bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Dec 15, 2015 12:49:28 GMT
I've sold more zero premium property loans in the last 24 hours than I have for a while. Not a very large sample to base anything on.
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Dec 15, 2015 12:52:08 GMT
Best rates on offer are rising as well - also suggestive of a dearth of buyers. Rates on the SM are much better than for new loans. I think the gap is more than enough to compensate for the increased default risk. I wonder if the number of people taking their money away is having an impact? I think people need cash in hand to buy presents.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Dec 15, 2015 13:10:36 GMT
Best rates on offer are rising as well - also suggestive of a dearth of buyers. Rates on the SM are much better than for new loans. I think the gap is more than enough to compensate for the increased default risk. I wonder if the number of people taking their money away is having an impact? I think people need cash in hand to buy presents. And almost everything else in the world has got cheaper. If you'd put money into P2P because you didn't fancy the stock market, you might be changing your mind. Or perhaps both - buy they kids a barrel of oil each (less than $37 yesterday)?
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acky
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Post by acky on Dec 15, 2015 14:12:30 GMT
Likewise. Sales have been very slow the last few days Very slow here too. Perhaps one of the naughty Frolicking Chimps slipped and knocked the lever all the way to MaxPM. Sales of property at par slower than average for me, but not dramatically so. Sales of SME at a premium much slower, but perhaps no-one likes what I've got left!
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Dec 15, 2015 16:19:37 GMT
I've sold more zero premium property loans in the last 24 hours than I have for a while. Not a very large sample to base anything on. I expect the success or otherwise of sales may have been largely dependent on size of loan parts. Yesterday evening a single buyer purchased ALL of the loan parts of £140 or larger I previously held in 17048 and 17043 (largest single part £340). Presumably they purchased similarly-sized loan parts from other sellers too. Some sales of smaller loan parts to other buyers from other loans occured, but a relative trickle by comparison. I can only assume that the buyer in question sorted by loan part size to avoid RSI from purchasing hundreds of individual £20 or £40 parts.
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Post by ratrace on Dec 15, 2015 23:36:28 GMT
Best rates on offer are rising as well - also suggestive of a dearth of buyers. Rates on the SM are much better than for new loans. I think the gap is more than enough to compensate for the increased default risk. I wonder if the number of people taking their money away is having an impact? For me its got to the point where l no longer bother with A and B band loans on the PM. Because l feel if you know what to look for, there is better rates to be had on the SM for taking on the same level of risk.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Dec 16, 2015 8:26:44 GMT
Very slow here too. Perhaps one of the naughty Frolicking Chimps slipped and knocked the lever all the way to MaxPM. Sales of property at par slower than average for me, but not dramatically so. Sales of SME at a premium much slower, but perhaps no-one likes what I've got left! I saw a definite pick-up yesterday (doubtless linked to the lack of other large new property loans). 30-odd parts sold at par compared with 6 - 8 per day over the previous week or so. Xmas is coming .... 
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acky
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Post by acky on Dec 16, 2015 9:23:18 GMT
Sales of property at par slower than average for me, but not dramatically so. Sales of SME at a premium much slower, but perhaps no-one likes what I've got left! I saw a definite pick-up yesterday (doubtless linked to the lack of other large new property loans). 30-odd parts sold at par compared with 6 - 8 per day over the previous week or so. Xmas is coming .... Yesterday was better, I agree, back to the medium-term average for me. I'm hoping Santa's reindeers will munch heartily at my table!
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nick
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Post by nick on Dec 17, 2015 0:31:18 GMT
I suspect the SM will pick-up markedly next week as the PM winds down for Xmas. I recall last year a similar lull in the SM due a PM push prior to Xmas with SM being very active over the festive period. I was caught out and oversold into the SM in Xmas week me with a large proportion of cash from late Dec until mid/late Jan when the PM picked up. I'm hoping to avoid the same issue this year by hoarding/less aggressive in selling on the SM from next week to help reduce cash drag this time round.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Dec 17, 2015 8:07:14 GMT
I expect the success or otherwise of sales may have been largely dependent on size of loan parts. Of the 8 different buyers who took loan parts from me yesterday and today (all of them at par value, and mostly at buyer rates near 8%), not a single one took a loan part smaller than £40, and around 75% of the value transferred was in loan parts in the £250 to £500 range (to 3 different buyers). If I weren't reluctantly (but no faster than necessary) liquidating my portfolio right now, I'd be re-investing in discounted loan parts on the SM as we speak - there are loads offered at discounts up to 1.5% that I would estimate will almost certainly be selling increasingly quickly at par during the Christmas break.
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acky
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Post by acky on Dec 17, 2015 8:10:58 GMT
I suspect the SM will pick-up markedly next week as the PM winds down for Xmas. I recall last year a similar lull in the SM due a PM push prior to Xmas with SM being very active over the festive period. I was caught out and oversold into the SM in Xmas week me with a large proportion of cash from late Dec until mid/late Jan when the PM picked up. I'm hoping to avoid the same issue this year by hoarding/less aggressive in selling on the SM from next week to help reduce cash drag this time round. This will be my first Xmas on FC, so that's useful feedback, nick, thanks. I am worried about overselling but have bought "long" in the lead-up to Xmas in the hope of dropping my overall investment on the platform back to where I want to be. Do you have any quantification of the effect of the SM sales surge last year, like was it double the normal level, treble or more?
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blender
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Post by blender on Dec 17, 2015 8:57:42 GMT
I expect the success or otherwise of sales may have been largely dependent on size of loan parts. Of the 8 different buyers who took loan parts from me yesterday and today (all of them at par value, and mostly at buyer rates near 8%), not a single one took a loan part smaller than £40, and around 75% of the value transferred was in loan parts in the £250 to £500 range (to 3 different buyers). If I weren't reluctantly (but no faster than necessary) liquidating my portfolio right now, I'd be re-investing in discounted loan parts on the SM as we speak - there are loads offered at discounts up to 1.5% that I would estimate will almost certainly be selling increasingly quickly at par during the Christmas break.The only loan at -1.5% is Harley3 [Edit thanks Acky that should be Henley], which came with 3% cash back. Great if you want 8% for a long time.
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acky
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Post by acky on Dec 17, 2015 9:05:59 GMT
Of the 8 different buyers who took loan parts from me yesterday and today (all of them at par value, and mostly at buyer rates near 8%), not a single one took a loan part smaller than £40, and around 75% of the value transferred was in loan parts in the £250 to £500 range (to 3 different buyers). If I weren't reluctantly (but no faster than necessary) liquidating my portfolio right now, I'd be re-investing in discounted loan parts on the SM as we speak - there are loads offered at discounts up to 1.5% that I would estimate will almost certainly be selling increasingly quickly at par during the Christmas break.The only loan at -1.5% is Harley3, which came with 3% cash back. Great if you want 8% for a long time. That's Henley 3 of course. But I agree, I suspect the 1%+ discount loans will flip like a dead dolphin with amputated flippers, even over Xmas.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Dec 17, 2015 9:10:49 GMT
The only loan at -1.5% is Harley3, which came with 3% cash back. Great if you want 8% for a long time. The cashback it came with is irrelevant now (except for understanding why the seller is willing to offer such a large discount) - potential buyers will be comparing it with the cashback and/or discounts available on other loans, and autobid users certainly won't be factoring it into their decision at all. Given the likely clearout over Christmas, I can't see discounts or cashbacks over 1% being necessary again any time soon, so if I were "shopping", those (and others offered at more than 1% discount) would be close to the front of my shopping list (even if they don't sell at par, a 1% or lower discount will probably be attractive immediately after the New Year). YMMV of course.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Dec 17, 2015 9:32:24 GMT
Given the likely clearout over Christmas, I can't see discounts or cashbacks over 1% being necessary again any time soon, so if I were "shopping", those (and others offered at more than 1% discount) would be close to the front of my shopping list (even if they don't sell at par, a 1% or lower discount will probably be attractive immediately after the New Year). Agreed. I swept up £1000 of £20 parts in Harley St 2 yesterday that were generously priced at -1.5%, simply to get cash reinvested pre-Xmas in the absence of anything else worth buying. I could probably move them on at -0.8% today if I wanted (there's only 1 £20 part currently at -1%) but I think -0.5% should be enough by New Year.
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