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Post by westonkevRS on Mar 29, 2015 20:21:11 GMT
I notice the AER rates right now are 6.7%, possibly 6.8% depending on what the Market Rate is set overnight. I think with the weekend money coming in tomorrow, and then the start of the month repayments from Wednesday.... ....tonight could be the last chance to get this spike (and I do think it a spike, but that's just my opinion, I think the rates will shortly drift back down to 6% and maybe below over the summer) and be ahead of the new money in the lending queue. Just saying. @ westonkevRS |
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jonbvn
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Post by jonbvn on Mar 30, 2015 8:42:53 GMT
....tonight could be the last chance to get this spike (and I do think it a spike, but that's just my opinion, I think the rates will shortly drift back down to 6% and maybe below over the summer) and be ahead of the new money in the lending queue. Just saying. @ westonkevRSBased on what data do you come to this conclusion? I don't see it in the 2014 or 2013 lending data. In fact significantly more was lent in the summer of 2014 (May-Aug - £97.7MM) compared to the early part of the year (Jan-April £71.9MM).
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Post by westonkevRS on Mar 30, 2015 10:23:36 GMT
Seasonality wasn't a big deal before because it was obscured by growth. I think as RateSetter get bigger and the dynamic rates of growth diminish, seasonality of loans (Q1 and September, typically) will be more prominent. Additionally I just don't see the sustained borrower demand when lender rates are so high, the RateSetter markets will bring this back into equilibrium. Finally, the recent equity announcements confirmed the money will be largely used for brand and marketing, if that brings more lenders this will put downward presure on lender returns. I foresee more Lilac..... It's not all about rear view historical data, it's about context and plans for the future... westonkevRS |
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jonbvn
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Post by jonbvn on Mar 30, 2015 19:34:30 GMT
Seasonality wasn't a big deal before because it was obscured by growth. I think as RateSetter get bigger and the dynamic rates of growth diminish, seasonality of loans (Q1 and September, typically) will be more prominent. Additionally I just don't see the sustained borrower demand when lender rates are so high, the RateSetter markets will bring this back into equilibrium. Finally, the recent equity announcements confirmed the money will be largely used for brand and marketing, if that brings more lenders this will put downward presure on lender returns. I foresee more Lilac..... It's not all about rear view historical data, it's about context and plans for the future... westonkevRSSo will the new marketing campaign be primarily targeting lenders, or both lenders and borrowers? I guess this is a tightrope that all p2p & p2B platforms have to walk.
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Post by westonkevRS on Mar 31, 2015 5:53:53 GMT
Who knows what goes through those "creatives" heads, they operate on a different level to myself that I could never hope to comprehend. But typically P2P lenders spend marketing budgets on attracting lenders and "above the line" brand awareness. Lender money is where P2Ps have a USP compared to banks. And you only have to watch day time TV or look at advertising boards to see that loan advertising is a blood bath, ultra competitive space with no real USP Borrowers principlelly care about only the APR , speed, flexibility, ease - which most providers give. @ westonkevRS |
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Post by robinshould on Apr 2, 2015 8:19:45 GMT
I notice the AER rates right now are 6.7%, possibly 6.8% depending on what the Market Rate is set overnight. I think with the weekend money coming in tomorrow, and then the start of the month repayments from Wednesday.... ....tonight could be the last chance to get this spike (and I do think it a spike, but that's just my opinion, I think the rates will shortly drift back down to 6% and maybe below over the summer) and be ahead of the new money in the lending queue. Just saying. @ westonkevRSJust to say that you were spot on with this post. An ocean of money has washed into the 5 year market and rates down to 6.2%. I guess I now have to wait until September to stick more money in! I hope the borrower quality has taken a lift as a result of the cheaper money.
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Post by jackpease on Apr 2, 2015 10:18:06 GMT
11.17am: one month market 0.00%. I presume we can't borrow at that!
JP
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Apr 2, 2015 12:38:19 GMT
Just to say that you were spot on with this post. An ocean of money has washed into the 5 year market and rates down to 6.2%. So close to the 3-year, it seems daft not to.
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Post by p2plender on Apr 4, 2015 11:45:45 GMT
6.2% £247.7k 1740 £255.6k
6.1% £500 1 £7.9k
5.7% £7,430.93 1 £7,430.93
only 1 offer to lend £500 at 6.1% then in comes bull in a china shop and slaps 7 odd grand lend order at 5.7%.
Words fail me.
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jonbvn
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Post by jonbvn on Apr 4, 2015 13:43:23 GMT
6.2% £247.7k 1740 £255.6k 6.1% £500 1 £7.9k 5.7% £7,430.93 1 £7,430.93 only 1 offer to lend £500 at 6.1% then in comes bull in a china shop and slaps 7 odd grand lend order at 5.7%. Words fail me. £7.4k is negligible in the scheme of things. However one does wonder what the lender was thinking (if they were thinking at all)
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Post by bobthebuilder on Apr 5, 2015 3:08:28 GMT
Maybe they intended to lend it in the 3 year market and hit the wrong button?  |
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Post by p2plender on Apr 5, 2015 7:56:59 GMT
it reminds me of when I used to lend at FC and the 4% player. Any loan grade didn't matter, they were top of the lending auction at 4%. They must have racked up decent losses with the default rate for sure.
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Post by westonkevRS on Apr 6, 2015 19:51:15 GMT
Surprisingly (as we had underwriting all Easter break) and no repayment runs the cash in the 5-yr market has been maintained around £1m. So it looks like the Market Rate will get set at 6.2% or lower tonight. Considering that tonight there will be 4 days of repayment runs and this might even have the addition of some SIPP money (presuming all the Lamborghinis have sold out), personally I'm not leaving money at higher rates. But then I'm more than happy with anything over 5% so getting at the front of the queue at 6-6.2% is a bonus But that's just my personal opinion and not a recommendation or advice. Who knows it could spike later in the month but I don't think it will. @ westonkevRS |
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spiral
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Post by spiral on Apr 7, 2015 7:46:01 GMT
But that's just my personal opinion and not a recommendation or advice. Who knows it could spike later in the month but I don't think it will. Obviously crystal balls are not available but based on recent months, the current trend is not too dissimilar. I agree that downward pressure will ensue today and probably most of this week but I would be surprised if we don't head north of the mid 6's later this month, perhaps even touching 7% again. My repayment money is returning on offer to reflect that belief. I can always change it later if too much piles up in the account (or I get fed up with the daily emails telling me that I have money in my account not earning) 
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Apr 7, 2015 8:01:45 GMT
Of course, the thing to do on a day like today, when the repayment run is a long one, is to manually put your money in from your holding account at the probable market rate (6.2% today?) before the delayed RS operation does it according to your settings, possibly in several chunks as your repayments roll in. That way, you will be at the front of the queue of today's money, rather than several £100Ks further down it. This is especially effective if you normally have your settings on "market rate", but helps a bit at higher rates too. Me? I'm on a minor withdrawal phase for a week or so because I hurled a bit too much in while the rates were higher. |
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