|
Post by df on Aug 29, 2022 19:35:32 GMT
My holdings 29/08/2022 MLA £1,948 13 Loans / 8 in default GEA £497 1 Loan / 1 in default GBBA1 £3,703 9 Loans / 8 in default GBBA2 £17,273 50 Loans / 16 in default £12,319 outstanding interest Not looking good
AC has never looked good, more Funding Circle esque. Depends on your strategy. I diversified across loan books on both, FC(manual) and MLA, can't provide the figures but the proportion of defaults was notably different. I wouldn't have stayed with AC if their loan origination was as reckless as FC.
|
|
|
Post by overthehill on Aug 31, 2022 15:53:09 GMT
The future is 5%.
|
|
dave4
Member of DD Central
Cynical is a hobby not a lifestyle
Posts: 1,004
Likes: 572
|
Post by dave4 on Aug 31, 2022 17:49:26 GMT
|
|
|
Post by df on Aug 31, 2022 19:02:46 GMT
When I get "upcoming loan" e-mails, if it's anything below 6% I delete it. Consequently my loan book is shrinking. If AC brought back 5.75% for 90-day account (without queues to get in and out ) I would probably consider a small punt, but that is not going to happen in foreseen future. I won't be surprised if the 5% trend will soon drive AC away from p2p.
|
|
rscal
Posts: 911
Likes: 500
|
Post by rscal on Sept 1, 2022 11:26:43 GMT
Several recent loans have actually offered '7%'. Plus all that existing loan-age in the MLA from July - with a lot above 5% (although access accounts are still exit only) Assetz have turned their back on us as funders, AFAICS
|
|
easynow
Member of DD Central
Popcorn anyone?
Posts: 178
Likes: 147
|
Post by easynow on Sept 1, 2022 15:24:25 GMT
Property secured account used to pay 5.5% with the threat of provision fund cover, the provision fund was covered by the excess interest retained from individual loans, usually at least 1%, BOE base rate at the time was hovering around 0.5% on average, compare that with 5% on most loans on offer currently with no PF cover and it puts things into perspective.
I had a quick tally up earlier this week before deciding to transfer some funds out.
Predicted pipeline for Sept looked as follows:
Total was a years domestic supply of gas and electricity short of 12 million (£11,987.000)
5% £8,564,000 5.5% £2,900,000 (one large loan, which would no doubt have been 5% otherwise) 6% or above £523,000
At the beginning of July they were delighted to tell us that access account queues were now reducing, no doubt trying to tempt more customers to have cash sat doing nothing, clearly they are managing to fool a few people still.
|
|
trevor
Member of DD Central
Posts: 556
Likes: 379
|
Post by trevor on Sept 2, 2022 8:54:59 GMT
It’ll be interesting to see what the new MD does with retail investors.
|
|
rscal
Posts: 911
Likes: 500
|
Post by rscal on Sept 5, 2022 7:30:57 GMT
They needed a new MD? Tell me more! Wow that'll improve the rate of loan handoff origination [maybe they had existing MD move into their 'recoveries' - or perhaps he was head-hunted altogether by the Receivership that works out of the same floor of the building?]
|
|
upland
Member of DD Central
Posts: 478
Likes: 175
|
Post by upland on Sept 6, 2022 6:56:58 GMT
True reviewing the live loans I see many of these unattractive returns while the risk free interest returns are climbing. Fixed 1 year terms are 3.3% and I expect 4% by the end of the year. Similarly I see with LI many of these unattractive offerings while rates are rising and I just cannot take them seriously. When I recall the number of p2p platforms that have failed and the number too that have used our money to advance themselves and now dont need us the writing is on the wall. Its just business.
|
|
|
Post by overthehill on Sept 11, 2022 9:48:16 GMT
1. 234 loans now have units available. Who is trying to sell out of these loans , many are over 250k.
2. One of my unrecoverable greek loans has an update saying it is being referred to the Provision Fund Board. I thought their bank account was empty !
3. I find it very disconcerting when the loan update date has been changed but there is no visible evidence anywhere of what has been changed !
|
|
dave4
Member of DD Central
Cynical is a hobby not a lifestyle
Posts: 1,004
Likes: 572
|
Post by dave4 on Sept 11, 2022 11:38:22 GMT
My answers on a postcard are.... (best guess) 1. assets 2. i believe it is. 3. ditto.
|
|
mikes1531
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,452
Likes: 2,320
|
Post by mikes1531 on Sept 11, 2022 15:08:06 GMT
1. 342 loans now have units available. Who is trying to sell out of these loans , many are over 250k. My answers on a postcard are.... (best guess) 1. assets Perhaps AC are coming to the same conclusion that we are here -- that as FSCS-covered rates approach the rates being paid on the IA their investors are going to start trying to move funds from the IA to the FSCS accounts. So they're trying to prepare for that by shrinking the Access account pool by selling those loan parts to MLA investors. If they can find enough gullible MLA investors they might be able to manage to keep the IA going as hoped. If they can't, they'd have to declare non-normal market conditions and close the withdrawals window again. And that could well cause the demise of the retail side of AC.
I do wonder whether AC's new institutional funders actually are willing to supply funds cheaply enough for AC to continue to offer 5% loans. (We don't have any idea what the rates are on the loans funded by non-retail sources, do we?) Perhaps those funders aren't supplying funds for 5% loans, and AC are depending on their retail investors to fund all the loans they've offered to borrowers at such low rates. With FSCS rates rising and the IA rate stuck at 3.75%, the retail funding source is going to dry up very soon.
|
|
|
Post by df on Sept 11, 2022 21:33:21 GMT
1. 342 loans now have units available. Who is trying to sell out of these loans , many are over 250k. My answers on a postcard are.... (best guess) 1. assets Perhaps AC are coming to the same conclusion that we are here -- that as FSCS-covered rates approach the rates being paid on the IA their investors are going to start trying to move funds from the IA to the FSCS accounts. So they're trying to prepare for that by shrinking the Access account pool by selling those loan parts to MLA investors. If they can find enough gullible MLA investors they might be able to manage to keep the IA going as hoped. If they can't, they'd have to declare non-normal market conditions and close the withdrawals window again. And that could well cause the demise of the retail side of AC.
I do wonder whether AC's new institutional funders actually are willing to supply funds cheaply enough for AC to continue to offer 5% loans. (We don't have any idea what the rates are on the loans funded by non-retail sources, do we?) Perhaps those funders aren't supplying funds for 5% loans, and AC are depending on their retail investors to fund all the loans they've offered to borrowers at such low rates. With FSCS rates rising and the IA rate stuck at 3.75%, the retail funding source is going to dry up very soon.
According to some projections BoE could raise interest rates to 3% by the end of this year. If that's true, we might see FSCS's IA offers matching AC's very soon. I recall at some point RS's IA offers were below FSCS's and some investors entertained this, but i think 'under 5% to lenders' era of p2p is over.
|
|
dave4
Member of DD Central
Cynical is a hobby not a lifestyle
Posts: 1,004
Likes: 572
|
Post by dave4 on Sept 12, 2022 16:05:08 GMT
Perhaps AC are coming to the same conclusion that we are here -- that as FSCS-covered rates approach the rates being paid on the IA their investors are going to start trying to move funds from the IA to the FSCS accounts. So they're trying to prepare for that by shrinking the Access account pool by selling those loan parts to MLA investors. If they can find enough gullible MLA investors they might be able to manage to keep the IA going as hoped. If they can't, they'd have to declare non-normal market conditions and close the withdrawals window again. And that could well cause the demise of the retail side of AC.
I do wonder whether AC's new institutional funders actually are willing to supply funds cheaply enough for AC to continue to offer 5% loans. (We don't have any idea what the rates are on the loans funded by non-retail sources, do we?) Perhaps those funders aren't supplying funds for 5% loans, and AC are depending on their retail investors to fund all the loans they've offered to borrowers at such low rates. With FSCS rates rising and the IA rate stuck at 3.75%, the retail funding source is going to dry up very soon.
According to some projections BoE could raise interest rates to 3% by the end of this year. If that's true, we might see FSCS's IA offers matching AC's very soon. I recall at some point RS's IA offers were below FSCS's and some investors entertained this, but i think 'under 5% to lenders' era of p2p is over. Kinda agree with whats above.... But got me thinking..... "If they can't, they'd have to declare non-normal market conditions and close the withdrawals window again. And that could well cause the demise of the retail side of AC.".This lock in is the most worrying bit for me, kinda get the first 1, wasn't happy, but kinda get it, was a big world wide unforeseen thing, now moving on to the present day, a recession is not a unforeseen or unprecedented event, we have had them before, several times in my lifetime, so can ac just lock us in because there business model is not working for a while?? what is the criteria that has to be met??? or is it just up to AC to make the decision when they feel like it??..
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 10,850
Likes: 11,078
|
Post by ilmoro on Sept 12, 2022 19:54:09 GMT
AA are currently 99% invested, well beyond the level when withdrawals were shut off previously. The key issue will be the level of demand for withdrawals and funds available to facilitate them. About £1.25m free cash and still funds queueing to get in (about 6 weeks wait) so it will be a supply & demand equation and how that is expected to change in the current climate. One difference of course is that many loans amortising down whereas they were often increasing during covid with forbearance advances. I suspect AC also have the option to change the algorithm that randomly allocates loans between retail & institutional to fund more loans with institutions
|
|