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Post by captainconfident on Oct 4, 2014 9:30:08 GMT
As a reward for that amiable reply, I should conceded that I can see in the NSO figures what you are talking about. There was a 20% drop from q1 to q2 2014 due to a not very windy summer. But the wind contribution, currently around 5% of total generation, is more significant in the winter when PV generation drops away and fossil fuel demand peaks due to heating demand.
Interesting to read that you found up to date material in a waiting room. Remembering the Tommy Cooper joke "went to the dentist the other day...........................terrible news about the Titanic".
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Oct 6, 2014 15:05:09 GMT
.... But I won't get started on the stupidity of UK & EU energy policy otherwise I'll be here all day. So what should be done?
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Post by chielamangus on Oct 6, 2014 17:10:07 GMT
Regretably, there is a very small audience here for a discussion of quite complicated issues. I think I will have to develop a blog or a book on the subject. Suffice it to say that I first worked on wind energy in the 1970s and on global warming/climate change in the 1980s - well ahead of most people with pretensions to expertise in these subjects. And despite the fact that my life style has always been, in modern parlance, green (though my mother would have called it waste not, want not), my conclusions on these subjects are anathema to the modern green movement.
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Post by bracknellboy on Oct 6, 2014 20:10:58 GMT
a Regretably, there is a very small audience here for a discussion of quite complicated issues. The audience is small, but I don't think it is too small minded for a discussion of quite complicated issues. I think the views of many who take seriously such issues as climate change etc. are anathema to the banner headline views of the 'green movement'. Mine frequently are. But 'placard waving' movements have always been prone to a simplistic take on a subject. Its always easier to be against something, and therefore be adamant that 'something else' must be better, than it is to think more deeply about things. Esp. if that helps you to feel more righteous. Which is not to diss. the intentions of many who would call themselves 'green', I just wish the debate was less shallow than it frequently is. For everyones sake. Back to the subjuct of lending to wind turbines. I am not a huge fan of covering the country in turbines, let alone massive off shore windfarms, on quite a few grounds. However wind power probably has some role to pay as part of a policy of diversified energy sources. Regardless, if I'm forced to pay out for them from one hand and pretty much a guarantee that they will get built because of the subsidies, then I'm comfortable with trying to recoup some of that back from the other hand. Indeed adamant that I should recoup, given that I don't full heartedly support the existing green energy subsidy regime. I don't think a future UK govt. is going to retrospectively change the subsidy regime for existing/committed. You can never say never, but meeting its current (right or wrong) international obligations will be hard enough. And the only thing worse than putting large number of WTs in inappropriate places because of an artificially skewed market would be to have them still there but sitting permanently idle because the operator has gone bust due to a changed subsidy regime. P.S. I would add that the threat of a changed future subsidy regime - indeed my expectation of one at some point - would make me very cautious of lending to a company who's business was supplying the market. but that is an entirely different story.
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Post by chielamangus on Oct 6, 2014 20:50:55 GMT
The audience is small, but I don't think it is too small minded for a discussion of quite complicated issues. Hardly small minded, but I am minded to influence a much larger audience if I have to set out all the issues with explanations! My time is not infinite - I feel it ticking away .... And the fundamental issue is not really an energy issue at all. Just have to say that the wind turbine sector is not supported by the taxpayer, but by all electricity consumers. It's a regressive tax. And a pointless one, in terms of the stated objective. I don't even look at wind turbines as a potential investor - it's a social and economic issue for me. Not a very good profit maximiser, am I!
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Oct 8, 2014 9:55:29 GMT
Dear Chielmangus
So what then? energy efficiency - yes I assume (or do I?) nuclear ? yes/no/sort of? gas? coal? solar? wind - no obviously tidal? biomass? geothermal? I'm only doing this off the top of my head, so I've probably forgotten several, and yes this discussion could go elesewhere, but I think you owe it to us to at least state which way you think we should be heading given that you've declared the current path all wrong.
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Post by tybalt on Oct 8, 2014 10:55:36 GMT
My vote would be Thorium Nuclear and true geo thermal.
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Post by captainconfident on Oct 8, 2014 18:24:21 GMT
You read some half remembered thing in a waiting room and now you're going to write a book about it! Try out your arguments on a small subset of the population first is my recommendation. My guess is you're not going to propose a single source, like 'just burn coal'. So it must be some kind of mixture. Is it 'Ukip mix', {coal oil gas, nuke} or green mix minus wind? Or some balance between? Do tell!
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Post by chielamangus on Oct 8, 2014 20:00:03 GMT
Dear Chielmangus So what then? energy efficiency - yes I assume (or do I?) nuclear ? yes/no/sort of? gas? coal? solar? wind - no obviously tidal? biomass? geothermal? I'm only doing this off the top of my head, so I've probably forgotten several, and yes this discussion could go elesewhere, but I think you owe it to us to at least state which way you think we should be heading given that you've declared the current path all wrong. I wish I had never started this! This thread was originally about wind turbines which seem very popular with P2P/P2B investors. I'm an economist and more concerned with wider economic and social issues related to particular sources and levels of energy usage, rather than the private return on a particular type of investment which is of more concern on this forum. I reiterate - the fundamental issue is not energy. There is something underlying many world problems which nobody wants to think about. But it would require considerable argument drawing together many strands to convince people. No point in going off half-cock. As for sarky Captain Confident, our resident greeny (in all senses), I've been thinking about this for over 30 years - not since I sat down in the barber's shop last week. One early influence was Social Limits to Growth by Fred Hirsch in the late 70s. And why haven't I written a book on it? Life, dear CC, and having to earn a living. And now I am past my best and not even sure I could do justice to the subject. I have two other projects to finish first anyway. After those, I'll see what I can do. All this P2P business has not helped either, as it eats into my time - the DD and financial assessment of different loans, that is. And before anyone says it, yes, I have to do it as I have a retirement plan based on capital, not pensions, and the drop in interest rates has probably affected me more than most. I don't do it for fun. I won't interrupt the musings on wind power again. It's clearly frustrating for all parties.
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Post by bracknellboy on Oct 8, 2014 20:44:47 GMT
"There is something underlying many world problems which nobody wants to think about. "Think I've got it. Its People ! What we need is a wwide pandemic of something like Ebola or Marburg. That would sort that problem out. Especially if it establishes itself long enough in human hosts for it mutate to an airborne form. But of course that would never happen, as the Western world has had decades to think about the consequences of combining international air travel with increasing urbanisation of African populations. They and the WHO are bound to have rock solid contingency plans in their back pockets for when the inevitable happens and an outbreak fails to burn itself out in some poor isolated rural community as its always done before. So will have to find another solution.
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Post by chielamangus on Oct 9, 2014 12:04:54 GMT
"There is something underlying many world problems which nobody wants to think about. "Think I've got it. Its People ! What we need is a wwide pandemic of something like Ebola or Marburg. That would sort that problem out. Especially if it establishes itself long enough in human hosts for it mutate to an airborne form. But of course that would never happen, as the Western world has had decades to think about the consequences of combining international air travel with increasing urbanisation of African populations. They and the WHO are bound to have rock solid contingency plans in their back pockets for when the inevitable happens and an outbreak fails to burn itself out in some poor isolated rural community as its always done before. So will have to find another solution. And this just about sums up why its not worth discussing any serious (non-investment) issue on this forum. The wall of ignorance out there is enormous.
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Oct 9, 2014 18:36:18 GMT
Well Nostrodamus, you started by telling us that wind energy was a bad deal for consumers, I asked you what alternative you favoured, and you won't say, on the grounds that an energy policy is not the answer to all the world's problems. This discussion is indeed fruitless.
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Post by captainconfident on Oct 9, 2014 23:11:54 GMT
Yes, and I'm some sort of a bogie.
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Post by longjohn on Dec 10, 2014 14:12:38 GMT
This site Gridwatch gives realtime charts (updated every 30 seconds) for the UK and French domestic loads and the generating capacity to deliver it along with a year's historical data. Interesting stuff! John
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