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Post by bernythedolt on Oct 19, 2024 11:35:03 GMT
Thanks. Worth pointing out this 'uncertain estimate' of £130bn looks to be cumulative rather than per annum as you quoted. I'm not an economist, so not sure this list tells the full story, but our current GDP growth doesn't seem to be faring that badly versus the rest of Europe. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_GDP_growth
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 19, 2024 12:31:01 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Oct 19, 2024 12:56:30 GMT
That made me smile I have to admit. Whether its 350m, 250m or 160m every week which is ten to twenty billion annually is a huge spend. Who cares whether its half the real figure or not? You have to remember that I actually wish we hadn't left the EU. But this is one of the positive reasons for leaving. Or are you gonna tell me that when weighing up the pros and cons or leaving/remaining paying a few hundred million per week is one of the pros ?  Well, yes, given leaving has cost the economy far, far more... GDP about £130bn/year lower as a direct result. And, yes, £8.3bn is a big number. But in the context of the total government expenditure (roughly £1tn/year, so about 0.8%), or even GDP (0.3%), it's tiny. "Price of everything, value of nothing"No, that's not logical. When weighing up the pros and cons then paying less per year is a pro and if what you say is correct then that is clearly a con. One goes in the left hand list and the other goes in the right hand list. I'm sure most children would understand that. So lets be logical. Mind you I don't blame your muddled thought processes. Just today there was an article in the Indy about how much this is all supposedly costing us based on comments by an SNP member (hmmm). They didn't even mention once the ongoing costs that we are not going to be paying anymore. That's a free press of course - free to take sides.
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james100
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Post by james100 on Oct 19, 2024 13:10:39 GMT
Thanks. Worth pointing out this 'uncertain estimate' of £130bn looks to be cumulative rather than per annum as you quoted. I'm not an economist, so not sure this list tells the full story, but our current GDP growth doesn't seem to be faring that badly versus the rest of Europe. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_GDP_growthMissing the point I know, but I note the top 6 are all well known low tax regimes whilst this country awaits Labour's budgetary sword of damocles in a week or so, gaslit as "pro-growth"
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 19, 2024 13:15:45 GMT
Well, yes, given leaving has cost the economy far, far more... GDP about £130bn/year lower as a direct result. And, yes, £8.3bn is a big number. But in the context of the total government expenditure (roughly £1tn/year, so about 0.8%), or even GDP (0.3%), it's tiny. "Price of everything, value of nothing"No, that's not logical. When weighing up the pros and cons then paying less per year is a pro and if what you say is correct then that is clearly a con. One goes in the left hand list and the other goes in the right hand list. I'm sure most children would understand that. So lets be logical. I run a shop. I could save the cost of employing staff by not opening. I'll lose far more than I save, because I won't sell anything. Is that a net positive? We paid a small amount to be a member of an organisation we got a huge benefit from. We saved a small amount, we lost a huge amount. Is that a net positive?
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Oct 19, 2024 15:23:56 GMT
I must say I'm no more proud of the Victorian sewers than I am of the sewers of Paris. I think there's something fundamental here shaping attitudes. You are Liberal minded if you appreciate people and their achievements in general, Conservative if you feel personal share in the achievements of .. Henry V? Just back from Poland. What a massive change is going on there! Lodz was a total pit last time I saw it, now there has been massive investment there and its become wonderful. I think the Poles may have eaten the Germans' lunch. I was in Danzig not so long ago and was pleased to see that their potholes were on an equal to our own. The European Solidarity Centre must have taken all the budget .
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Post by bernythedolt on Oct 19, 2024 23:13:10 GMT
Not entirely sure of your point here*, but if you dismiss the first 15 in the list as small-fry, a collection of inconsequential islands and small-hitters, outliers mostly, the UK becomes mid-table amongst its similar-sized peers. Also, looking at "GDP per head" is not especially informative once you allow for our increase in population in the past two or three years. The per capita figure has been terribly skewed. From fig.1 of your ONS link: "The UK population has recently increased at its fastest pace in over 75 years". And by recent, the graph shows they mean 2022-23. (*If you are suggesting I cherry-picked the data, ignoring 2020-22, I can assure you I simply googled "European countries by gdp growth" (or similar) and my link above was the first Wikipedia result. It happens to be the data as at 2023, which I thought was reasonable, being as up-to-date as possible). Notwithstanding, your final link - even allowing for my 'per capita' misgiving - shows the divergence between the UK and EU has been quite trivial, almost non-existent, over at least the past 30 years (move the year slider to see this). It's been nip & tuck, with no more than the odd 1 or 2% difference between the two in all that time.... bar the covid years, which was an exceptional time for everyone. During that small timeframe, the UK briefly fell below, then briefly climbed above, the EU. Since when, we're all back on an even keel, within that 1 or 2% of each other once again. With barely a fag paper between the GDP/head growth of the UK and EU for at least 30 years, why aren't we seeing it in this graph if Brexit really did kick us in the GDP nuts?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 20, 2024 7:39:36 GMT
Also, looking at "GDP per head" is not especially informative once you allow for our increase in population in the past two or three years. Surely that's precisely WHY per-capita is the only relevant metric? After all, if you buy the "immigration" line, then at least most of the population increase is working-age, unlike natural population growth. Population growth is low, btw - just one person per three hundred for the last few years, way below the modern average. www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/population-growth-rate
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Post by bernythedolt on Oct 20, 2024 10:26:46 GMT
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 20, 2024 10:33:20 GMT
Are we looking at the same graph? 2015 is when the country started to tear itself apart with the election being fought on the referendum, then campaigning starting. Total per capita GDP growth for 2015-2023 - EU +11.8%, UK +3.4% Once it actually happened, 2020/1, it's mixed in with the UK's abysmal covid response, too. Total for 2020-23 - EU +3.6%, UK -2.0%
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Post by bernythedolt on Oct 20, 2024 10:46:09 GMT
Are we looking at the same graph?2015 is when the country started to tear itself apart with the election being fought on the referendum, then campaigning starting. Total per capita GDP growth for 2015-2023 - EU +11.8%, UK +3.4% Once it actually happened, 2020/1, it's mixed in with the UK's abysmal covid response, too. Total for 2020-23 - EU +3.6%, UK -2.0% Same graph? Maybe not! All I'm seeing is two lines, one EU one UK, which more or less parallel each other between those years (and for the past 30+ years). What I'm not seeing for some reason are the numbers you're seeing. Maybe it's different browsers or something else. I'll take a closer look later.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 20, 2024 10:51:01 GMT
Are we looking at the same graph?2015 is when the country started to tear itself apart with the election being fought on the referendum, then campaigning starting. Total per capita GDP growth for 2015-2023 - EU +11.8%, UK +3.4% Once it actually happened, 2020/1, it's mixed in with the UK's abysmal covid response, too. Total for 2020-23 - EU +3.6%, UK -2.0% Same graph? Maybe not! All I'm seeing is two lines, one EU one UK, which more or less parallel each other between those years (and for the past 30+ years). What I'm not seeing for some reason are the numbers you're seeing. Maybe it's different browsers or something else. I'll take a closer look later. Hover your mouse over the lines to see the figures. Then simply add up each year's figure.
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Post by bernythedolt on Oct 20, 2024 11:25:46 GMT
Same graph? Maybe not! All I'm seeing is two lines, one EU one UK, which more or less parallel each other between those years (and for the past 30+ years). What I'm not seeing for some reason are the numbers you're seeing. Maybe it's different browsers or something else. I'll take a closer look later. Hover your mouse over the lines to see the figures. Then simply add up each year's figure. Ah, thanks. No mouse on my tablet, so I'd missed that. These are growth rates, so I'm not sure it's particularly valid to add them as you have. I think broadly the argument would be something like: for growth rate x over n years, (1+x)^n is NOT equal to 1+nx Furthermore, the long term trend is important. Looking at 20, 30 years and more, there's been the same level of divergence as your chosen 8 yr period on more than one occasion. Look, for example, at 2005 to 2012. The UK lagged behind for those years too... same pattern, but no Brexit. Again, another back in the 1970s. Sometimes it's been the EU lagging. I conclude there's no Brexit effect discernible in this graph.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 20, 2024 11:32:05 GMT
Hover your mouse over the lines to see the figures. Then simply add up each year's figure. Ah, thanks. No mouse on my tablet, so I'd missed that. These are growth rates, so I'm not sure it's particularly valid to add them as you have. I think broadly the argument would be something like: for growth rate x over n years, (1+x)^n is NOT equal to 1+nx Oh, I'm sure. But as a simple rule-of-thumb looking at the cumulative growth over a period, it certainly gives a clue. It shows exactly why the post-Pandemic "Biggest GDP increase ever" hype is steaming codswallop, of course, because it ignores just how huge a dive had happened over the pandemic. We simply just about got back to where we were before. Much of 2005-12 is the effect of the 2008 crash, of course, which hit the UK so much harder than many other countries because of Brown's failings. The 1970s was the "sick man of Europe" post-imperial doldrums which were resolved by the UK getting its head out of its backside, and joining the common market. Of course you do.
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Post by bernythedolt on Oct 20, 2024 12:30:54 GMT
Ah, thanks. No mouse on my tablet, so I'd missed that. These are growth rates, so I'm not sure it's particularly valid to add them as you have. I think broadly the argument would be something like: for growth rate x over n years, (1+x)^n is NOT equal to 1+nx Oh, I'm sure. But as a simple rule-of-thumb looking at the cumulative growth over a period, it certainly gives a clue. It shows exactly why the post-Pandemic "Biggest GDP increase ever" hype is steaming codswallop, of course, because it ignores just how huge a dive had happened over the pandemic. We simply just about got back to where we were before. Much of 2005-12 is the effect of the 2008 crash, of course, which hit the UK so much harder than many other countries because of Brown's failings. The 1970s was the "sick man of Europe" post-imperial doldrums which were resolved by the UK getting its head out of its backside, and joining the common market. Of course you do. Ouch.... Ok, let me reword it.  With the two lines running neck and neck with barely an airgap between them for over 30 years, you haven't demonstrated that there IS a Brexit effect there, massive or otherwise. PS. We trailed even worse 1961 to 1971. I expect there's a reason for that too... ...and yet life goes on.
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