webwiz
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Post by webwiz on Aug 20, 2015 12:09:45 GMT
This poll is a waste of time, who in their right mind would invest for less Anyone in their right mind who thinks that some money invested at 11% is better than no money invested at 12%.
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blata
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Post by blata on Aug 20, 2015 12:15:38 GMT
Must admit forgot about the ones who would invest for less while 12% is achievable, I agree if the rate decreases it would lead to another discussion
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Aug 20, 2015 12:19:00 GMT
This poll is a waste of time, who in their right mind would invest for less Anyone in their right mind who thinks that some money invested at 11% is better than no money invested at 12%. You can get 10-13% elsewhere on PBL's, so any drop and the mass exodus would begin.
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james
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Post by james on Aug 21, 2015 18:37:10 GMT
This poll is a waste of time, who in their right mind would invest for less I really am not interested in putting my money at risk for anything less than 12%. If the rate dropped I would pull my money out. Well, that's two "votes" demonstrating that a drop in rate would work to reduce demand. Given the proposal by SS on another thread,perhaps this daft poll can come to a natural conclusion? The email is about their new rationing system, which presupposes continued excess demand. This poll is about something else, what interest rate it would take to reduce demand to match supply. Anyone in their right mind who thinks that some money invested at 11% is better than no money invested at 12%. You can get 10-13% elsewhere on PBL's, so any drop and the mass exodus would begin. Well, to some degree, since there is value in both diversification and customer service. I haven't been having much trouble selling loans on a secondary market at 10-11% and there are still people who are willing to invest in unsecured lending with protection funds at less than 6% or secured at under 6%. That's the point of this poll, though, to get some idea of what rates people think it would take to cause enough money to go elsewhere to get demand and supply aligned. Personally I'm glad that they decided to go with a rationing system but then I'm not going to be in the heavily capped group of investors with lots of money.
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Post by zzr600 on Aug 21, 2015 18:53:19 GMT
12% or less may for some be attractive, but then many people seem to discount the effect of inflation. In reality, if one's other major expense is housing then 15% p.a. appreciation in housing costs in effect means a 3% annual devaluation in the buying power of your cash invested in SS.
Put another way, 12% invested in SS is the same as a 3% annual loss had you invested directly in property. At least a few on SS have deep pockets, meaning they could invest in property professionally if they wanted. I suspect many will just pull out their cash from SS should interest rates be reduced, me included.
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sam i am
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Post by sam i am on Aug 21, 2015 19:28:56 GMT
This thread has really been overtaken by events as SS have introduced pre-funding and stated quite clearly that there is no intention in the foreseeable future to change from a flat 12% interest rate (hurrah!). But I still can't resist having my say.
If SS were to reduce rates slightly say to 11% or 10% it would still be attractive to many and the simplicity of the site would still be a draw. So I suspect most loans would still fill OK. Maybe some of the larger ones might need a bit of help in the form of a launch cashback. Some of the bluster about not investing with SS anymore is more about scaring SS so that rates aren't lowered because none of us want to see that.
But it is true to say that lower rates would put off some because the reward would genuinely not be enough and also some investors would feel let down and no longer have loyalty to the site.
So if SS really wanted to reduce rates then the way to do it would be to offer a range of rates which better reflect the risk and demand for loans. This would be particularly appropriate as and when loans become placed in trust. Initially some rates may be higher than 12% (big risky loans) and some would be lower (small with low LTV). At outset the average interest rate may be 12% but over time it would be relatively easy to start sneaking the average rate lower without making it too obvious.
So if we do see a range of interest rates being introduced this is something to watch out for.
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james
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Post by james on Aug 21, 2015 19:47:10 GMT
Yes, it's good that SavingStream have decided to use capping and not for rate drops, at least for those who won't be capped. Still, it is interesting to get some idea of just how elastic the demand is with varying interest rates.
I've already been quite surprised by some of the comments and what they might imply about expectations of what rates can be achieved.
I don't agree that nobody wants to see lower rates, though. Two main cases where people may want that come to mind:
1. Lenders who will be capped, who might prefer lower rates that would increase the amount they can get lent at a still high rate.
2. Loans where it doesn't make sense for the borrower to pay the rate that is necessary to offer 12% to investors, so requiring 12% limits the loan volume available on the platform and makes supply/demand imbalances worse.
Number 2 is interesting in part because it in effect creates a market opportunity for other platforms to offer lower rates and get the money that can't be lent here by capped investors. still, at least for now, SavingStream appear to have decided not to place loans at les than 12% (and maybe also not above 12%). While places like say Ablrate have gone to 14% and to 10% in the not so distant future.
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sam i am
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Post by sam i am on Aug 21, 2015 20:09:01 GMT
Yes, it's good that SavingStream have decided to use capping and not for rate drops, at least for those who won't be capped. Still, it is interesting to get some idea of just how elastic the demand is with varying interest rates. I've already been quite surprised by some of the comments and what they might imply about expectations of what rates can be achieved. I don't agree that nobody wants to see lower rates, though. Two main cases where people may want that come to mind: 1. Lenders who will be capped, who might prefer lower rates that would increase the amount they can get lent at a still high rate. 2. Loans where it doesn't make sense for the borrower to pay the rate that is necessary to offer 12% to investors, so requiring 12% limits the loan volume available on the platform and makes supply/demand imbalances worse. Number 2 is interesting in part because it in effect creates a market opportunity for other platforms to offer lower rates and get the money that can't be lent here by capped investors. still, at least for now, SavingStream appear to have decided not to place loans at les than 12% (and maybe also not above 12%). While places like say Ablrate have gone to 14% and to 10% in the not so distant future. A good response to my unthinking comment 'nobody wants to see this...' While it doesn't invalidate my overall point it is a good reminder to consider all statements carefully.
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webwiz
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Post by webwiz on Aug 21, 2015 21:23:15 GMT
This is a question of basic economics. Price is the mechanism that the market uses to balance supply and demand. At the moment on SS supply exceeds demand by a large factor. Sooner or later rates will fall whether we like it or not. Nobody can buck the market for long. Of course some people will pull out if rates drop. that will balance demand. If SS do not reduce rates they will be undercut by someone else in the lending market who offers borrowers (and consequently lenders) lower rates. This will reduce both the quantity and quality of borrowers who go to SS when there are cheaper alternatives available.
You may not like it but that is life in a free market.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 21, 2015 23:02:09 GMT
This is a question of basic economics. Price is the mechanism that the market uses to balance supply and demand. At the moment on SS supply exceeds demand by a large factor. Sooner or later rates will fall whether we like it or not. Nobody can buck the market for long. Of course some people will pull out if rates drop. that will balance demand. If SS do not reduce rates they will be undercut by someone else in the lending market who offers borrowers (and consequently lenders) lower rates. This will reduce both the quantity and quality of borrowers who go to SS when there are cheaper alternatives available. You may not like it but that is life in a free market. Price is not the only mechanism involved in determining demand. To your "... free market." comment I can only suggest reading "23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism" by Ha-Joon Chang. I didn't agree with everything he had to say, but even the bits I didn't agree with made me stop and think.
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webwiz
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Post by webwiz on Aug 22, 2015 7:52:33 GMT
I think I will trust Adam Smith rather than Ha-Joon Chang.
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james
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Post by james on Aug 22, 2015 8:27:18 GMT
I think I will trust Adam Smith rather than Ha-Joon Chang. If you weren't already aware of his background, you may find it of use to read the article about Mr. Chang, a Korean Cambridge economics professor and fellow of the Center for Economic and Policy Research who's worked for the World bank, Asian Development Bank and European Investment Bank. Or perhaps watch the Google talk he gave. Or read his current summer column series in FT Weekend magazine. He's correct that we don't live in a purely capitalist society but instead have widespread government intervention. Of course this poll is fundamentally about somewhat classic supply and demand theory and the elasticity of demand... while SavingStream's actions is a non-classical rationing approach that they say is in part to help drive growth of the platform, a judgement that I'm pretty sure they are correct about.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Aug 22, 2015 9:24:31 GMT
Keynes? Austrian school? Corbyn economics?
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Post by reeknralf on Aug 22, 2015 15:46:49 GMT
Keynes? Austrian school? Corbyn economics? IME you'll reach a wider audience if you place question marks after questions.
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