Performance report for 2023 (and quarterly updates in 2024)
Jul 1, 2024 20:32:27 GMT
starfished, morris, and 7 more like this
Post by Ace on Jul 1, 2024 20:32:27 GMT
It's time for the quarterly update on mp P2P portfolio.
Over the quarter the total realised P2P portfolio XIRR has dropped a bit from 6.75% to 6.65%. The drop is partly due to an ever lengthening list of overdue loans across all of my property development platforms, but mainly due to the drag on returns from the ABLRate wind-down and poor performance from Brickowner. There is also some negative effect from some secondary market purchases I made at CapitalStackers recently, where I had to pay the accrued interest to the seller, but these should reverse soon as the loans repay (one has already made partial repayments). ABLRate is still the biggest elephant in the room for me. The ability for it to continue to blight my results is still significant, but continues to reduced a bit. Here's some stats compared to last year:
There has been no change to the platforms that constitute my portfolio this quarter.
It's a year since I listed my top performing platforms here. So, here's the latest list with last year's position shown to see how things have changed. It shows that the top performing platforms for me have remained remarkably stable. As before, I've only included my current platforms and have included cashbacks, cash drag and bonuses in the XIRRs. As for last year, I have only included platforms whose XIRR is at least 8%.
The platforms that have slid out of the list over the past year: London House Exchange (AKA Property Partner), due to returns dropping to 7.49%.
The following platforms would have made the above list, but they are no longer current as I've exited them: Mintos Euros 14.90%, Connective Lending 13.35%, Robocash 12.44% and Mintos Sterling 11.76%.
I'm expecting the following platforms to make it into the list when more loans mature: AxiaFunder, Shojin and CapitalStackers. CapitalRise will likely make it if their rates hold up. CrowdStacker could also get there, but it will take a while for them to make up for my losses on the pubs loan and one other. It's also possible that CrowdProperty, BlendNetwork, and HNW Lending could make it depending on how well they manage their overdue/delinquent loans.
Over the quarter the total realised P2P portfolio XIRR has dropped a bit from 6.75% to 6.65%. The drop is partly due to an ever lengthening list of overdue loans across all of my property development platforms, but mainly due to the drag on returns from the ABLRate wind-down and poor performance from Brickowner. There is also some negative effect from some secondary market purchases I made at CapitalStackers recently, where I had to pay the accrued interest to the seller, but these should reverse soon as the loans repay (one has already made partial repayments). ABLRate is still the biggest elephant in the room for me. The ability for it to continue to blight my results is still significant, but continues to reduced a bit. Here's some stats compared to last year:
- The percentage of my P2P portfolio capital tied up in ABLrate has reduced from 10.8% to 8.5% (now my 5th largest platform, down from 3rd last year).
- My outstanding capital on ABLrate as a percentage of my all-time P2P profits has reduced from 55.5% to 42% (it was roughly 100% at the time the wind-down started).
- My best estimate of underlying total net portfolio returns, assuming zero exposure to ABLrate and Brickowner would be 11.21% (11.32% last year).
There has been no change to the platforms that constitute my portfolio this quarter.
It's a year since I listed my top performing platforms here. So, here's the latest list with last year's position shown to see how things have changed. It shows that the top performing platforms for me have remained remarkably stable. As before, I've only included my current platforms and have included cashbacks, cash drag and bonuses in the XIRRs. As for last year, I have only included platforms whose XIRR is at least 8%.
Posn. | Last Year's Posn. | Platform | XIRR | Comment |
1 | 1 | Qardus | 17.77% | They've kept the top spot by a large margin for a third year running, and have been in the top 2 since they started. The XIRR has dropped a bit due to my exposure to one delinquent borrower and a large reduction in rates for new loans. A total loss of all remaining capital in the delinquent loan would push my XIRR down to 15.84% (so they would still be number 1). I've greatly reduced the amount I invest per loan since the rates dropped, so lower rates haven't had a large impact on my XIRR, but it has greatly reduced my exposure to this platform. down from 6.9% of my portfolio last year to 3.8% today. |
2 | 2 | Kuflink | 12.52% | The returns here are unsustainable as they're dominated by very generous referral bonuses that are no longer available. My XIRR without the bonuses would be 8.18%. I had expected Kuflink to drop below the 8% threshold for this table, but rate rises over the past year mean that it's now likely to remain. A solid long term performer. |
3 | - | CrowdProperty Capital | 11.62% | A new entrant due to loans finally starting to repay. In fact my last extant loan with them has now repaid. Even though this last loan has been repaid without any interest so far, it's still given a good return. I'm grateful to the platform for them deciding to repay the capital in preference to their fees, otherwise I would have been looking at a small overall platform loss. There is still some hope that some interest could be recovered. |
4 | 4 | LandlordInvest | 11.60% | Another solid performing platform that's been in the top 6 for 3 years running. I'm trying to increase my small exposure here. |
5 | 5 | SoMo | 10.66% | Another solid performing platform that's been in the top 5 for 3 years running. I've recently added significant funds to this platform as it's been very consistent at providing monthly income. It's a great shame that it can't be ISA wrapped. |
6 | 6 | Assetz Exchange | 10.12% | I've started to cautiously increase my small exposure here as I can't ignore the fact that it's been a top 6 performer for 3 years running. |
7 | 10 | ElfinMarket | 9.28% | I'm fighting my reluctance to trust in unsecured consumer lending and am steadily increasing my exposure to this platform that's proven itself to be a reliable performer for 4 years now. |
8 | 8 | Unbolted | 8.93% | Another long term solid performer. I managed to increase my exposure over the past year, but unallocated cash is a bit high now following some large repayments. I'll try and hold my nerve a while longer before removing cash, as that has proved to be beneficial in the past. |
9 | 9 | Assetz Capital | 8.67% | In wind-down. It's a false position as it is bound to slip out of this list as losses crystalise, but I'm guaranteed to end up with a profit. It's disgraced itself in my view by splitting the institutional lending off to a seperate company so that they can force the run-down costs of the retail lending on to investors, rather than accepting that the company should pay for it's failure to maintain a viable retail product. |
10 | 7 | Proplend | 8.15% | I'm still adding to this platform because I like it a lot. I'm mostly in Tranches B & C, but not easy to get funds deployed. It's been a solid performer, but has dropped down the table due to declared losses on one loan, which might still be recovered. The regular monthly income is very handy for me. |
The platforms that have slid out of the list over the past year: London House Exchange (AKA Property Partner), due to returns dropping to 7.49%.
The following platforms would have made the above list, but they are no longer current as I've exited them: Mintos Euros 14.90%, Connective Lending 13.35%, Robocash 12.44% and Mintos Sterling 11.76%.
I'm expecting the following platforms to make it into the list when more loans mature: AxiaFunder, Shojin and CapitalStackers. CapitalRise will likely make it if their rates hold up. CrowdStacker could also get there, but it will take a while for them to make up for my losses on the pubs loan and one other. It's also possible that CrowdProperty, BlendNetwork, and HNW Lending could make it depending on how well they manage their overdue/delinquent loans.