Electricity generation

I agree at one level that the import of fuel from an unstable middle east is the immediate security issue, however if we ,godforbid got in a fisty cuffs with our Russian friends those cables are very vulnerable and lpg transported by sea from the US is also. 
That spare cheap electric from the EU may not be available for long as transport and heating goes electric in Europe at an increasing rate gobling up capacity.
I know people do not like it but solar ,on shore wind and that magic large scale economic storage I think is the long term answer if the tecnical storage issue is solved. Nuclear energy will play a part but it's not really renewable and it is expensive.

The problem with UK energy security is the policies of this government and even worse the next Labour government. These policies are political and tax grab with no regard to energy security.


The UK does not have enough energy and is planning price changes to encourage people to cut back during peak periods, at present there are price reductions from time to time if you use less energy during certain periods.

Most if not all energy intensive industry have the left the UK, exceptions like steal recycling are only viable due to government funds.

Just because you import energy from stable countries does not make it secure, when there are issues and they do not have enough for themselves they will turn it off.

I have investments in some power generators, battery storage O&G (some UK only) and Uranium.


The issues with wind and solar are they are intermittent so require a backup, batteries are very expensive and only have limited capacity so you require backup generating capacity. There are 2 issues with this, the increased cost to build and maintain extra generating capacity which is only used some of the time and the costs of running it, large generators which need to be running all the time are a lot cheaper than the quick start generations.


UKs government policies


1. EPL is forcing a lot of NS O&G companies to leave the UK, Harbour (the biggest) has stated no more UK investments are now investing abroad. Harbour are stating the Labour changes to the EPL will result in 100%+ tax rate as not everything can be is offset against tax, anyway they are off. Kistos Andrew Austin (CEO) is very angry with UK tax will not be putting any new O&G deployments in the UK. SQZ are looking more towards investment outside the UK partly due to a lot of pressure from shareholders. Shell and BP have been downsizing in the UK for years and have only about 5% in the UK, Shell are likely to move the listing to NY because of ESG pressures bringing down share price in the UK and BP will no doubt follow, both are likely keep downsizings investments in the UK. Note EPL was brought in when the Oil price was very high and still there after it fell substantially.


2. Tax on generation and the amount you get paid for green energy in the UK have stopped all new developments, TRIG are selling off UK generation and have stated all new development will be outside of UK.GSF (battery storage company) have also stated no new UK developments, all new developments will be outside of UK, this is due to price paid in the UK and delays outside of their control to get new battery storage connected to the grid. Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc (GRID) has suspended all dividends due to these issues.

3. Lack of infrastructure for new green generation and storage as mentioned above, government will not pay for this and there is no one else willing to stump up the cash (as not commercially viable).


4. Lack of gas storage, the Rough (largest UK gas storage) is only running at a small part of its capacity due to UK government lack of funds and no one else willing to stump up the cash (as not commercially viable).


I am sure there are many more companies following the same route but these are the ones I follow.


In global terms

Biden has blocked new Gas export terminals forcing down the price of gas in the USA which in turn has caused many gas extraction companies to cut back and some have gone bankrupt.


There is a worldwide shortage of Uranium (U3O8), and Uranium enrichment facilities. This is made worse for the West due to loss of supplies from Niger and China stockpiling U3O8, a lot sent from Kazakhstan and Russia which used to go to the West. It can take up to 10 years for a new Uranium mine to come on stream and also long time to create new Uranium enrichment facilities.

Yeah, sometimes. The issue is all the other times when fossil fuels are providing considerably more. eg last week when they were the largest source. That isnt likely to change due to the nature of electricity provision and demand eg inertia, grid balancing, base load etc. If other sources cant provide that 100% of the time then fossil fuels are still required or its blackouts, and those fossil fuel plants still have to be paid for when they arent being paid for electricity.

If you read the second half of the report, it says


These technical requirements include maintaining the frequency of electricity supplies at close to 50Hz and responding to rapid changes in supply and demand through operational reserves.



NGESO also maintains the ability to restart the grid in the case of a total shutdown, sometimes referred to as “black start”, but now more formally called “restoration”.



Increases in wind and solar capacity mean low-carbon sources are now already sufficient to meet 100% of electricity demand in some periods. However, on the technical side, the 2025 target has been a “significant engineering challenge”, Dyke says:



“Getting to the 2025 ambition has been a significant engineering challenge, which we are solving.”



Grid services have, historically, been provided by fossil fuel power plants. Over the past five years, however, NGESO has been changing the way it procures these services, as well as reforming the rules of grid operation and the way it balances the grid in real time.



For example, through its “pathfinder” projects NGESO has contracted a series of sites that can offer grid services without fossil fuels. These include “synchronous condensers”, effectively giant spinning turbines that provide grid stability without burning fossil fuels.



Other key innovations include the use of batteries to manage the frequency of the grid and “grid forming inverters”, which use sophisticated power electronics to offer different types of grid support.



This development means renewable projects will be able to contribute grid stability services, such as “inertia”, that have traditionally only been offered by conventional fossil fuel generators.

Evidence? No me neither but I suggest the more war mongering leaders we have in the west with similar views to yourself, the more likely it is we will indeed have the world war you seem to crave.

Hope nobody thinks I am a war mongerer, the word in my post is God forbid.I think the present conflict in Ukraine is an appalling failure of politics, an accomodation that would have solved Russia's historical fears of an  invasion of it's western border and the lack of sensitivity of expansion east of NATO after promising not to 
after the fall of the USSR was foolish. Putin is a megalomaniac dictator wishing to return to the glory days of the USSR but the west enabled him to carry the Russian people forward with him.
The right in the West ignoring Russia as defeated spent force while encourageing european states into become western political clones in the good old USA way have no political savvy at all. Ukraine's actions in trying to suppress the cultural heritage of it's Russian expat population did not help much ether and sure was not in any way freedom loving.
Energy security is not only a matter of physical access but the ability to buffer ones state from the economic effects of world events effecting price. A diverse energy mix under ones own control in as far as that is achievable should be our aim , renewable would be nice to. Present storage solutions to stabilize the grid are short time solutions to last a few minutes while we wind up peaker plants on standtby. We need the sort of storage that could run the country for 2 or 3 days in a row and I see nothing to do that at present.