keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Aug 20, 2024 12:36:21 GMT
million to 1 shots always come up 11,234 to 1 shots never What's the relevance of that figure, where does it come from? This case is reminiscent of that murder in the Alps mystery from 2012, where the estranged husband of the wife murdered just happened to die of a heart attack in America on the very same day. I did some rough, back of an envelope, calculations yesterday. Given the age of the two men in this latest case, they each had a life expectancy of ~10,000 - 12,000 days ahead of them, broadly speaking. An actuary would be more accurate here, but (in the simplest, uniform distribution - which is far from the case) the odds of both dying on the same day would be somewhere around 1 in 11,000. But the probability of both dying so early in life must surely be much lower. Perhaps somewhere closer to 1 in 50,000 or 1 in 100,000, as a very 'wet finger in the air'? So I'm intrigued as to who's mentioned 11,234 and how it was derived. lol 11,234 was a random number I came up with, effectively to say who has ever heard of an 11.234:1 chance happening.
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Post by bernythedolt on Aug 20, 2024 12:44:34 GMT
So Mike Lynch's co-defendant in this multi-$billion US fraud trial died yesterday after being struck by a car on Saturday. Not terribly suspicious. He was out jogging, and was hit by a car. The driver was a middle-aged local woman who stayed on the scene and is helping police with their enquiries. Coincidences aren't conspiracies. Also - given that the others missing on the yacht include a senior partner in one of the biggest global law firms and the president of a very major global bank... that'd be some serious collateral damage. I agree. As I said, it's surprising just how often these outrageous coincidences crop up. The Alps murder victim and her estranged husband dying on the same day was another.
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Post by bernythedolt on Aug 20, 2024 12:47:33 GMT
What's the relevance of that figure, where does it come from? This case is reminiscent of that murder in the Alps mystery from 2012, where the estranged husband of the wife murdered just happened to die of a heart attack in America on the very same day. I did some rough, back of an envelope, calculations yesterday. Given the age of the two men in this latest case, they each had a life expectancy of ~10,000 - 12,000 days ahead of them, broadly speaking. An actuary would be more accurate here, but (in the simplest, uniform distribution - which is far from the case) the odds of both dying on the same day would be somewhere around 1 in 11,000. But the probability of both dying so early in life must surely be much lower. Perhaps somewhere closer to 1 in 50,000 or 1 in 100,000, as a very 'wet finger in the air'? So I'm intrigued as to who's mentioned 11,234 and how it was derived. lol 11,234 was a random number I came up with, effectively to say who has ever heard of an 11.234:1 chance happening. Interesting how close your random guess came to my own back of envelope figure!
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 20, 2024 13:32:20 GMT
Back to the spec of the luxury yacht, was it designed to be unsinkable, self-righting? Enough life jackets?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Aug 20, 2024 14:12:04 GMT
Back to the spec of the luxury yacht, was it designed to be unsinkable, self-righting? Enough life jackets? They were talking to a yacht expert on R4 earlier. Nothing is unsinkable. Only very specialist stuff is self-righting - lifeboats, etc. 22 life jackets? Easy. Not a lot of use when it goes down rapidly at 5am and you wake up to find yourself trapped in a cabin. The 10 survivors got to a lifeboat. Because this is a sailing yacht, it has a deep keel to counteract the forces from the sail. But it's a liftable keel, and was probably up while it was anchored. A tornado of water strong enough to snap the aluminium mast is going to put a lot of rotational force on the hull if it catches it side-on. No counteraction from the keel, and it's straight over. Once it's over, that water's getting in, especially if the people who got woken by the storm and went up on deck to watch left the doors open...
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 20, 2024 14:19:23 GMT
Yes, it would be very boring when there’s no wind for the sail boat. Stationary.
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Post by bernythedolt on Aug 20, 2024 20:58:26 GMT
Yes, it would be very boring when there’s no wind for the sail boat. Stationary. The twin diesel engines and 40 tons of fuel required to haul the old barge up to 15 knots may have occasionally taken the edge off the tedium though 
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 21, 2024 5:20:52 GMT
15knots? That’s hyper luxury. 🤣
I didn’t know the Perini Navi 56m series Yacht is Powered by two 965 HP 8-cylinder MTU diesel engines capable of cruising at 12 knots! 🤣🤣🤣
Did it have 40 tons of fuel on board at the time before it sank? no idea. May be it can sail 3000nm at 9knots
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 21, 2024 7:53:49 GMT
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