As of Sept 2021, the US debt ceiling was at $28.4 Trillion.

$31tn now - and debt actually hit the ceiling in January.

The government's response? Consider getting rid of the ceiling.
www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/08/debt-ceiling-us-biden-default

It's an odd thing, the ceiling. Few other countries have one. We don't.
It's no more than an artificial line in the sand which congress says the government can't borrow more than (but congress can increase the limit). Basically, it's a political weapon at times of congress being run by a different party to the president...

~135% of GDP - it's high compared to most "wealthy" countries - UK is 85%. But Japan's literally twice the US - ~270%

worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-country

"....Japan's literally twice the US - ~270%"

Technically, and to all intents and purposes, Bankrupt then?

Well, that's more to do with the debt itself, rather than the ceiling?

Think of it as the ceiling being like your overdraft or credit card limit - but the actual debt is, well, what you actually owe.

It's all very well having a £20k card limit and owing £2k, if you can afford to repay the £2k - but only having a £1500 limit and needing to put £2k on the card is a PITA.
If you can control your spending like the kind of person who should have a credit card, then the limit is academic if adequate.

Oh, and...

www.snopes.com/fact-check/gop-debt-ceiling-trump-presidency

It is.  There are five (maybe 6) things that scare the out of me at the moment:-

1.  The War in Ukraine.
2.  A potential (likely?) war between China and the US over Taiwan.
3.  The global debt crisis.
4.  Climate change.
5.  The prospect of a US default (largely because of their dysfunctional politics).
6. (maybe AI).

wrt to 3., whether it's acknowledged or not, it exists now. Most developed nation governments (the US, the UK, most of the EU, Japan etc) are in hock up to their eyeballs. If you exclude resource based economies much the same can be said of the developing world / emerging markets too (Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, Russia, much of Africa etc). China is a slightly special case, but things are so opaque there it's hard to tell just how much of a local government, SOE and property developer debt hole there is.

The figures for 2021 are here.  Those for 2023 are going to be worse.

This was the case before COVID, before Brexit, and before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, all of which have exacerbated the problem (ofc Brexit being a singularly UK focused issue). Demographics combined with political cravenness are going to exacerbate the problem pretty much everywhere. It was also the case prior to many countries signing up to green their economies, which, whilst necessary, is going to be extremely expensive. Then add a hefty bill for increased defense spending globally.

Addressing it is going to take a combination of:-

a) decreased government spending / more efficient provision of government services (so we'll need to pay the NHS, police, armed forces, teachers, civil servants etc less - good luck with that!).
b) increased taxation.
c) growth (how? especially in Britain thanks to Brexit? NIMBYs want growth somewhere else...), a particularly acute problem because of demographics and resistance to immigration.
d) inflate the debt away (making everybody poorer).
e) Putin and Xi not being dickheads (good luck with that!).

On an individual level I can't think of anything to do that's better than owning inflation resistant assets, namely property and equities.  But property is over-valued and highly likely to see government tax raids, and equities are a) toppy anyway, b) subject to increased corporate taxation and c) bare more tail risk than at any other point in my lifetime.


I'm not feeling particularly optimistic.  It's going to be a very tough few decades.

I remember reading that her political views were very much influenced by her early career as a research chemist....I would guess her second career as a tax barrister was also quite formative 

7.  (Liberal?) democracy being in retreat / being under sustained pressure in far too many countries.

Yip I agree with the first 5.AI threat? Think terminator, if so we are doomed.
More chance of humans making the usual arse of things resulting in armageddon.

I had a bottle of wine to myself last night. Cant say I slept well or feel to good today😬