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Post by chris on Feb 8, 2015 13:43:27 GMT
It's worth reiterating that when a loan first draws down loan units are distributed amongst all those who have targets set (across all types of investment account) as fairly as possible. There's also been a recent change to the way underwriter holdings are managed at drawdown with enforced sale of a minimum percentage of their holdings (usually 50%), which will help enforce liquidity and immediate availability of loan units rather than the more manual sales that happened in the past.
There have also been £7.3m of sales on the aftermarket in the last month. Lender activity on the aftermarket has actually been really healthy and accelerating despite the lack of deal flow.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2015 13:52:00 GMT
My comments were related to the aftermarket, as I haven't been a lender long enough to purchase parts in new loans.
Do you have any plans to make the aftermarket more fluid, i.e. let people sell their parts with a different interest rate for instance?
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Feb 8, 2015 14:12:42 GMT
My comments were related to the aftermarket, as I haven't been a lender long enough to purchase parts in new loans. If you go to Loan Book -> Browse Loans, and then select Upcoming Loans you will see loans that are not yet available, but are expected to be soon. There is often information on when the loan is expected to draw but past experience suggests that this can be many months wrong. You can set a target before it draws and then when it does you will be in the initial allocation (if you have funds in your account). People report being able to buy several thousand pound pieces of these loans, even the small ones. The larger ones will probably be available on the aftermarket (though not always). When a new loan appears here someone will usually post in this forum.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2015 14:25:44 GMT
Thanks.
I am aware of the new loans coming on, but as you said, not sure of the timescales.
If I assume that: * a proper diversification would be to spread my money over at least 100 loans * AC currently has 77 live loans (but only half where I could get my target met) * and say 4 coming live each month (and I get the allocation requested each time)
then it will take at least a year to achieve my diversification target (assuming none of the original loans complete before then!).
As per AC's own wording: "expected losses across a diversified portfolio of loans to be circa 0.5%". If the definition of a diversified portfolio is at least across 100 loans (I don't know AC's definition), then my risk would be significantly higher than 0.5% for many months. If AC's definition of diversification is to invest across 35 loans, then it's achievable quickly!
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Feb 8, 2015 14:37:38 GMT
Thanks. As per AC's own wording: "expected losses across a diversified portfolio of loans to be circa 0.5%". If the definition of a diversified portfolio is at least across 100 loans (I don't know AC's definition), then my risk would be significantly higher than 0.5% for many months. It depends. If you intend to invest £100 in each of 100 loans, but at the moment have £100 in 20 loans and £8k in a FSCS deposit account then your risk is currently lower. If you currently have £500 in each of 20 loans then clearly your risk is currently higher. All the indications are that there will be many more than 4 new loans per month. If not a lot of people will be disappointed. AC's predictions have normally been quite good, though the timescale sometimes slips by a month or so. (£100m prediction at last year's event being the notable exception.)
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2015 14:56:15 GMT
I was, of course, talking about the investment and its risk.
Loading £8K of cash onto AC's protected cash account, earning 0% interest, is not my idea of a definition of an investment.
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Post by andrewholgate on Feb 8, 2015 14:58:04 GMT
There is a large number of loans coming. The changes to the auction process, the annual slowing of the market in the bigger ticket loan market and a couple of small projects have compounded the matter. However, the flow is coming back.
Patience is a virtue (although I also know a Patience who is a Capricorn).
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Post by chris on Feb 8, 2015 14:58:55 GMT
My comments were related to the aftermarket, as I haven't been a lender long enough to purchase parts in new loans. Do you have any plans to make the aftermarket more fluid, i.e. let people sell their parts with a different interest rate for instance? For retail investors there is no primary / secondary market. There's just a market, analogous to other platforms secondary market. As others have pointed out you can browse up coming loans, setting a target in them for automatic investment once they draw down. Mark down is a popular option amongst more sophisticated lenders and will be making a return sooner or later. I'm awaiting a specification to be agreed by the rest of the directors as there's a lot of periphery considerations - how does it affect underwriters who have to sell a proportion of their holdings, how would users specify a mark down within their automatic accounts, should they even be allowed to, if not how does the MLIA then affect the other account's liquidity, should automated accounts buy discounted loan units, which users from which accounts should get priority for buying them, etc. Take the example of a loan where two lenders have loan units for sale, one with a discount and one without. If there are two lenders willing to buy but one will only buy if there's a discount offered, then for the platform and the sellers the best thing to do would be to match both sales every time. But that's not necessarily fair for the buyers where a random factor should sometimes allow both sales, sometimes only sell the discounted loan units to the lender not requiring a discount and leaving the other seller and buyer without any sale. That's fair for one buyer and fine with one seller but not optimal for the other buyer and seller. So it'll make a return but only when its ready and when we feel we have suitable answers to those points. Mark up is far more polarising. There is increasingly vocal demand for this from some of our lenders but the wider lender base is indifferent at best, hostile at worst.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2015 15:08:53 GMT
From your answer, I guess you are facing challenges when your platform is automatically matching sellers and buyers.
What about starting with a simple manual solution, where "normal" sellers can just advertise amounts they want to sell, at what rate, and buyers just buy those (or a partial amount) manually? It would at least deal with people trying to get out of loans at short notice (and therefore buyers also waiting for opportunities to diversify).
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2015 15:15:51 GMT
Secondary market is working well on AC, you just plug in your target and wait for the loan to roll in, yes it takes time, but only like tickling trout.
If you want to get a faster diversification then you need to roll into a bunch of P2P platforms, from my reading there at least 8 to 10 good ones out there where the software works well and the deals come through reasonably fast. When you look at the diversification over say 4 p2p as I have it has taken me 4 months to achieve 1.2% spread, it just takes a little more time and thinking.
AC offers a very special form of lending and is trying to offer more alternatives which should be praised, however it has been the hardest one to understand of the platforms I use.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2015 15:30:07 GMT
If you want to get a faster diversification then you need to roll into a bunch of P2P platforms I think there is still a need to diversify within a platform, for a number of reasons. Diversifying across platforms is also of course advisable.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2015 15:44:02 GMT
Yes, and for that AC is presently too small, that is why they are trying to grow and patience is required (or as they say, "if you know a better hole"). If you want access to secondary market just raise a target on a no-available loan, it comes....
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2015 15:48:26 GMT
Or go to FC and become a flipper with rubbish being offered and accepted at 3% premiums. Yes you get diversification but at a cost that does not impress.
Right now, AC has to
1) manage a lack of loans (pipeline..tick tock, still holding my breath on this one) 2) manage three new money supplies or loan demand systems
getting a premium secondary market must be waaaaaay down the list
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sqh
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Before P2P, savers put a guinea in a piggy bank, now they smash the banks to become guinea pigs.
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Post by sqh on Feb 8, 2015 16:26:27 GMT
What about starting with a simple manual solution, where "normal" sellers can just advertise amounts they want to sell, at what rate, and buyers just buy those (or a partial amount) manually? Well actually, it was like that prior to the October Revolution (2014) - major software upgrade. Parts were sold manually, and there was an Autoinvest option as well. Now the manual process is automatic, and the Autoinvest process is the same thing. However, AC call this a manual process (that's the 'M' in MLIA). Perhaps it should be called the Automatic LIA, but that could be confusing, because we're told that an automatic invest tool will arrive in future. The automatic invest tool (not be confused with the old Autoinvest tool), will dynamically assign you loan parts based on your investment criteria. So, for instance, if you only want loans with a LTV less than 65% with a maximum exposure of 10% the system will oblige. I believe these criteria will be manually set up by the lender, but automatic defaults (settings not disasters) will likely be available. These will come under the heading BIA (Bespoke Investment Accounts). It's a bit like the GEIA, which automatically assigns you only Green Energy Loans.
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Post by chris on Feb 8, 2015 18:00:26 GMT
What about starting with a simple manual solution, where "normal" sellers can just advertise amounts they want to sell, at what rate, and buyers just buy those (or a partial amount) manually? Well actually, it was like that prior to the October Revolution (2014) - major software upgrade. Parts were sold manually, and there was an Autoinvest option as well. Now the manual process is automatic, and the Autoinvest process is the same thing. However, AC call this a manual process (that's the 'M' in MLIA). Perhaps it should be called the Automatic LIA, but that could be confusing, because we're told that an automatic invest tool will arrive in future. The automatic invest tool (not be confused with the old Autoinvest tool), will dynamically assign you loan parts based on your investment criteria. So, for instance, if you only want loans with a LTV less than 65% with a maximum exposure of 10% the system will oblige. I believe these criteria will be manually set up by the lender, but automatic defaults (settings not disasters) will likely be available. These will come under the heading BIA (Bespoke Investment Accounts). It's a bit like the GEIA, which automatically assigns you only Green Energy Loans. It's worth reminding everyone of our thinking. Every single major P2P platform that has scale either already has institutional investors or is making plans to do so. There is a flood of money trying to get into P2P coming from both sides of the Atlantic and all platforms face a challenge in balancing that against their private investors. The premise behind our approach is two fold: 1) many potential lenders are either time poor or have other reasons to look for a simple option; 2) automated investment systems will be built, particularly by those with the deepest pockets such as institutional investors, and completely manual investors would be crowded out of the market by these systems. Thus the creation of investment products, of which the GEIA is the first to launch but there will be others, which allow people to invest without having to manage a portfolio of loans. Alongside this we are going to release the system we use to build products to all lenders so that they can use their own. We have also made a commitment to ensure that the APIs we are currently creating for use by institutional investors will all be released to the public, allowing any lender to access the same systems. We're trying to create a level playing field for all no matter the resources available. We're never going to get the balance 100% right but we're committed to continually refining things to make sure all our lenders have appropriate liquidity, opportunity and return on their investment no matter how big or small their portfolio.
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