JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Dec 30, 2013 8:13:35 GMT
I decided on a strategy for the stockmarket in 1995 when I inherited several individual shareholdings which made me nervous. I sold those and bought income investment trusts, using the dividends for income.
The average annual return for those has been 10.25% which I have been happy with, however I doubt whether that will be maintained in future so I would now choose to put more into P2P than I can now. The problem is the high level of capital gains tax in France where there is no annual exemption. I think I would be foolish to sell and lose a large cash amount to help finance excessive French public expenditure.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Dec 30, 2013 9:38:10 GMT
Just wondering if any of those that advocate buying at the bottom of a dip are currently filling their boots with Bitcoins?
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jimbo
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Post by jimbo on Dec 30, 2013 12:20:58 GMT
Just wondering if any of those that advocate buying at the bottom of a dip are currently filling their boots with Bitcoins? Hell no. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole. Got "danger" written all over them.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 30, 2013 16:46:27 GMT
I've been throwing out a lot of parts bought earlier in the year where the rates were low. This has included A+ risk at below 6%, A at below 7%, B at well below 8% and C at 8.4-9.0%. I decided to take the 0.25% hit and sell at par. I have been astonished at the speed with which people took them at far below the rates they could get on current offerings. But the whole point of selling at par is that (mostly) 'people' don't buy them - autobidders buy them, and many people still have their autobid rates set at the minima from months or years ago. FC made a point of saying, when they introduced mBRs, that the secondary market loan part buying would still take place at whatever autobid rates were set, regardless of whether these were sub-the-MBR or not. It's a bit unkind, really, to dump unwanted (and in some cases dead dodgy) loan parts onto unsuspecting newbies who think autobid is actually useful. In some cases secondary-market-hoover-bots will get there first, if the part looks (to their limited ruleset) attractive. Yeah, OK, I do it too - I dumped a ton (and took a big hit) when MBRs were first (and briefly) introduced. Since the I try to sell at 0.3 minimum markup, but anything really grotty which sticks for a week or two will get offloaded at par. Anyone want any super premium rum? 8>. You can still, on rare occasions, sell Cs yielding < 6% at par (were you daft enough to have any). Try selling them at -1% markup and you might be there forever, but at par they'll go.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Dec 31, 2013 10:45:20 GMT
Just wondering if any of those that advocate buying at the bottom of a dip are currently filling their boots with Bitcoins? Hell no. Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole. Got "danger" written all over them. How about some gold then?
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jimbo
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Post by jimbo on Dec 31, 2013 12:46:12 GMT
Already mentioned Gold, but the following chart highlights why I think some exposure is prudent, and why I think the falls over the last year will turn out to have presented a good buying opportunity: research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASESpot when QE1, QE2 and when the current QE3 programs began... Combine that with the following article on Japan's plan to double it's monetary base in two years from April 2013, and you have the resulting distorted markets we have to contend with today: www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-02/japan-government-bonds-rise-as-stocks-drop-monetary-base-grows.htmlThe following article describes the global financial market distortions resulting from the above far more succinctly and in far more detail than I ever could: www.prudentbear.com/2013/12/2013-in-review.html#.UsK34fRdXrKAt the end of the day, I'm of the opinion there remain no viable safe havens other than hard assets at the present time, and most hard asset price tags (fine art, diamonds, select global real estate, etc) are way out of the reach of myself and most other members of the middle classes. Doesn't leave many other places to go other than shiny metals if you think a global sovereign debt collapse by 2020 is a real possibility. For anybody reading this whose interest is piqued, I think the following book is a worthwhile purchase/read: Code Red, by John Mauldin and Jonathan Tepper |
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merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
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Post by merlin on Jan 4, 2014 11:30:03 GMT
Been away over the Festive Season and have returned to find all my pruning's have now been passed on to others. I thought a few might stick and I would have to zero rate them to encourage them to sell but all have gone with a small premium. As my current policy is to retreat from FC altogether maybe I should think about dumping my residual holding while the secondary market is performing so well. I will ponder this idea for a day or so as I now have accumulated quite a bit of spare cash with no home to currently put it in. Perhaps on the return of the AC team on Monday we may see a burst of activity with new opportunities appearing. One can only hope!
Jimbo
I guess you are right about Gold going up in price as it has risen now for two consecutive weeks. My guess is that the good old US defence industries will right now be trying to cook up another new war with Afghanistan shutting down this year. A war is usually a good recipe for rises in gold prices so don't put your flak jacket and tin hat away yet!
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jimbo
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Post by jimbo on Jan 4, 2014 17:08:34 GMT
Hey Merlin,
Re. Gold, it's had a good start to the year, but my gut tells me it's not out the woods yet. I've actually bought some coins since the New Year, but this doesn't mean I think the bottom is in. It just means I'm confident of seeing much higher prices on a 3 - 5 year view, and I'd rather increase my exposure while it's hated by short term speculative money. It suited me to buy a little more now rather than wait, but this approach will not be right for everyone.
In the shorter term, as long as markets are powering ahead on a theme of US (and to a lesser degree, UK) economic recovery, Gold is likely to come under further selling pressure in due course. It had a good start this time last year, then look at what happened...
Ultimately, I think the 'recovery' will end up being revealed as an emperor with no clothes - just more of the same old debt-fueled spending that got us into the mess in 2008. Western government debt levels continue to rise to percentages of GDP that have proved historically to be unsubstainable, and currencies such as the Yen, Sterling and the USD will continue to be debased by QE. I just wonder how many government bonds as an overall percentage in existence that western central banks will end up holding before the bond markets take fright...
All the above represents my own opinion, and is certainly not investment advice.
Cheers.
Jimbo
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merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
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Post by merlin on Jan 4, 2014 18:58:20 GMT
Hey Merlin, Re. Gold, it's had a good start to the year, but my gut tells me it's not out the woods yet. I've actually bought some coins since the New Year, but this doesn't mean I think the bottom is in. It just means I'm confident of seeing much higher prices on a 3 - 5 year view, and I'd rather increase my exposure while it's hated by short term speculative money. It suited me to buy a little more now rather than wait, but this approach will not be right for everyone. In the shorter term, as long as markets are powering ahead on a theme of US (and to a lesser degree, UK) economic recovery, Gold is likely to come under further selling pressure in due course. It had a good start this time last year, then look at what happened... Ultimately, I think the 'recovery' will end up being revealed as an emperor with no clothes - just more of the same old debt-fueled spending that got us into the mess in 2008. Western government debt levels continue to rise to percentages of GDP that have proved historically to be unsubstainable, and currencies such as the Yen, Sterling and the USD will continue to be debased by QE. I just wonder how many government bonds as an overall percentage in existence that western central banks will end up holding before the bond markets take fright... All the above represents my own opinion, and is certainly not investment advice. Cheers. Jimbo I'm pretty much with you all the way on this one. Back at the time that the "Wall" came down I was working for one of the big US arms manufacturers which had benefited greatly from the Regan "Star Wars" project. In the space of a decade the Company had nearly doubled in size when measured by turnover, profit, headcount or any other measure. With the collapse of the USSR the company was in panic mode and facing a loss of revenue the size of which even now is mind-numbing. In their search for solutions they ran many off the wall seminars for senior management in an attempt to diversify and stay alive. At one of these seminars, having deliberated for three days my VP actually said that "those of us at the top of the business are working hard to get another war going". The sad thing is they succeeded but gold shot up in price.
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merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
Posts: 902
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Post by merlin on Jan 5, 2014 19:02:09 GMT
Could not resist a bit more snipping and clipped another couple of K off my holding. What amazed me was the speed at which the sales went through. I guess with only 14 live auctions running all at low premiums what I had to sell look desirable. Must admit sold most at low mark up and only a couple at 3%. However still a good turnout of the Augean Stables which I can now hopefully turn into better quality AC products.
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mikeb
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Post by mikeb on Jan 5, 2014 20:53:26 GMT
Could not resist a bit more snipping and clipped another couple of K off my holding. What amazed me was the speed at which the sales went through. I guess with only 14 live auctions running all at low premiums what I had to sell look desirable. Must admit sold most at low mark up and only a couple at 3%. However still a good turnout of the Augean Stables which I can now hopefully turn into better quality AC products. I'm sure some people must be having finger trouble, or are just not comparing with current rates, some of the loan parts I've "lost" have been at ridiculous "that'll never sell" markups just to shift them off the eligible-for-sale list. I wasn't even fussed about selling them. I just roll my eyes and think, well, that offsets the ones that won't shift ... and promptly rebid on the next one. I have no idea what's going on, but keep it up  Signed Puzzled of Tunbridge Wells.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jan 5, 2014 21:50:46 GMT
Yep, it's been a crazy week or so .. C-s selling on secondary market for 9.4%, just for instance. Only problem is that there is no place (in FC at least) to reinvest the proceeds .. we need a few 'million pound of auctions' days. Well, no, more than a few I guess - there must be 5 or 10 million quid sloshing around in the coffers looking for a home now.
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merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
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Post by merlin on Jan 5, 2014 23:28:22 GMT
Yep, it's been a crazy week or so .. C-s selling on secondary market for 9.4%, just for instance. Only problem is that there is no place (in FC at least) to reinvest the proceeds .. we need a few 'million pound of auctions' days. Well, no, more than a few I guess - there must be 5 or 10 million quid sloshing around in the coffers looking for a home now. There may be a trick here that we are missing. A wise friend of mine an hour or so back said; "Don't forget their are around ten or more million people out there who have money in a building society account probably only earning .5%. So when they stumble across P2P and for the first time discover they can get a net of cost, net of tax 6%. Its like finding Eldorado and consequently they plunge in." So maybe that is what has been happening during the Xmas and New Year lull. All I know is that getting rid of my lower rate items has improved my overall predicted returns and allowed me to put money elsewhere.
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