|
Post by Financial Thing on Oct 27, 2015 21:12:01 GMT
I'm really surprised about this "jumping ship" mentality, especially into high risk platforms. Blinded by interest rates rather than looking at the long term risk reduction? We'll see how this plays out. Not sure why you think that we are going into higher risk platforms? A chunk of my FC cash taken out this month has gone into RS 36 months at an average of 5.5% after costs and with a provision fund. I am convinced that a lot of the non property A+/A loans coming up on FC would have been A/B six months ago. Plenty of mentions of high risk platforms on this thread, read again.
|
|
|
Post by Financial Thing on Oct 27, 2015 21:17:10 GMT
There is also the fact that SS is lending its own money in many of the loans. . ablender Can you link to where they state this? I wasn't aware. After seeing what happened to Trustbuddy and the negligence that has occurred, you have to have an iron stomach to trust that companies are doing right by their investors. At the end of the day, companies can tell their investors one thing and doing whatever they want. The recourse is unknown.
|
|
ablender
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,204
Likes: 555
|
Post by ablender on Oct 27, 2015 21:27:53 GMT
Financial Thing: Each loan will have a Bridging loans particulars file in pdf format. The following text is quoted from one of them: "Lendy Ltd has full underwriting in place for £3,000,000 of this loan if required. Interest will accrue immediately upon your commitment to this loan. If the loan does not go ahead, Lendy Ltd will pay all interest owed to all committed investors." The way I understand it is that they are advancing the money and then we buy parts from this loan. They will keep what is not sold. What do you think?
|
|
|
Post by Financial Thing on Oct 27, 2015 21:30:41 GMT
Financial Thing: Each loan will have a Bridging loans particulars file in pdf format. The following text is quoted from one of them: "Lendy Ltd has full underwriting in place for £3,000,000 of this loan if required. Interest will accrue immediately upon your commitment to this loan. If the loan does not go ahead, Lendy Ltd will pay all interest owed to all committed investors." The way I understand it is that they are advancing the money and then we buy parts from this loan. They will keep what is not sold. What do you think? I've never seen an issue with loans being undersold so I can't comment on how they would handle this but they sometimes offer cashback when loans are slow to fill.
|
|
ablender
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,204
Likes: 555
|
Post by ablender on Oct 27, 2015 21:35:57 GMT
I do not know but I have not encountered any problems at SS. Also there are no investors complaining about it unlike what is happing here at FC. I am one of the unhappy ones.
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,329
Likes: 11,549
|
Post by ilmoro on Oct 27, 2015 21:39:18 GMT
Financial Thing: Each loan will have a Bridging loans particulars file in pdf format. The following text is quoted from one of them: "Lendy Ltd has full underwriting in place for £3,000,000 of this loan if required. Interest will accrue immediately upon your commitment to this loan. If the loan does not go ahead, Lendy Ltd will pay all interest owed to all committed investors." The way I understand it is that they are advancing the money and then we buy parts from this loan. They will keep what is not sold. What do you think? Pretty sure this will be HNW individuals underwriting not necessarily Lendy themselves though wouldnt surprise me if Lendy dont have some skin in the game. Back when they started doing PBLs they put out a request for UWs.
|
|
ablender
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,204
Likes: 555
|
Post by ablender on Oct 27, 2015 21:44:39 GMT
ilmoro: So is this a positive thing or a negative one?
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 10,015
Likes: 5,144
Member is Online
|
Post by adrianc on Oct 27, 2015 21:47:42 GMT
I've never seen an issue with loans being undersold so I can't comment on how they would handle this... Quite a few of the recent loans have not filled through the pre-funding. p2pindependentforum.com/thread/3253/pre-funding-informationThe biggest gap was PBL059 - nearly £2m short, and it took over two weeks of chunks being released to the SM before it was all gone.
|
|
ablender
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,204
Likes: 555
|
Post by ablender on Oct 27, 2015 21:51:23 GMT
adrianc, do you know if my impression that SS invest in the loans is correct or not?
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 10,015
Likes: 5,144
Member is Online
|
Post by adrianc on Oct 27, 2015 21:56:15 GMT
No idea. savingstream may be willing to give you a definitive answer. My own gut feel is that it's academic to us whether their underwriting is internal or external. Bear in mind, too, that loans don't necessarily draw-down immediately, and that they take and hold-back all the interest from loans, so will have substantial-enough cash reserves on hand to fill any gaps, so I don't see it as impossible.
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,624
Likes: 6,437
|
Post by registerme on Oct 27, 2015 23:16:30 GMT
I would like to hear Financial Thing's reasons for being sceptical about Saving Stream. It's less a case of me thinking he / she is right to be sceptical, than it is that I think it's always good to challenge your assumptions. There's something about "12% per annum" that strikes me as too good to be true, and yet at the same time when I look at SS' model I think to myself "that makes sense". I wouldn't be getting 12% if there were no risk, but I am struggling to find / understand / quantify the risk (beyond the obvious)......
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,329
Likes: 11,549
|
Post by ilmoro on Oct 27, 2015 23:49:08 GMT
ilmoro: So is this a positive thing or a negative one? Positive IMO. Certainly originally Lendy financed the boats & early Pbls themselves until scale required UW support to offer bigger loans.
|
|
david42
Member of DD Central
Posts: 419
Likes: 346
|
Post by david42 on Oct 27, 2015 23:57:20 GMT
adrianc, do you know if my impression that SS invest in the loans is correct or not? My understanding is that when Saving Stream first started they would lend their own money to fill each loan, then offer the loan to other lenders so that Saving Stream had enough cash to make the next loan. Saving Stream was a loan company first and it later created the P2P facility to raise extra funds for lending. But the concept of Savings Stream lending their own money has not been mentioned since they moved into bigger loans and asked for underwriters.
|
|
|
Post by mrclondon on Oct 28, 2015 0:02:19 GMT
In a perfect market the gross yield would be perfectly correlated with risk. In the imperfect real world, SS have muddied the water slightly with a fixed 12% yield, which disguises the fact that if their loans were to appear on AC or TC the gross yields would probably vary between 10% and 15% to more accurately reflect the underlying risk.
Last time I looked FC were claiming after defaults a yield of 7.1% could be anticipated. AC provision fund backed accounts yield 7%, RS 5 year term is 6% to 7% zopa & Wellesley somewhat less.
I suggest it might be helpful to consider the risk of loan failures in a completely separate compartment to the risk of platform failure. A good starting point is to make the assumption that a well diversified basket of loans from a given platform will, after defaults return around 7%. So, taking SS as an example (but it applies to every platform) two questions need to be asked
a) do you feel that long term the loans being offered by SS will yield less than 7% after defaults ? (If so the 12% is too low) b) would the failure of the Lendy/SS dramatically reduce the probability of achieveing a 7% yield after defaults once the loan book is wound up ? (If so the 12% is too low)
(assuming no TrustBuddy style creative accounting ... )
If a SME loan with an unsupported PG fails, the probability of significant recovery is low, but a bridging loan failure at a low LTV is very likely to result in a full recovery. So a simple assessement of the risk of the SS loanbook could be distilled down to one question "On how many of the loans have the security valuations been overstated ?" Unfortunately you've only to look at some of the AC bridging loans (Kent , Ipswich, Anglesey) and FS (Lubin art, aboriginal art, Michael Jackson memorbillia) to realise that the probability is a proportion of secured loans on p2p/p2b platforms will actually have inadequate security cover.
The weakness of the current SS structure only matters is you are able to weed out ALL loans that will go bad from your selection. Otherwise you might as well accept your share of all bad loans were the platform to fail and be subject to administration. If you are in every loan, the end result will be the same irrespective of the structure.
|
|
|
Post by Financial Thing on Oct 28, 2015 2:03:01 GMT
registerme My reasonings would overlap many of the things mrclondon pointed out. I am certainly no expert on property or raw development land valuation but IMHO, the LTV's are overly optimistic possibly to entice investors into the water. We are so reliant on the underwriting / valuation quality within these platforms. After the Trustbuddy fiasco, I started to think, what do we really know about these P2P companies and their directors? Yes we eagerly hand over thousands without a care. Personally I don't know much but I trust the process. (Maybe the key is never turst a p2p platform with the "trust" in it's name.) There are so many unknowns as to how a loan book would be handled if a platform were to fail, especially a platform that is sector specific. I have no doubt in my mind if the platform were to fail, the administration problems could reduce the yield much lower than 7%. In the grand scheme of things, a 12% return for the risk involved isn't really that wonderful. What we really need to know is whether SS is a profitable business and whether it can sustain it's business model.
|
|