wapping35
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Post by wapping35 on Aug 12, 2015 14:03:20 GMT
Well in the 5 yr I have just had Mondays order matched at 6.0% (email at 2.37pm)
I see the MR is 5.5% today which is why today's MR money got matched immediately in the early hours and that is why my 6.0% did not get matched last night (when it was near the front of the queue). I used to use the MR since it was low touch, but it is now delivering at least 0.3% less than I am getting just by setting a YR of 6.0% and waiting a few days (really by the end/middle of the week).
This setting of the MR based on a prior day's average seems madness. When on Monday's it is set based on Sunday's ultra-low volumes which always low balls the rate and then leads to the MR rising each week by +0.5%, since the prior days average means increases will be lagged at least 1-2 days.
Also why does RS's MR ignore matches 10pm to 6am. Why ignore those late night matches ? It cannot be because there are low volumes, because that is what we have on Sunday's anyway. If they need to take a 10pm cut off use the true prior 24 hours 10.pm to 9.59pm the following day. The reason I raise this is I am seeing borrowers going for higher rates after 10pm, probably because they want to see their loan authorised before they go to bed, i.e. it seems RS are ignoring matches at higher rates by ignoring 10pm to 6am matches (I am not bothered if this was deliberate or unintended, the fact is the prior 24 hours s/be 24 hours not 16 hours)
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Post by duncandive on Aug 12, 2015 14:04:38 GMT
I thought that getting 3.5% on my funds in the Monthly Market was Hopeful. When I checked in to see if it had gone, I saw the Market was at 4.4%. Wish I had been a little more greedy myself now
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Post by contangoandcash on Aug 12, 2015 15:19:15 GMT
The more I think about it, the more it like the idea of using a 7 day moving average (or just anything longer than the previous 10am to 6pm slot would be an improvement). It's so volatile as it is now.
If Kev is about, why do you use just the previous day's action to set the rate ? It's such a small sample. As an automated trader of other markets, I'd never use a sample this size to make decisions on a market with such coarse granularity... this is effectively what RS do with the funds of anyone using MR.. I know you guys have ambitions of being "the rate" / benchmark, you need stability for that. Part of alleviating the concerns about transparency is making the markets hard to manipulate - a 7 day average might help.
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arbster
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Post by arbster on Aug 12, 2015 16:01:09 GMT
More weirdness: Why would a genuine lender put £100k in at 3.0% when there's only £20k all the way to 4.0%?
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Post by contangoandcash on Aug 12, 2015 16:17:52 GMT
Yes.. and not just one offer, but 5 ! I guess we won't find out what the origin of these is, but it's these sorts of trades that look very manipulative. If they 'want on', just dime the 3.5% and offer 3.4% - you are front of queue. I can't honestly see £100k being so unintelligent...so if it isn't unintelligent then, the first thing I think of here is either RS has placed these trades themselves, or advised them to offer 3%... I shouldn't be thinking these things!
If folks are desperate then there really should be a feature along the lines of - "place order at front of queue" (which would put in the order at the first empty increment, if there's nothing empty, it lifts the other side of the spread at their highest price).
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teddy
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Post by teddy on Aug 12, 2015 16:33:56 GMT
I've had a suspicion for a few weeks now that RS are either:
Placing fake borrowing orders where there's no lender money in order to try and drag the average rate down.
Or
Placing large piecemeal amounts of institutional borrowing requests (which the borrower understands will be placed over the long term) at rates where there is no lender money, in order to drag down the average rate.
Utterly cynical, but I'm just calling it as I see it. To put it bluntly, I no longer trust Ratesetter.
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Post by yorkshireman on Aug 12, 2015 17:54:27 GMT
I've had a suspicion for a few weeks now that RS are either: Placing fake borrowing orders where there's no lender money in order to try and drag the average rate down. Or Placing large piecemeal amounts of institutional borrowing requests (which the borrower understands will be placed over the long term) at rates where there is no lender money, in order to drag down the average rate. Utterly cynical, but I'm just calling it as I see it. To put it bluntly, I no longer trust Ratesetter. The City Boys again.
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locutus
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Post by locutus on Aug 12, 2015 18:10:55 GMT
More weirdness: Why would a genuine lender put £100k in at 3.0% when there's only £20k all the way to 4.0%? I saw that too and thought it looked incredibly suspicious. It definitely lowers my trust in the platform which is a shame as I want it to succeed.
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Aug 12, 2015 19:00:15 GMT
I will certainly not use Market Rate. Before recent changes, Market Rate could be relied on to choose a rate close to the best substantial offers prevailing (ignoring the tiny outliers). By using "Your Rate" (which Kevin did not recommend) I could usually get 0.1-0.2% better by waiting until later in the day, even better if I waited until Thursday/Fridays. Today, Market rate has been dumped at 4.9% in 3 year despite the fact that there is only c£4500 on offer at 5.0 to 5.4%, and any person prepared to wait until later today would probably place money at 5.5% (which is what I would do, except that I have gone just a bit higher temporarily)...... .....Will we, in the next hour, see £150K of borrower "offers" appear at 4.8% (3r) or 5.1-5.2% (5yr) rather than matching real lender offers? (edit: yes, here they come, 4.6% and 5.3%!) Ah ... just woke up. My £800+ of repayments placed in 3 year at 5.8% has just been matched. Thank you RS. I'd've got 4.9% if you had your way. Also I left £90 in one month at 3.5% this morning (for safe keeping until decisions this evening), and it was matched during the early afternoon, I think, just before that massive £100K was offered at 3.0%. I'd've transfered that to 3yr 5.9% now...c'est la vie Mmm...think I'll nudge up my 3yr reinvestment rate to 5.9% in case tonight's payment run results in one of those "immediatematchfestes" in the middle of the night. Who wants to guess tomorrow's 3 yr MR? I guess 5.4%. Off to the wilds tomorrow, so I'll either do well for the next week, or get stranded way above match levels.
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jlend
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Post by jlend on Aug 12, 2015 19:23:53 GMT
I thought that getting 3.5% on my funds in the Monthly Market was Hopeful. When I checked in to see if it had gone, I saw the Market was at 4.4%. Wish I had been a little more greedy myself now I did get a little matched at 4.5% on the monthly market today as the rates went up.
May peak at over 4% again later?
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Post by westonkevRS on Aug 12, 2015 20:34:57 GMT
The more I think about it, the more it like the idea of using a 7 day moving average (or just anything longer than the previous 10am to 6pm slot would be an improvement). It's so volatile as it is now. If Kev is about, why do you use just the previous day's action to set the rate ? It's such a small sample. As an automated trader of other markets, I'd never use a sample this size to make decisions on a market with such coarse granularity... this is effectively what RS do with the funds of anyone using MR.. I know you guys have ambitions of being "the rate" / benchmark, you need stability for that. Part of alleviating the concerns about transparency is making the markets hard to manipulate - a 7 day average might help. I would have preferred a smaller sample, as then the MR would have been based on the most recent actual trade. However the volatility due to small volumes would have made this ridiculous. The last day (and it's actually 6am to 10pm) was chosen as more representative. Going back further would make the idea of the rates being the latest price an irrelevance. The logic is explained in the blog update: www.ratesetter.com/blog/article/the_way_we_calculate_the_market_rate_is_changingI think having the MR set on actual trades rather than offers was a good choice, and a lot more transparent and impossr to manipulate internally or externally. Someone on the forum proposed that excluding MR trades from the calculation would make it more based on actual decisions, which I think a good interesting idea. Although this on theory could force the rate down which le sets might not like... @ westonkevRS
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Aug 12, 2015 20:36:01 GMT
I will certainly not use Market Rate. Before recent changes, Market Rate could be relied on to choose a rate close to the best substantial offers prevailing (ignoring the tiny outliers). By using "Your Rate" (which Kevin did not recommend) I could usually get 0.1-0.2% better by waiting until later in the day, even better if I waited until Thursday/Fridays. Today, Market rate has been dumped at 4.9% in 3 year despite the fact that there is only c£4500 on offer at 5.0 to 5.4%, and any person prepared to wait until later today would probably place money at 5.5% (which is what I would do, except that I have gone just a bit higher temporarily)...... .....Will we, in the next hour, see £150K of borrower "offers" appear at 4.8% (3r) or 5.1-5.2% (5yr) rather than matching real lender offers? (edit: yes, here they come, 4.6% and 5.3%!) Mmm...think I'll nudge up my 3yr reinvestment rate to 5.9% Got a match at 5.9% in the 3 year market at 19:58. Hopefully rates are on the up again
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Post by westonkevRS on Aug 12, 2015 20:42:17 GMT
I've had a suspicion for a few weeks now that RS are either: Placing fake borrowing orders where there's no lender money in order to try and drag the average rate down. Or Placing large piecemeal amounts of institutional borrowing requests (which the borrower understands will be placed over the long term) at rates where there is no lender money, in order to drag down the average rate. Utterly cynical, but I'm just calling it as I see it. To put it bluntly, I no longer trust Ratesetter. Oh jeez, really? *places head in hands and weeps* Why would an institutional lender (who is 100% in it for the money) be willing to lend at a lower rate, and lower current and future returns. Ridiculous. It's the monthly market , people just want their money out the door and working quickly for shorter periods of time. Those people that don't trust RateSetter (and by extension, me) should not be lenders. And probably should thereafter have better things to do with their time that post on the RateSetter thread. @ westonkevRS
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Aug 12, 2015 22:22:08 GMT
I am finding RS much harder work since the algorithm was changed.
My experience at the moment is that money offered at 6.1% in the 5 year market will be lent out soon enough, which is OK by me, but it worries me that this is so very different from the rate which newbies are likely to get. I do think that the new algorithm has introduced much more volatility, which is not good for the platform in the longer terrm.
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Post by nickthefool on Aug 12, 2015 22:35:06 GMT
Maybe it's more volatile since the new algorithm only takes matched money into account, whereas the old one took offered money into account as well, so it's effectively decreased the volume?
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