, so I'm expecting the final XIRR to end up somewhere near 7.5%. My much larger ISA account, that was started in Jan 20129, is currently returning 4.77%. All figures exclude accrued interest. I'm fairly sure that the reason for the currently low XIRRs in both accounts is due to the unpaid accrued interest, but the only way to be sure is to run an account down and see where the XIRR ends up. | Date | XIRR | Outstanding capital | # Loans outstanding | # Late loans | £ in late loans | | 1/5/2022 | 2.62% | £9,932.53 | 58 | 7 | £2,596.99 |
My real time interest rate on active loans is exactly 8% still despite the falling rates. I think due to 4 loans earning 10% penalty interest, fewer loans paying back on time, buying fewer loans and only 7/33 loans < 7.5%
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Ace
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Post by Ace on May 11, 2022 17:50:51 GMT
My real time interest rate on active loans is exactly 8% still despite the falling rates. I think due to 4 loans earning 10% penalty interest, fewer loans paying back on time, buying fewer loans and only 7/33 loans < 7.5% I think my "real time interest rate on active loans" is higher than 8%. I haven't measured it exactly, but if the capital in my late loans is earning 10% then the non-late loans would only need to average 7.3% to give an 8% total average. Given that only 6 of my 58 loans are at less than 7.3%, it seems likely that the overall average is over 8%. I'm still expecting the final XIRR to end up around 7.5% when the initial cash drag on the loans is accounted for.
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littleoldlady
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Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on May 11, 2022 18:00:22 GMT
You both seem to be expecting no losses.
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Ace
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Post by Ace on May 11, 2022 18:08:25 GMT
You both seem to be expecting no losses. It's a fair point. I think my expected 7.5 could survive a minor loss. Given that they've had no losses in 7 years so far makes me feel that their stated anticipated losses of 1% is a bit high. I accept that it could be a lot worse, but it's difficult to factor in any expectation of that. Time will tell.
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on May 11, 2022 18:16:00 GMT
A loss is not a loss until they say it's a loss. Other platforms have and continue to kick cans down the road indefinitely. Are you in The Old Lloyds Bank?
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Ace
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Post by Ace on May 11, 2022 18:52:29 GMT
A loss is not a loss until they say it's a loss. Other platforms have and continue to kick cans down the road indefinitely. Are you in The Old Lloyds Bank? No I'm not, how's it going?
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dave4
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Cynical is a hobby not a lifestyle
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Post by dave4 on May 11, 2022 18:55:26 GMT
A loss is not a loss until they say it's a loss. Other platforms have and continue to kick cans down the road indefinitely. Are you in The Old Lloyds Bank? No I'm not, how's it going? Looking like a record breaker  (i ducked out).
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littleoldlady
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Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on May 11, 2022 19:15:14 GMT
A loss is not a loss until they say it's a loss. Other platforms have and continue to kick cans down the road indefinitely. Are you in The Old Lloyds Bank? No I'm not, how's it going? Looks like barber time.
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littleoldlady
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Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on May 12, 2022 7:12:18 GMT
A loss is not a loss until they say it's a loss. Other platforms have and continue to kick cans down the road indefinitely. Are you in The Old Lloyds Bank? No I'm not, how's it going? Do you recall what put you of the loan? Whatever it was I wish I had smelt it.
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Ace
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Post by Ace on May 12, 2022 7:43:01 GMT
No I'm not, how's it going? Do you recall what put you of the loan? Whatever it was I wish I had smelt it. No, sorry, too long ago for me to remember. The most likely reason would be that I was simply out of cash on the platform at the time, rather than any skill on my part. I did skip a few that I didn't like back in the day, but my judgement turned out to be wrong on all those that I followed. They all repaid without issues. I've come to accept that CP's information and judgement is superior to mine. That's not to say that there won't be losses, there will. Overall I think that the platform is solid enough that diversification across the loans is the best DD I can do on CP.
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Ace
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Post by Ace on Jun 1, 2022 15:49:32 GMT
The table in the OP has been updated.
The current XIRR has actually dropped this month.
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Ace
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Post by Ace on Jul 1, 2022 21:24:04 GMT
The table in the OP has been updated.
Numbers are now going in the right direction.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jul 2, 2022 11:34:02 GMT
TBH, I thought CP had huge potential before I took my only bite. I am happy to declare no loss with my only loan on CP. Everything was repaid with profit.
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Ace
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Post by Ace on Aug 1, 2022 22:09:37 GMT
The table in the OP has been updated.
Not much changed this month. A few minor loans repaid and more loans ran late.
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(i ducked out).