bababill
Member of DD Central
Posts: 529
Likes: 245
|
Post by bababill on Jul 24, 2015 7:49:18 GMT
As a potential newbie on Assetz, I am reading some of the commentary on the activities section on their website. There is a bridging loan that defaulted back in November. At the time Assetz wrote something to the degree of its only been 3 weeks since the default give the borrower time please lenders and don't be so insistent. Now nearly 9 months later (July) a LPA receiver has finally been asked to take appointment of the property.
This is far far far too long in my opinion. Forget the issue of whether interest will be earned, the issue is that the capital is tied up for so long. (never mind that now valuers are saying the property is worth less then before...)
Anyhow, if this is how Assetz operates on 'gently' 'gently' approach then perhaps I can't be investing here. Is this the norm?
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,330
Likes: 11,549
|
Post by ilmoro on Jul 24, 2015 8:24:17 GMT
As a potential newbie on Assetz, I am reading some of the commentary on the activities section on their website. There is a bridging loan that defaulted back in November. At the time Assetz wrote something to the degree of its only been 3 weeks since the default give the borrower time please lenders and don't be so insistent. Now nearly 9 months later (July) a LPA receiver has finally been asked to take appointment of the propert far far far too long in my opinion. Forget the issue of whether interest will be earned, the issue is that the capital is tied up for so long. (never mind that now valuers are saying the property is worth less then before...) Anyhow, if this is how Assetz operates on 'gently' 'gently' approach then perhaps I can't be investing here. Is this the norm? Generally they try & work with the borrower because they argue that 1. FCA rules require them to be fair 2. Consensual exits are more likely to result in a better outcome for lenders A lot of lenders feel they are too soft and allow borrowers to string them along with vague promises, poor communication and prevarication. Just read a few of the threads relating to bridging loans, plumbers, and monitoring to get a feel for opinions plus relevant Q&As. (You may need pink access)* There are a lot of suspended loans with lender cash locked in, though the moves towards allowing trading of distressed loans in certain circumstances will release some of this. For ease of reference there is a list of distressed loans here (distressed by definition of revised conditions) Edit * pink access = access to private Assetz board, see instructions at top of Assetz forum board
|
|
ramblin rose
Member of DD Central
“Some people grumble that roses have thorns; I am grateful that thorns have roses.” — Alphonse Karr
Posts: 1,370
Likes: 857
|
Post by ramblin rose on Jul 24, 2015 9:42:34 GMT
As a potential newbie on Assetz, I am reading some of the commentary on the activities section on their website. There is a bridging loan that defaulted back in November. At the time Assetz wrote something to the degree of its only been 3 weeks since the default give the borrower time please lenders and don't be so insistent. Now nearly 9 months later (July) a LPA receiver has finally been asked to take appointment of the propert far far far too long in my opinion. Forget the issue of whether interest will be earned, the issue is that the capital is tied up for so long. (never mind that now valuers are saying the property is worth less then before...) Anyhow, if this is how Assetz operates on 'gently' 'gently' approach then perhaps I can't be investing here. Is this the norm? ...............(You may need pink access) ...................... bababill as a newbie you may not know what ilmoro means by 'pink access'. He means access to the "Private board for Assetz Capital members only" - see instructions at the top of the Assetz Capital board page for how to get access.
|
|
bababill
Member of DD Central
Posts: 529
Likes: 245
|
Post by bababill on Jul 24, 2015 9:44:43 GMT
Thanks... I applied yesterday for access perhaps it takes a couple of days..Maybe they still checking for funds as I had only deposited them yesterday also...
|
|
|
Post by mrclondon on Jul 24, 2015 10:18:33 GMT
bababill if the loan you referred to is number 84, a planning decision since the loan has drawn has rendered the security valuation at the time the loan was applied for as null & void, and has almost certainly reduced the value of the security, possibly by a substantial percentage. Going down the receiver route will crystallise that loss of value, and as such delaying action whilst the implications were worked through with the borrower and their consultants was the right course of action. A second planning application was developed and submitted a couple of months ago, but this appears to have been inadequate for detailed consideration by the local council and has now been removed from the council's website. And don't forget receiver fees have to be paid for out of the sale proceeds, so an overly hasty appointment of receivers could be a costly mistake. Plan on most distressed loans taking around 2 years to be brought to a conclusion.
|
|
bababill
Member of DD Central
Posts: 529
Likes: 245
|
Post by bababill on Jul 24, 2015 10:55:40 GMT
I think much better to call in the receivers right away. Say I invest £100. Now there is issue with planning permission and property looses 30 percent of value. I would still be covered as loan to value ratio is 70%. Let us say I still lost a further 10 percent of the capital for receivership fees etc. Had a receiver been appointed 7 months ago (after the initial one month of 'discussion') a total of 7 months would have been saved. Meaning that though now though I have only £90 pounds of my initial investment I would have been able to reinvest at 0.0083% per month and hence back up to £95.
First loss is the best loss.. no need to drag it out. I find this 'approach' concerning to me as an investor as it drags out the financial uncertainty. Where can I find the current default rates on Assetz Capital site?
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,330
Likes: 11,549
|
Post by ilmoro on Jul 24, 2015 11:58:24 GMT
I think much better to call in the receivers right away. Say I invest £100. Now there is issue with planning permission and property looses 30 percent of value. I would still be covered as loan to value ratio is 70%. Let us say I still lost a further 10 percent of the capital for receivership fees etc. Had a receiver been appointed 7 months ago (after the initial one month of 'discussion') a total of 7 months would have been saved. Meaning that though now though I have only £90 pounds of my initial investment I would have been able to reinvest at 0.0083% per month and hence back up to £95. First loss is the best loss.. no need to drag it out. I find this 'approach' concerning to me as an investor as it drags out the financial uncertainty. Where can I find the current default rates on Assetz Capital site? In terms of loans in default, a fair few. In terms of lost capital, I think I'm right in saying that any losses predicted have yet to be crystallised (can anyone correct me?), so nothing as yet, but there are some forecast to represent a loss of varying degrees. #146, #57, #41, #35 initially spring to mind. There is no on-site stats on defaults other than in individual loan details. Quick count makes it 13 in default, though some of those are only technical (ie extensions at default rate), 2 have been brought out, 1 is potentially about to, 1 will be added to the technicals, couple of covenant breaches but not defaulted. No official capital losses, though the ones youve listed are pretty guarantied except #41 which I think will actually be ok.
|
|
sqh
Member of DD Central
Before P2P, savers put a guinea in a piggy bank, now they smash the banks to become guinea pigs.
Posts: 1,428
Likes: 1,212
|
Post by sqh on Jul 24, 2015 12:43:41 GMT
I think much better to call in the receivers right away. Say I invest £100. Now there is issue with planning permission and property looses 30 percent of value. I would still be covered as loan to value ratio is 70%. Let us say I still lost a further 10 percent of the capital for receivership fees etc. Had a receiver been appointed 7 months ago (after the initial one month of 'discussion') a total of 7 months would have been saved. Meaning that though now though I have only £90 pounds of my initial investment I would have been able to reinvest at 0.0083% per month and hence back up to £95. First loss is the best loss.. no need to drag it out. I find this 'approach' concerning to me as an investor as it drags out the financial uncertainty. Where can I find the current default rates on Assetz Capital site? If it is loan #84 that you are referring to, then you should consider the loan history. This loan offered an above average interest rate of 15% and was very popular. Even when PP was refused and the loan defaulted there were numerous opportunities to sell at par on the Secondary Market. Loan defaulted November 2014 and was disabled March 2015. Those who stayed in were the risk takers, wanting 18%, and only got caught out when loan discounting was not brought back as planned and trading was suddenly disabled. If you are risk averse you would not have been impacted.
|
|
bababill
Member of DD Central
Posts: 529
Likes: 245
|
Post by bababill on Jul 24, 2015 16:41:48 GMT
Thank you for pointing this out. Very interesting... Would this apply for the other loans that are/were in default?
|
|
|
Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Jul 24, 2015 17:18:39 GMT
As a potential newbie on Assetz, I am reading some of the commentary on the activities section on their website. There is a bridging loan that defaulted back in November. At the time Assetz wrote something to the degree of its only been 3 weeks since the default give the borrower time please lenders and don't be so insistent. Now nearly 9 months later (July) a LPA receiver has finally been asked to take appointment of the property. This is far far far too long in my opinion. Forget the issue of whether interest will be earned, the issue is that the capital is tied up for so long. (never mind that now valuers are saying the property is worth less then before...) Anyhow, if this is how Assetz operates on 'gently' 'gently' approach then perhaps I can't be investing here. Is this the norm? I think it's worth reading through some of the defaulted loans that have been paid off. So go to the AC site and sort all loans by "Repaid" I thinking of South Manchester (several tranches, extensions and similar names but all the same loan) also Bolton BL, & Furniture Retailer (also called FF on this forum). Two of these are completely paid back and one the default int. is still being pursued, but normal int & capital were repaid. These three case might be the "easy" ones to sort with the other taking longer and being more problematic. I'm not commenting on the possibility of loss.
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,330
Likes: 11,549
|
Post by ilmoro on Jul 24, 2015 17:32:49 GMT
Thank you for pointing this out. Very interesting... Would this apply for the other loans that are/were in default? All the bridging loans were tradeable after the initial 'default' for a significant periods. Loans that were suspended immediately were those where the company went belly up, #57, #70 & #146 so AC had to act quickly to secure lenders position before others did (and fast lenders bailed). Some missed loan repayments for a while #39, #41, #68 (#35?) but remained tradeable for a short period. #123 was suspended immediately as was #45 (where AC have been quick to introduce LPA appointment to a vote) So as you can see its quite variable how loans have been handled when in default. Edit: Further to Ton's post also Liverpool BL was recovered & #68 has just been managed out of default.
|
|
bababill
Member of DD Central
Posts: 529
Likes: 245
|
Post by bababill on Jul 25, 2015 8:52:19 GMT
93 active loans and out of that 17 are ‘investment paused.’
I don’t see how I can make this site work for me unless I micromanage it. Even then the odds seemed stacked against it…I am not good at flipping loans; FC never worked for me either...
|
|
|
Post by mrclondon on Jul 25, 2015 10:01:31 GMT
93 active loans and out of that 17 are ‘investment paused.’ I don’t see how I can make this site work for me unless I micromanage it. Even then the odds seemed stacked against it…I am not good at flipping loans; FC never worked for me either... I take a contrarian view to perhaps the majority of lenders on p2p platforms, most of whom won't have discovered this forum and the advice within it. I expect capital losses to the extent I expect to make no more than 6% after losses over an economic cycle.
The rates of 9 to 13% typical of secured asset lending (AC, TC, SS, FS, Abl) with risk of capital losses should be compared to those platforms with strong provision funds (RS, ZP, W&Co) with rates of less than 6%, and in some cases substantially less depending on loan term. The extra yield you are getting at AC etc is to compensate you for future capital losses. Also worth noting the long run yield after losses at FC on a fully diversified portfolio is around 6.5%. Any yield over 13% implies a much elevated risk of capital loss. I avoid a few loans I consider to be higher risk (just a few loans on AC but most loans on TC) - usually due to weaker than average security, but beyond that the strategy is diversification both between platforms and between loans on a platform. Flipping loans is the wrong strategy IMO, as that is implying a fixed level of diversification, far better is when the free cash for investing has been exhausted to sell part of a loan holding to diversify into a new loan. Its a simple decision - is a yield of 6% after losses worth the effort of managing a portfolio of an absolute minimum of 200 loans ? For me it is, as I'm overweight in property, already have a substantial amount in equities via my SIPP, and I'm not keen on bonds.
|
|
bigfoot12
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,817
Likes: 816
|
Post by bigfoot12 on Jul 25, 2015 10:45:56 GMT
93 active loans and out of that 17 are ‘investment paused.’ I don’t see how I can make this site work for me unless I micromanage it. Even then the odds seemed stacked against it…I am not good at flipping loans; FC never worked for me either... I take a contrarian view to perhaps the majority of lenders on p2p platforms, most of whom won't have discovered this forum and the advice within it. I expect capital losses to the extent I expect to make no more than 6% after losses over an economic cycle.
The rates of 9 to 13% typical of secured asset lending (AC, TC, SS, FS, Abl) with risk of capital losses should be compared to those platforms with strong provision funds (RS, ZP, W&Co) with rates of less than 6%, and in some cases substantially less depending on loan term. The extra yield you are getting at AC etc is to compensate you for future capital losses. Also worth noting the long run yield after losses at FC on a fully diversified portfolio is around 6.5%. Any yield over 13% implies a much elevated risk of capital loss. I avoid a few loans I consider to be higher risk (just a few loans on AC but most loans on TC) - usually due to weaker than average security, but beyond that the strategy is diversification both between platforms and between loans on a platform. Flipping loans is the wrong strategy IMO, as that is implying a fixed level of diversification, far better is when the free cash for investing has been exhausted to sell part of a loan holding to diversify into a new loan. Its a simple decision - is a yield of 6% after losses worth the effort of managing a portfolio of an absolute minimum of 200 loans ? For me it is, as I'm overweight in property, already have a substantial amount in equities via my SIPP, and I'm not keen on bonds. I agree with almost everything you say, though I hope to do a little better than 6% over the cycle. If my AC loans (high effort on my part) do worse than my RS loans (hardly any effort and 6.4%) I will be a bit disappointed (but not outraged). mrclondon what do you think of the AC Green fund, at 7% with a provision fund? Do you worry that these funds will be severely tested over a normal economic cycle?
|
|
bababill
Member of DD Central
Posts: 529
Likes: 245
|
Post by bababill on Jul 25, 2015 14:14:38 GMT
Mclondon you are very very right. Couple queries can one really manage 200 plus loans? Just to do the initial d.d. on the loans would take forever. I agree on a.c. I would have to lower my comfort requirements just to be able to pick up enough loans.
Why has there been so little reference to lend i.? Appreciate you have too much exposure to property but maybe more then half of loans on a.c. seem to be property loans? With lend i. its easy to earn 7.5 percent before capital losses. (None so far for me. )
I also avoid most loans on t.c but when I find one I like to go in on a big way. Whereas with a.c. I get feeling more like f.c. and just do autobid or sorta autobid.
What about funding K? Or more of just the same.
|
|