ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Jan 4, 2023 21:24:10 GMT
I completely take your point that we don't really know what percentage of the outstanding loans are in the can kicking territory, and that the non-repaid loans could contain a large rump of potential losses. So, I've tried to get some measure of it from the platforms' statistics. I'm going with the amount of capital that's more that 180 days late (FCA definition of a default) as my definition of the loans that are in a 'can kicking' state (I expect this to be an over estimate, as some of those will be late for valid reasons). Unfortunately, this info isn't readily available. So, I've had to read between the lines a bit in order to estimate these percentages. Anyway these are the estimates I've come up with for those platforms previously mentioned: Proplend: 2.8% of outstanding loans are in default. CrowdProperty: 9% of outstanding loans are in default. Kuflink: 1.1% of outstanding loans are in default. Loanpad: I couldn't come up with an easy way to estimate, but this platform has to be the least likely to suffer losses of 10% of capital across the board, given that the average LTVs are only 40%. Even for the worst case out of those at 9% of loans being in 'can kicking' mode, all of the capital in those loans and more would need to be lost to get to the assumed 10% loss figure. Since they are all first charges, that's 14+ loans that all need to result in a complete capital loss. I can accept that some of those loans might result in some degree of loss, but it seems to me that it's extremely unlikely that they would all result in a total loss. This view is further supported by the fact that there have been zero capital or even any interest losses among the 13 loans that have previously been in that 'can kicking' state and have since resolved. Personally, I see CP's estimate of 1% losses to be much closer to the mark, especially if we add the other platforms into the mix. It's extremely unfortunate that the FCA have failed to get to get to grips with the P2P sector and whilst 180 days may be their definition of a default there's no requirement for the platform to apply it. Can-kicking has become an Olympic sport in P2P land although as the FCA have led the way in this I'd award them the gold medal!!
Yes there is, the definition is part of FCA regulations and covered by COBS. If it hits the definition the the platform has to advise lenders the loan is in default
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Jan 6, 2023 21:36:29 GMT
Latest 3 month report. Overall portfolio continues to perform well though obviously a massive question over how AC will turn out. Probably look to add some new platforms to redeploy capital |
| | | | Platform | Q3 2022-3 | 2021-22 XIRR | 21m XIRR | Comments | Ablrate
| 1.97% | 5.39%
| 4.07% | Winddown, majority of loans non-paying | Assetz Capital standard | 6.13% | 6.61% | 6.4% | Winding down, MLA only return 6.34%. | Assetz Capital ISA | 4.55% | 4.20% | 4.34% | MLA only return 8.02% due to accrued interest payments. Winding down, will be some cash drag until AC get their head in the game on ISA flexibility. | Assetz Exchange | 0.57% | 15.09% | 5.58% | Holding at current level and rediversifying as new loans launch and taking capital gains. Big drop in market in line with economy has impacted headline return. Stripped out return, incl realised capital gains, is 6.49% | Brickowner | 2.25% | 2.09% | 2.15% | Exiting. Profits mostly due at term and somewhat delayed in some cases. One total loss has pushed overall return down. | Crowdstacker | 0.58% | NA | 0.58% | New this year, interest at term, cash drag, pulled loans mean no real comparable figures | Easymoney | 3.27% | 2.21% | 2.96% | Minimum investment to get perks but rates becoming more competitive. Factor in savings from perks and return is 12.96% | Elfin Market | 6.78% | 6.49% | 6.65% | Steady performer. Slight increase due to moving to 1 year loans. | Fund Ourselves | 18.17% | 12.27% | 14.71% | Best performer on paper but not sure if Ill ever see it. Appalling website & service making it uninvestable. Accrued interest distorts returns. Return boosted by payment of several months accrued PF interest | Landlordinvest ISA | 11.71% | 6.68% | 8.44% | Resolution of default inflating return. Exit on hold due to better SM availability allowing diversification. Solid platform | Leap Lending | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.23% | Baffling ... totally impossible to invest, down to £5 | Lendwise | 7.77% | -8.12% | 7.54% | Ticking along, few late payers has dropped return, drip feeding further funds in as seems to be a solid performer overall (New in 21/22 & purchase of accrued interest makes negative return) | Loanpad standard | 5.64% | 5.19% | 5.38% | The comfy slippers. Return has dropped as referral rate boosts unwind | Loanpad ISA | 4.98% | NA | 4.98% | New, boosted rate from referrals | Moneything | 0.47% | 1.75% | 1.22% | Still scraping a return, just 1 performing loan left. Exiting with a profit despite admin. | Octopus Choice | NA | 11.54% | 12.7% | Done & dusted. | Onstep | 2.72% | 3.24% | 3.02% | Another eventually to be ex-platform. | Property Partner | .3% | -1.46% | -0.73% | Just letting it run its course, has managed to scrape into positive returns but doubt that will be for long as PP likely to chop dividends. Strip out capital gains/losses return is .96%. | Unbolted | 8.75% | 9.25% | 8.99% | Mr Steady, just ticks along doing its thing. Slight drop in return with rate cut. | Uown | 0.38% | 8.01% | 4.76% | Lack of opportunities and significant cash drag plus interest at term mean figures distorted. |
I have residual loans on Funding Secure (effectively out with a profit), Lendy (likely to be a modest loss), Collateral (who knows but it will be painful), and Funding Circle (long exited but pennies from residual defaults)
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littleoldlady
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Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on Jan 7, 2023 9:39:47 GMT
Latest 3 month report. Octopus Choice | NA | 11.54% | 12.7% | Done & dusted. |
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) However did you achieve that XIRR?
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Jan 7, 2023 9:44:31 GMT
Latest 3 month report. Octopus Choice | NA | 11.54% | 12.7% | Done & dusted. |
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) However did you achieve that XIRR? Its only for the previous year & a bit so is distorted by all the catch up interest payments. Never worked out XIRR before that but it will be in the 4-5% range.
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Post by Ace on Apr 2, 2023 19:25:26 GMT
It's time for the end of quarter update on how my portfolio is going. Well, it's been the worst quarterly performance since my P2P journey started back in Feb 2018. During this quarter my overall portfolio XIRR has decreased from 7.42% to 7.05%. This is a low point in my overall portfolio XIRR since the first quarter of 2021. The 3 main drivers for this, in order of greatest effect, are: - Crystallised losses from my ABLrate pub loans.
- An unusually low number of larger bullet loans repaying this quarter across the portfolio (I can't identify any particular cause here, so I expect this to correct itself going forward).
- Previously reliable income from ABLrate has almost completely dried up.
It's not a shock as it was predicted in my last update, but two of the 3 biggest reasons for the drop are related to the ongoing fallout from the ABLrate wind-down, or, perhaps more accurately, from my previous overexposure to that high risk platform. There is potentially plenty more bad news to come for me from this same source. While still significant, its ability to influence my returns going forward has reduced this quarter for the following reasons: - The percentage of my P2P portfolio capital tied up in ABLrate has reduced from 13% to 11.4% (still my 2nd largest platform).
- My outstanding capital on ABLrate has reduced from being 65% of my all-time P2P profits to 59%. (It was roughly 100% at the time the wind-down started).
- My best estimate of underlying total portfolio returns (including accrued interest and assuming zero interest from ABLrate) is currently 9.75%.
- My best estimate of underlying total portfolio returns, assuming no exposure to ABLrate is 11.1%.
There has been no change to the mix of platforms that make up my portfolio during the quarter.
The constitution of my portfolio in order of funds deployed is currently: Rank | Last year | Platform | % of pot | XIRR | Comment | 1 | 4 | AxiaFunder
| 12.52 | 4.54% | Still adding. I particularly like the portfolio loans here. | 2 | 1 | ABLrate | 11.43 | 8.27%
| In wind-down. | 3 | 2 | CrowdProperty | 10.22 | 5.15% | Adding to my much larger ISA account, but withdrawing from Standard. | 4 | 3 | Shojin | 9.97 | 6.74% | New in Oct 21. I would add more if it wasn't for the £5k minimum. | 5 | 8 | Qardus | 7.37 | 18.30% | Adding. Still my highest XIRR of all active platforms. | 6 | 7 | HNW Lending
| 6.65 | 7.26% | Maintaining. I would add more if it wasn't for the £5k/£10k minimum. | 7 | 6 | Proplend
| 5.07 | 9.95% | Trying to add to ISA, but difficult to deploy funds quicker than repayments. | 8 | 5 | Loanpad | 5.06 | 5.86% | Have reduced to fund higher rate loans elsewhere. Now maintaining. | 9 | 17 | CapitalStackers | 4.95 | 0.00% | Adding. I'm intending to add new tax year's ISA funds here. | 10 | 10 | Unbolted | 3.99 | 9.12% | Slowly adding when possible. | 11 | 13 | CapitalRise | 3.57 | 6.63% | Maintaining. | 12 | 9 | BrickOwner | 3.43 | 0.21% | Will reduce if any loans eventually repay until record of delays improves. | 13 | 19 | Crowdstacker | 2.52 | 4.06% | Slowly adding. | 14 | 15 | Blend
| 2.46 | 2.95% | Running down. | 15 | 11 | LandlordInvest | 2.15 | 11.51% | Would add, but too few loans to deploy funds. | 16 | 16 | Kuflink
| 1.72 | 13.24% | Withdrawing from Standard account, but maintaining ISA account.
| 17 | New | CPCapital | 1.17 | 0.00% | Will probably have to move funds back to CP as no new loans for ages. | 18 | 20 | SoMo | 1.11 | 11.32% | Would add more if £5k minimum was lower. | 19 | 18 | PropertyPartner
| 1.11 | 13.56% | Reducing.
| 20 | 14 | AssetzCapital
| 1.04 | 8.93% | In wind-down. | 21 | 12 | AssetzExchange | 0.70 | 10.11% | Removing income. | 22 | 23 | Uown | 0.53 | 7.66% | Only 1 loan left. Would possibly add if there were more.
| 23 | 21 | Moneything | 0.48 | 6.31% | Reducing. In administration. | 24 | 22 | OnStep | 0.44 | 3.08% | Single loan, now in wind-down. | 25 | 25 | ElfinMarket | 0.34 | 8.47% | Adding slowly. | 26 | 24 | Grupeer | 0.20 | 2.98% | I need to get around to writing the remaining capital off. | 27 | 27 | Lendy | 0.01 | 2.53% | In administration. | 28 | 26 | LendingWorks | 0.01 | 4.64% | In wind-down. | 29 | 28 | FundingCircle | 0.01 | 3.17% | Closed. Exiting. |
All other platforms have been fully exited, i.e. Mintos, RateSetter, Zopa, GrowthStreeet, Robocash, Welendus, BritishPearl and ConnectiveLending. The fastest riser has been CapitalStackers. I've been very impressed with their DD and their ongoing monitoring. I had decided to maintain to see a few loans through, but later decided to increase when they reduced their minimum loan size from £5k to £2.5k and introduced an ISA. As a consequence, I'm planning to use my 2023/24 ISA allowance there. I maintain a list of all of my bullet loans where I have an exposure of £500 or more. They account for 56% of my total portfolio. (Last year's figures are given in brackets for comparison). There are currently 138 (111) entries, with 34 (23) of them overdue, 21.31% (14.32%) by value. Although these statistics on lateness have all worsened this is mainly due to the increase in the number and size of these loans. It will be interesting to see how the stats change over the coming year, when I expect the number of these loans to remain flatter. The number of overdue loans by platform are (with value as the secondary sort criteria): Platform | Number overdue | Rank by longest overdue | Most Months Late | CrowdProperty
| 10 | 6 | 23 | ABLrate
| 5 | 4 | 26 | BrickOwner | 4 | 1 | 45 | AssetzCapital | 4 | 2 | 38 | Kuflink | 4 | 8 | 10 | LandlordInvest | 2 | 10 | 2 | Moneything | 1 | 3 | 35 | CrowdStacker | 1 | 5 | 23 | Proplend | 1 | 7 | 12 | CPCapital | 1 | 9 | 3 | HNW Lending | 1 | 11 | 1 |
Of the above, BO is by far the worst culprit. Of the 8 loans I have there 4 are already considerably overdue, the other 4 are already forecast to be late. Next, CP and K stand out as having the highest proportion of loans that run late. However, I'm fairly relaxed about these as both have a good record of getting late loans repaid. Especially so on CP as the extra 2% during overruns does increase the XIRR. Of course, overdue loans are an expected hazzard in the world of property development, so not necessarily anything to worry about in itself. Of the above loans, only those on AC, ABL, BO, MT, CS and 1 of the loans on CP are in the "likely loss" category. In any case, some losses should be expected. Investors are being paid a premium for a risk. If there was no risk then there would be no premium. Judging which platforms can keep the losses to an acceptably small proportion of the expected profits is a major part of P2P platform DD. Although I'm disappointed at the lowering of my all-time P2P XIRR to 7.05%, as it's significantly below my expectation of an eventual rise to around 11%, it's still a decent return. Unfortunately, the future direction of travel is still overly dependent on my ABLrate runoff. I look forward to hearing how others are doing.
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Post by Ace on Apr 3, 2023 15:12:40 GMT
I've received some private duplicate questions regarding yesterday's update. So, to save time, and incase others have similar questions, here is the gist of the questions and the answers. Q1. Why do I only include non-amortising loans in my "late loans" list, and why only those where I have invested over £500? A1. The list of loans originally started because I wanted to have some idea of how much capital was scheduled to be repaid over certain time periods. Since I largely rely on P2P income and repayments to fund my living expenses (yes I have a substantial backup fund to tied me over any lean periods), I also wanted to manage the loans so that I could expect a certain value of repayments per month. So, it was useful to see where I had repayment gaps so that I could favour new loans that would plug the gaps. The list is ordered by scheduled repayment date. The outstanding capital is updated when any partial repayments are made. Loans are removed from the list as they repay (or become crystalised losses). As an accidental consequence, any loans in the list above today's date are my late loans. Managing a list of all loans in my portfolio would require much more time than I'm prepared to devote to the task. It would need over 1,000 entries. Adding amortising loans would also require too much management, as they would all need to be updated monthly as capital repayments are made. They would also give a false impression of the amounts that are scheduled to repay unless I split them into a number of monthly entries over the life of each loan; again, too much work for me. So, my compromise was to just list non-amortising loans over £500. Q2. Having called out CP and K as having a comparatively high level of late loans, does this mean that I consider these to be particularly high risk or poor investments? A2. No, absolutely not. They both have extremely good records of getting full repayments from their late loans. If you're trying to estimate when repayments from these platforms might occur you would need to take the fact that many run late into account. In my view they both offer excellent risk adjusted returns. I do expect some losses from both eventually, but these should have a very small effect on a well diversified portfolio. Q3. How many loans that were late in last year's report are still included in the lates this year? A3. Fourteen. So, 9 of last year's 23 late loans have since completed. Most repaid in full, but there were some minor write-offs from some AC loans. See the table below for a breakdown of the 14 loans that are now over 1 year late, with my best guess as to how many will result in capital losses. 2nd column is the number of loans more than 1 year late. 3rd column is the number of those loans where I expect some capital loss. 4th column is the percentage of outstanding capital I have in that platform that is in loans greater than 1 year late. Platform | # > 12 months late | # where losses expected | % of platform capital | AssetzCapital | 4 | 4 | 95% | ABLrate | 3 | 1+? | 8% | BrickOwner | 2 | 1 | 32% | CrowdProperty | 2 | 0 | 6% | MoneyThing | 1 | 1 | 37% | CrowdStacker | 1 | 1 | 4% | Proplend | 1 | 0 | 9% |
As a follow-up to Q2 above: Note that there a no K entries in the above table, and that there are only 2 from CP (where I've already had 98 projects repay with no loss of capital or interest despite roughly half of them running late). No-one asked this, but I think it's worth noting: When loans are given official extensions I DO NOT update the expected end date unless I was given the option to exit the loan. This works well for measuring how many loans are "late", but less well for the original purpose of knowing my expected repayment schedule. Feel free to ask further questions below if anything is not clear.
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Apr 5, 2023 23:33:40 GMT
Performance report for the financial year plus my full P2P history. Overall portfolio has continued to perform. Added some new platforms to replace those that are winding down. Expect to have big losses this year as defunct platforms get resolved. Platform |
| XIRR 2022-23 | Lifetime XIRR |
| Ablrate |
| -13.64% | 6.09% | Winddown, majority of loans non-paying and losses being crystallised. Borderline whether I will exit with a profit. | Abundance |
| NA | 1.46% | Cheeky use of a cash ISA facility | Assetz Capital
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| 5.79% | 10.22% | Winddown, entirely MLA, impact of fee not fully felt yet. Some high rate early loans, SM trading & minimal losses so far boosting long term return | Assetz Capital ISA |
| 4.32% | 4.8% | Winddown, majority AA hence lower return. MLA returning 7.87% last year | Assetz Exchange |
| -0.65% | 5.77% | Solid, holding level, reinvesting returns. Prices dropped heavily on the SM generating negative return. 6% return adjusted for depreciation. | Brickowner |
| -14.3% | 1.64% | Winddown, min invest too high now and poor performance ... first losses declared | Collateral |
| NA | 0.54% | Defunct - will be biggest loss once all resolved | Connective |
| NA | 13.42% | Shame they didnt continue | Crowdstacker |
| 0.48% | 0.48% | New this year, most returns at term. Holding investment level | Easymoney |
| 3.6% | 3.27% | Maintaining investment level. Factor in perks & return 11% | Elfin Market |
| 6.04% | 6.25% | Maintaining investment level, moving from short term to longer terms | Fruitful |
| NA | 5.55% | Shut - decent platform | Fund Ourselves |
| 17.69% | 15.45% | Still producing returns on paper, website getting worse, will probably look to exit | Funding Circle |
| NA | 4.40% | Exited when pivoted to auto portfolios, still some residual default loans | Funding Knight |
| NA | 6.66% | Shut | Funding Secure |
| NA | 9.42% | Defunct - managed to exit before the hit the fan | Huddle |
| NA | 28.72% | Exited - massive incentive inflating returns | Invest & Fund |
| 0% | 0% | New this year - interest paid at term | Kuflink |
| 6.06% | 6.06% | New this year - toe dip, monthly interest, increasing | Landlordinvest ISA |
| 11.07% | 8.52% | Like this platform but min now too high so probably exiting | Leap Lending |
| 0.92% | 1.28% | Odd, never managed to invest more than £50 and they are now buying loans back | Lendwise |
| 7.32% | 7.19% | So far so good, few loans gone into arrears but so far all been sorted. Increasing | Lendy |
| NA | 7.27% | Defunct - likely to be a loss once loans get written off | Loanpad |
| 5.57% | 5.21% | Still comfy | Loanpad ISA |
| 5.15% | 5.15% | New this year | Moneything |
| 0.44% | 6.68% | Defunct - still one paying loan, will exit with a profit | Octopus Choice |
| 153.43% | 4.32% | Shut - catch up interest distorting return for year | Onstep |
| 2.87% | 3.05% | Winddown - just keeps ticking | Orchard Leading |
| NA | Infinite | Sign up bonus | Peer Funding |
| NA | 0% | Shut - Never invested | Peer Credit |
| NA | 0% | Shut - Never invested | Property Moose |
| NA | -0.91% | Just waiting for it to run its course | Property Partner |
| 1.74/11.96% | 0.03/1.54% | Prices recovering hence the positive paper return, left to run | Ratesetter |
| NA | 4.5% | Shut - exited fairly early due to falling rates | Unbolted |
| 8.54% | 8.89% | Steady, taken some returns off the platform but otherwise just letting it run | Uown |
| 0.53% | 6.78% | Interest at term on most projects distorting returns, been good, would increase but for lack of projects | Wellesley |
| NA | 5.26% | Defunct - got out when changed strategy | Zopa |
| NA | 6.21% | Shut - exited fairly early as rates too low |
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littleoldlady
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Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on Apr 7, 2023 8:01:47 GMT
Despite investing in about 40 platforms you somehow managed to avoid my big loss maker - Property Crowd. Well done ilmoro. Do you remember if you considered it and if so why you rejected it?
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Apr 7, 2023 12:03:01 GMT
Despite investing in about 40 platforms you somehow managed to avoid my big loss maker - Property Crowd. Well done ilmoro. Do you remember if you considered it and if so why you rejected it? Oh, yes ... probably one of the early sign ups, did fair amount of DD, remember Charles? but the zero coupon bond structure & minimum were out of my comfort zone.
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littleoldlady
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Running down all platforms due to age
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Post by littleoldlady on Apr 8, 2023 7:52:42 GMT
Despite investing in about 40 platforms you somehow managed to avoid my big loss maker - Property Crowd. Well done ilmoro . Do you remember if you considered it and if so why you rejected it? Oh, yes ... probably one of the early sign ups, did fair amount of DD, remember Charles? but the zero coupon bond structure & minimum were out of my comfort zone. Yes, they quickly reduced the minimum to £1k which sucked me in further.
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Post by Ace on Jul 1, 2023 16:56:36 GMT
It's time for the quarterly update on mp P2P portfolio. Over the quarter the total realised P2P portfolio XIRR has dropped from 7.05% to 6.85%. As per last quarter, this is mainly a result of further fallout from the ABLrate wind-down Also, I finally got round to writing off all remaining capital from Grupeer (a hopeless case I think). There's bound to be more bad news from ABLrate to come, though a full repayment of capital and interest from the honest borrower for the cake loan was a welcome bright spot for me this quarter. The ability for ABLrate to continue to blight my results is still significant, but has reduced a bit for the following reasons over the quarter: - The percentage of my P2P portfolio capital tied up in ABLrate has reduced from 11.4% to 10.8% (now my 3rd largest platform, down from 2nd last quarter).
- My outstanding capital on ABLrate as a percentage of my all-time P2P profits has reduced from 59% to 55.5% (it was roughly 100% at the time the wind-down started).
- My best estimate of underlying total net portfolio returns (including accrued interest and assuming zero interest from ABLrate) is 9.99% (9.75% last quarter).
- My best estimate of underlying total net portfolio returns, assuming zero exposure to ABLrate would be 11.32% (11.1% last quarter).
There has been no change to the platforms that constitute my portfolio this quarter, except for writing off my Grupeer balance. It's a year since I listed my top performing platforms here. So, here's the latest list with last year's position shown to see how things have changed. As before, I've only included my current platforms and have included cashbacks, cash drag and bonuses in the XIRRs. Note that I have dropped the minimum XIRR requirements from 10% to 8% to include more platforms. Posn. | Last Year's Posn. | Platform | XIRR | Comment | 1 | 1 | Qardus | 18.02% | They've kept the top spot by a large margin for a second year running, and have been in the top 2 since they started. The XIRR has dropped a bit due to my exposure to one delinquent borrower. A total loss of all remaining capital in that loan would push my XIRR down to 14.87% (so they would still be number 1). Another loan was in default until the guarantor restarted payments, but no payment was made in June. Writing off my remaining exposure in this loan as well would reduce my XIRR to 11.87%. I think that it's too early to be declaring these as write-offs, but even if they were, it's still a great return. | 2 | 3 | Kuflink
| 13.81% | A surprise rise in the table for Kuflink, but is due to others dropping more rather than Kuflink increasing. The returns here are unsustainable as they're dominated by very generous referral bonuses that are no longer available. I'd expect an eventual drop to the 7% range for K. A solid performer, but likely to fall off this list eventually.
| 3 | 2 | Property Partner | 12.78% | A somewhat freak position due to the forecast of a large capital profit in the largest of my 2 remaining loans (the shiney fortified property on a hill). Pure luck on my part. | 4 | 6 | LandlordInvest | 11.51% | A well earned rise from a solid performer. I'm happy to take on higher risk loans here and have also benefitted from some penalty interest. | 5 | 5 | SoMo
| 11.01 | I've been lucky with higher rate older loans here, and from some extra penalty interest. I withdrew from this platform while rates dropped too low, but I'm back now that they have risen again. A very solid performer. The £5k minimum and lack of an ISA are barriers to me investing more.
| 6 | 4 | Assetz Exchange | 9.98% | I withdrew two thirds of my capital to lock in profit. I've started to cautiously reinvest income. It's difficult to ignore the Assetz link given the callous treatment of investors at AC. A quandary for me despite the protestations of independence. | 7 | 7 | Proplend | 9.85% | I'm still adding to this platform because I like it a lot. I'm mostly in Tranches B & C, but not easy to get funds deployed. A very solid performer. The regular monthly income is very handy for me.
| 8 | - | Unbolted | 8.97% | Another solid performer. It's been much easier to get funds deployed recently, and the recent rate rises are very welcome. | 9 | - | Assetz Capital | 8.85% | In wind-down. Will slip out of this list as losses crystalise, but I'm guaranteed to end up with a profit. It's disgraced itself in my view by splitting the institutional lending off to a seperate company so that they can force the run-down costs of the retail lending on to investors, rather than accepting that the company should pay for it's failure to maintain a viable retail product. | 10 | - | ElfinMarket | 8.79% | I've been reluctant to put much capital here as I've not done well with other unsecured consumer lending, but EM are proving the exception, so I'm gradually increasing my exposure. They've been rock solid for me so far. |
The platforms that have slid out of the list over the past year: ABLrate (enough said about them) The following platforms would have made the above list, but they are no longer current as I've exited them: Mintos Euros 14.90%, Connective Lending 13.35%, Robocash 12.44% and Mintos Sterling 11.76%. I'm expecting the following platforms to make it into the list when more loans mature: AxiaFunder, Shojin, CapitalStackers and CPCapital. CrowdStacker should also get there, but it will take a while for them to make up for my losses on the pubs loan. It's also possible that CrowdProperty, BlendNetwork, CapitalRise and HNW Lending could make it now that I've lowered the bar.
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Jul 9, 2023 13:03:34 GMT
Latest 3 month report. Generally continuing to perform well but with the big elephant in the room being Assetz Capital plus a few other annoyances. Pretty static investment level overall. |
| | | | Platform | Q1 2023-4 | 2022-23 XIRR | Lifetime | Comments | Ablrate
| 0.54% | -13.64% | 5.99% | Winddown, majority of loans non-paying and inevitably return falling over time as a consequence. Impossible to predict if ultimate outcome will be positive. | Assetz Capital standard | 3.16% | 5.79% | 9.95% | Winding down, impact of fees means return will dip significantly. All MLA. | Assetz Capital ISA | 1.91% | 4.32% | 4.67% | MLA only return 3.59%. Impact of fees means return will dip significantly plus cash drag from flexibility removal. | Assetz Exchange | 9% | -0.65% | 6.15% | Static, will probably start to reduce in favour of ISA. Recovery of market has boosted paper returns. Stripped out return, incl realised capital gains, is 7.35% | Assetz Excahnge ISA | 14.6% | NA | 14.6% | Increasing as funds released from AC (easy transfer & flexibility available) Significant paper profit from market gains, stripped out return 1.97% (cash drag as havent actually used flexibiility) | Brickowner |
| -14.3% |
| Exiting. | Crowdstacker | 1.33% | 0.48% | 0.65% | Static, one loan paying monthly has boosted return but most at term so performance distorted | Crowdwithus | 6.53% | NA | 6.53% | New this year, slow deal flow and ,most returns at term so true picture yet to materialise | Easymoney | 4.54% | 3.6% | 3.47% | Minimum investment to get perks but rates becoming more competitive. Factor in savings from perks and return is 47.19% due to increase in spending | Elfin Market | 7.98% | 6.04% | 6.47% | Steady performer. Move to 1 year loans has boosted returns | Fund Ourselves | 5.04% | 17.69% | 14.93% | Returns reduced by cash drag, partially voluntarily as didnt recertifiy as an experiment but now seems to be a general issue. Website still a nightmare, latest bug doesnt display live loans | Invest & Fund | 1.24% | 0% | 0.69% | Frustrating, struggling to deploy funds so significant cash drag ... loans starting to repay so returns filtering through at term | Kuflink | 5.29% | 6.06% | 5.49% | Bit of cash drag, one delayed repayment reducing returns but should increase as now fully deployed and rate increases | Landlordinvest ISA | 8.6% | 11.07% | 8.52% | Decided to stay in, some cash drag and overdue loans drawing returns down | Leap Lending | ? | 0.92% | 8.37% | No idea, supposedly all loans bought out and funds have been returned yet I still have funds showing invested and earning interest. As baffling as ever | Lendwise | 8.35% | 7.32% | 7.49% | Ticking along, one actual default ... few issues with auto-invest not always functioning as expected | Loanpad standard | 5.39% | 5.57% | 5.22% | Loss of referral rate boost offset by rate increases | Loanpad ISA | 5.52% | 5.15% | 5.25% | Loss of referral rate boost offset by rate increases
| Moneything | 0.31% | 0.44% | 6.59% | Still scraping a return, just 1 performing loan left. Exiting with a profit despite admin though inevitably declining | Onstep | 3.38% | 2.87% | 3.09% | Return boosted by paper capital gains | Property Partner | -13.21/-7.11 | 1.74/11.96% | 1.55/3.09% | What a mess! Falling dividends and recent declining market reducing returns short-term though actually still ahead on paper. New funds added into bonds. | Unbolted | 7.27% | 8.54% | 8.74% | Mr Steady, just ticks along doing its thing. Return reduced slightly due to some withdrawal of profits and considerable defaulted loans awaiting resolution | Uown | 3.6% | 0.53% | 6.7% | Distorted by term interest ... at least one redemption due shortly which will bump returns significantly |
I have residual loans on Funding Secure (effectively out with a profit), Lendy (likely to be a modest loss), Collateral (who knows but it will be painful), and Funding Circle (long exited but pennies from residual defaults)
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Post by Ace on Oct 5, 2023 0:34:58 GMT
Here's my quarterly update. As at this time last year I'll concentrate on updating my desired platform allocation. Last year's update is here. Most importantly, here's the headline figure for my overall portfolio: the all-time P2P XIRR has fallen slightly since the last quarter from 6.85% to 6.81. The reasons for the decline (and failure to increase) are as follows, in order of importance: - The income from what is now my 3rd largest platform (ABLrate) has continued to fall. My XIRR there has fallen from a high point of around 13% to 7.5% currently. My exposure to ABLrate has reduced from a high of about 19% of my portfolio to the current 10.7%, but capital repayments have almost ceased now. I'm expecting my final PeaOne loan to repay at the end of the next quarter. I'm increasingly pessimistic about any further repayments. The total net profit from my ABLrate loans currently represents 32.2% of my outstanding capital there. I'm largely dependant on AF's PG for further returns!
- I've finally lost patience with BrickOwner. Another year on and still none of my loans have repaid. One of my loans is now forecast to be a near total loss after being over 4 years late. This will wipe out a large chunk of my forecast profits from the other loans there. Given the track record, I no longer have confidence in those forecasts. So, I've removed BO from my desired platform list and set my expected XIRR to zero. I'm hoping that this is overly pessimistic, but it currently looks realistic.
- I'm still waiting for any significant returns from Shojin and CapitalStackers. I like the thorough DD on both platforms, and I am still expecting good returns from both, but I have a growing proportion of delayed loans on both. This is common across all of my development loan platforms, but these 2 are having a greater drag on my returns at present due to their larger minimums and lack of repayments. I expect to be able to report good returns from both in next year's update.
- The XIRR on my largest platform (AxiaFunder) is currently much lower than my forecast return, so is currently causing a drag on the overall XIRR. This is mostly just the nature of the type of loans. They tend to take longer to conclude, so cash is tied up for a considerable time. I've been increasing my exposure to the portfolio loans, which tend to be much shorter and repay in tranches. This has started to have a positive effect on the XIRR as regular payments are now rolling in. I expect to be able to report a good increase next year.
- Finally, I've suffered a sizeable write-off on one of my Proplend loans. I think that they've been far too quick to declare the write-off as I expect a significant recovery to be made. Even if it doesn't, it hasn't made much of a dent in my PL XIRR due to good returns from my other loans there.
Now for an update to my ideal mix of P2P platforms, and the estimate of what overall return that might produce. Two platforms have been removed (BrickOwner as described above, and BlendNetwork due to required cash drag to get/stay invested). I've added SoMo back in as their rates are competitive again, and I rate them highly. I continue to tilt towards ISAs where possible.
The "Target %" column gives the desired percentage of my P2P portfolio that I would now like to have invested in that platform. The "Change" column shows the increase or decrease in desired percentage from last year. The "Current XIRR" column states the all-time XIRR that I've achieved across all my accounts on that platform to date (i.e. combined Standard and ISA accounts). The "Target XIRR" column indicates my best estimate of what return I could achieve on that platform (some of these are very difficult to estimate, and may change over time). Platforms are listed in the order of my current exposure to each platform from high to low. Platform | Target % | Change | Current XIRR | Target XIRR | Notes |
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AxiaFunder | 15 | +3 | 4.4% | 20% | Increased due to perceived risk/reward of the portfolio cases.
| CrowdProperty | 11 | 0 | 5.1% | 8% | Solid performer. Running down Standard in favour of ISA. | Shojin
| 11 | -1 | 6.0% | 14% | Slight decrease as others increase while I wait for expected completions. | Qardus
| 10 | 0 | 17.8% | 15% | Continues to be a star performer, but difficult to keep deployed due to amortisation. | HNW Lending | 8 | +1 | 9.1% | 8% | Slight increase due to solid record. | Loanpad | 6 | -1 | 5.9% | 5.8% | Slight decrease to deploy funds in higher paying loans. A very solid base. | CapitalStackers
| 8 | +1 | 0% | 11% | Increase to accommodate this year's ISA allowance. | Proplend
| 6 | -1 | 8.0% | 8% | Slight decrease due to difficulty in deploying funds. | Unbolted | 5 | 0 | 8.9% | 9% | Another solid performer. | CapitalRise
| 4 | +2 | 6.1% | 7.8% | Slight increase due to rising rates at a solid performer. | Brickowner | 0 | -3 | 0.2% | 0% | Removed due to endless extensions and expected loss. | CrowdStacker | 4 | +2 | 4.3% | 8.5% | Increased as development loans have started to return good profits. | Landlordinvest | 4 | 0 | 11.7% | 9% | Another solid performer.
| BlendNetwork
| 0 | -4 | 3.2% | 8% | Removed as too difficult to get deployed without cash drag. | Kuflink | 3 | 0 | 13.3% | 7.5% | Another solid performer.
| SoMo
| 2 | +2 | 10.9% | 9% | Brought back as its a solid performer and rates are now competitive again. | Elfin Market | 1 | 0 | 8.9% | 8% | Another solid performer.
| CPCapital | 2 | -1 | 13.0% | 11% | Reduced as no new loans for a long time. |
The capital weighted average using my Current XIRRs is 7.52% (up from 6.75% last year due to rising rates). The capital weighted average using my Target XIRRs would be 11.4% (up from 11% last year due to rising rates). I'd be very happy if I got anywhere near this. ABLrate could scupper this ambition for a very long time if it goes badly. A main driver to the Target % is the likely ability to achieve the desired exposure at my required level of diversification. There are certainly platforms that I would have favoured more if I thought that I would be able to deploy more funds there. I've tried to allow for defaults where I think some are likely. There are no platforms that I'm currently considering adding. I would possibly add Blend back if they eliminated the need for cash drag, but I don't expect them to. One of the problems with my chosen platforms is still an over-reliance on property based Lending (slightly less than last year due to increasing AF), so a large property crash could put me in difficulties. I might increase EM if they continue to perform well. I will probably continue increasing my exposure to AF's portfolio loans for more diversification away from property loans. The currently desired percentages in the various sectors are: Property 69% Business (SMEs) 10% Litigation funding 15% Pawn 5% Consumer Lending 1%
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Post by overthehill on Oct 5, 2023 8:28:46 GMT
Not expecting a property crash anytime soon.
Does no loans from CPcapital tell a story about the late/default loans at CP ?
My portfolio is below. I want to add Elfin Market but apart from p1ssing me off during my last attempt they don't make it easy (No ISA transfer IN, !)
IN Axiafunder CapitalRise CrowdProperty Kuflink LandlordInvest Proplend SOMO Unbolted
IN NOW OUT
HNW Lending Loanpad Qardus Blend Network
THINKING ABOUT IT Capitalstackers Elfin Market
Lendwise
GOOD RIDDANCE
ablrate assetzcapital lending works fundingsecure funding circle archover property partner
SAD TO GO growth street connective lending ratesetter zopa landbay
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Post by Ace on Oct 5, 2023 8:52:13 GMT
Does no loans from CPcapital tell a story about the late/default loans at CP ?
I don't think so. If anything that would increase the need for mezzanine finance to complete loans in difficulty. I suspect that it has more to do with a decision not to offer mezzanine finance at a time when UK House prices are generally falling.
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