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Post by ratrace on Aug 30, 2015 9:00:58 GMT
Quite a lot of E loans parts selling at par have turned up across a number of loans this morning. Most of these loans have their first payment due on the 31st.
So am guessing lenders are trying to sell out before there is a risk of default.
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Post by goldservice on Aug 30, 2015 10:29:44 GMT
Yes, there are at least 5 E loans accruing since 31 July. I started selling mine on Friday and the last parts went this morning. Those who have left it until today to sell may be cutting it fine - or offering discounts.
What’s the best term for such buying-to-sell? Not flipping because the parts aren't bought to sell. They are bought to hold for a bit and then sell. Perhaps 'shorting' is a better term but that has other connotations. 'Caretaking'?
I have toyed with buying E parts on the SM after the first payment, with a view to selling them before the 2nd repayment is due. If the parts were at par (which is uncommon), the return would be about 12% after fees - perhaps a rather stressful or tedious way to earn 12% compared with other options.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 30, 2015 11:24:21 GMT
What’s the best term for such buying-to-sell? The IB equivalent for shares / bonds would probably be something like be warehousing. The retail equivalent in this case is probably more akin to stacking shelves  .
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Aug 30, 2015 16:08:17 GMT
I like "warehousing", although 'boarding' would probably work too, (at this time of year 'summer schooling' maybe).
Sort of like the (old time) share concept of B&B, but with a longer time scale .. in this case stripping the monthly interest, rather than stripping the CGT liability.
However as Goldservice pointed out elsewhere, it isn't much of a game when they are slow to draw down, and a large %age don't fly at all (after 2 weeks, in some cases).
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Post by goldservice on Aug 30, 2015 16:45:40 GMT
Actually, I think it was you that said that - on the thread p2pindependentforum.com/thread/2869/love-new-risk-bands - apologies if I have misunderstood. My comment was that a successful game would require, for example, 7 days maximum without interest accruing including rejects. I didn't say what the actual figure is (based on a large number of E loans). I was going to wait to see if others had any thoughts on what it might be. |
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Aug 30, 2015 18:56:27 GMT
Ah, I thought you said your numbers were worse than the 7 you thought was needed.
My numbers look like an average or 10-12 days with no interest (based on a small and lopsided sample so far - my largest E-bid was one of those rejected after ~2 weeks) .. in which case I (still) think 2% or 3% CB property loans look a better option (although I notice the ones that could have drawn down on Friday didn't, yet).
Your 7 days sounds reasonable, although I'm not sure 'sell before first payment' is really going to be required, mostly when they fail that fast someone yells 'fraud' and FC cough up. Second payment now .. hmm. 12% is not very aggressive though, some of the short duration property loans were yielding nearly that without requiring any action except buy/hold/(pray).
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Post by goldservice on Aug 30, 2015 19:30:52 GMT
<Ah, I thought you said your numbers were worse than the 7 you thought was needed>
Not exactly. I just said that my experience was quite different. I'll say more on that other thread.
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Post by ratrace on Aug 30, 2015 19:54:55 GMT
Yes, there are at least 5 E loans accruing since 31 July. I started selling mine on Friday and the last parts went this morning. Those who have left it until today to sell may be cutting it fine - or offering discounts. What’s the best term for such buying-to-sell? Not flipping because the parts aren't bought to sell. They are bought to hold for a bit and then sell. Perhaps 'shorting' is a better term but that has other connotations. 'Caretaking'? I have toyed with buying E parts on the SM after the first payment, with a view to selling them before the 2nd repayment is due. If the parts were at par (which is uncommon), the return would be about 12% after fees - perhaps a rather stressful or tedious way to earn 12% compared with other options. l think that for the first 2 months even E loans are a lowish risk hold. l feel its when you get to 4 or 5 months that is when you need to begin to sweat. So am willing to hold them for the first 2 months before a begin to sell them.
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Post by ratrace on Aug 30, 2015 20:09:56 GMT
The way l will be looking to hold E loans is to buy new or on the SM before there first repayment, but only if there selling at par or better still a discount.
Then holding on to them for the first 2 repayments before looking to sell them on.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Sept 20, 2015 16:45:13 GMT
Here's the current data on the SM .. I expect the forum will murder the formatting, but hopefully you can decode it .. if not I will post it as a .jpg or .png or whatever.
Part#500 Part # 250 Part#1
Date A+ A B C D E
14/10/2014 00:05 9.5 10.2 11.9 13.4 13.8 …. 9.7 10.4 12.2 13.6 14.0 …. 10.5 11.0 13.3 13.9 14.2 ….
01/11/2014 00:06 10.0 11.1 13.0 13.9 14.1 …. 10.2 11.5 13.2 14.1 14.2 …. 11.0 12.8 13.7 14.5 14.5 ….
01/12/2014 00:06 9.9 11.1 12.3 13.6 14.0 …. 10.2 11.6 12.6 13.7 14.2 …. 11.0 13.1 13.5 14.4 14.4 ….
01/01/2015 00:00 9.9 10.8 11.7 13.3 13.6 …. 10.0 11.3 11.9 13.5 13.7 …. 10.7 12.1 13.5 13.7 14.0 ….
01/02/2015 00:01 8.9 10.3 11.2 12.9 13.5 …. 9.1 10.9 11.4 13.1 13.6 …. 9.9 11.6 12.1 13.6 14.5 ….
01/03/2015 18:01 9.1 10.2 11.1 12.9 13.6 …. 9.2 10.3 11.3 13.0 13.8 …. 9.7 11.2 12.0 13.3 14.0 ….
01/04/2015 00:00 9.1 9.7 10.8 12.3 13.3 …. 9.1 9.9 10.9 12.5 13.4 …. 9.4 10.7 11.3 13.5 13.7 ….
01/05/2015 00:00 9.0 11.0 10.8 12.4 13.5 …. 9.1 11.3 11.0 12.7 13.6 …. 9.4 11.4 12.0 13.3 14.0 ….
01/06/2015 00:01 9.4 10.8 11.2 12.2 13.6 …. 9.6 11.3 11.4 12.4 13.7 …. 9.9 11.6 12.3 13.4 14.0 ….
01/07/2015 00:00 9.6 10.9 11.8 12.3 13.5 …. 9.7 11.5 12.0 12.4 13.6 …. 9.9 12.8 12.7 13.0 13.9 17.3
01/08/2015 00:00 10.1 11.0 12.1 12.7 13.9 18.0 10.2 11.3 12.4 13.0 14.0 18.0 10.4 11.8 12.9 13.5 14.4 18.1
01/09/2015 00:01 10.2 11.4 12.1 13.4 14.3 18.1 10.3 11.6 12.5 13.6 14.4 18.2 10.6 12.6 13.0 14.0 14.7 18.8
20/09/2015 09:28 9.5 10.6 11.5 12.4 14.0 18.0 9.5 10.7 11.9 12.9 14.1 18.1 10.7 11.6 12.6 13.3 14.4 18.1
Basically, 'big drop in SM rates since the fixed rate announcement', but still rather higher than they were back in 1q/2q when things were even more dire, and the rates are almost all still ahead of the new fixed rate bands, so some more decline is likely.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Sept 21, 2015 8:02:11 GMT
My sense (anecdotally from my own SM sales) is that the initial announcement led to a steep drop in marginal SM rates which then rallied a little in the last week to 10 days, possibly because the cut-over to the Fixed Rate regime was further out than initially assumed. However I suspect this to be a classic "dead cat bounce" and that SM rates will drop sharply again once new auctions finally disappear next week.
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Post by goldservice on Sept 21, 2015 18:20:36 GMT
My sense (anecdotally from my own SM sales) is that the initial announcement led to a steep drop in marginal SM rates which then rallied a little in the last week to 10 days, possibly because the cut-over to the Fixed Rate regime was further out than initially assumed. However I suspect this to be a classic "dead cat bounce" and that SM rates will drop sharply again once new auctions finally disappear next week. That would be good for those who are planning to sell off a large chunk in order to start building up elsewhere ...
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Post by pete101 on Sept 24, 2015 8:43:06 GMT
During last week, I have sold off the majority of my older loans with > 24 months o/s at par or a tiny premium where the interest rate is less than the fixed rate that will be allocated to a loan of that risk/length next week. I am aware that autobid will pick some of these up, but it seems illogical to buy loans at lower interest rate than one will get the same quality loan next week. Am I missing something?
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blender
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Post by blender on Sept 24, 2015 8:46:13 GMT
During last week, I have sold off the majority of my older loans with > 24 months o/s at par or a tiny premium where the interest rate is less than the fixed rate that will be allocated to a loan of that risk/length next week. I am aware that autobid will pick some of these up, but it seems illogical to buy loans at lower interest rate than one will get the same quality loan next week. Am I missing something? Yes, you are lacking irrationality.
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TitoPuente
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Post by TitoPuente on Sept 24, 2015 8:48:22 GMT
During last week, I have sold off the majority of my older loans with > 24 months o/s at par or a tiny premium where the interest rate is less than the fixed rate that will be allocated to a loan of that risk/length next week. I am aware that autobid will pick some of these up, but it seems illogical to buy loans at lower interest rate than one will get the same quality loan next week. Am I missing something? Irrational exuberance?
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