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Post by GSV3MIaC on Oct 7, 2015 10:10:39 GMT
I'm still waiting for the deluge of new Es we were promised (IIRC). Or, indeed, anything offering a net rate higher than I can get elsewhere with little effort and less risk.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 7, 2015 10:12:07 GMT
If FC don't take advantage of their knowledge of a) upcoming deal flow, b) loan repayments, c) available funds for investment and d) fund flows they're being incredibly commercially stupid.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Oct 7, 2015 10:26:21 GMT
I'm still waiting for the deluge of new Es we were promised (IIRC). Or, indeed, anything offering a net rate higher than I can get elsewhere with little effort and less risk. Of the last 25 E-rate loans, 20 went to the WL market and just 5 were listed as PL. I can't see that trend reversing.
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arbster
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Post by arbster on Oct 7, 2015 10:34:47 GMT
I'm still waiting for the deluge of new Es we were promised (IIRC). Or, indeed, anything offering a net rate higher than I can get elsewhere with little effort and less risk. Of the last 25 E-rate loans, 20 went to the WL market and just 5 were listed as PL. I can't see that trend reversing. Allegedly the allocation of loans between WL and PL is entirely random and that randomness is a regulatory requirement. Perhaps we'll see the variance swing back our way in due course.
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blender
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Post by blender on Oct 7, 2015 10:35:05 GMT
It is a random process according to FC. That suggests that 80% of non-property loans are going as whole loans.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Oct 7, 2015 10:56:49 GMT
Febrile Convulsions are getting pretty bullish in trying to fill 16308 (£238k A) with no CB. It raced to 65% overnight, pretty much all Autobiddies as far as I can tell, but unsurprisingly has gone nowhere since. 16304 (£210k A) and 16302 / 16297 (both £156k A+) are in the same boat. Will be interesting to watch how these fare over the next 6 days... More money flowing into these now, and curiously (given they're over 65% filled) it all looks like Autobiddies again. In fact, now there are very few manual bids to cloud the picture, it's interesting to see that Autobid wakes up for 2 to 3 hours, then nods off again for 4 - 5 hours, before waking up again. I wonder how long it takes it to work through all of the possible "Investors" whose Autobid settings would permit a bid (several days maybe?). That said, I thought Autobid was limited to 65% of any single loan (unless that limitation has sneakily been lifted).
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arbster
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Post by arbster on Oct 7, 2015 11:26:50 GMT
Interestingly, over the past 6 months the ratio of PL/WL was 40%/60%, with a pretty even distribution across all risk bands (although E band loans are 50/50 over the whole period).
Over the past month, that ratio has been 27%/73%, again with broadly comparable distribution across all risk bands (27/73 for Es).
So, it definitely seems that there has been a massive increase in the amount of WL money available. I've not done the analysis on whether the total investment has increased over the period, but suspect it wouldn't be by such a significant amount.
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am
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Post by am on Oct 7, 2015 11:28:41 GMT
Febrile Convulsions are getting pretty bullish in trying to fill 16308 (£238k A) with no CB. It raced to 65% overnight, pretty much all Autobiddies as far as I can tell, but unsurprisingly has gone nowhere since. 16304 (£210k A) and 16302 / 16297 (both £156k A+) are in the same boat. Will be interesting to watch how these fare over the next 6 days... I was mildly tempted by the pitch to "bid" on 16308, but that was before I looked at the accounts, which I don't understand.
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blender
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Post by blender on Oct 7, 2015 12:47:03 GMT
It is a random process according to FC. That suggests that 80% of non-property loans are going as whole loans. Perhaps we shouldn't assume that random means an equal probability of a loan being offered as a PL or WL. Maybe False Connotations is assigning loans randomly as PL or WL but now in a 1:4 ratio. Was not assuming equally. The ratio of whole to full has always been set by FC and is not equal. The randomness is in which loan is chosen to be the next whole or partial loan. Property loans are excluded from whole loans and so for a 73/27 split between whole and partial, the business loans will have an even higher chance of going whole. I think FC are deliberately starving the partial board of SME loans at the moment. Probably trying to get us used to lower cash back on property.
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Oct 7, 2015 13:15:27 GMT
8% + 2% cashback over 18 mo just up (16332) is anyone wants any. And another, 16335
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arbster
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Post by arbster on Oct 7, 2015 13:15:47 GMT
Numbers for non-property loans below.  It seems that the A/A+ property loans that are only available as PLs might count against the allocation of A/A+ SME loans made available as PLs, but we get more than our fair share of Ds and Es, contrary to popular opinion. |
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Oct 7, 2015 13:19:58 GMT
8% + 2% cashback over 18 mo just up (16332) is anyone wants any A 1st tranche too. Guess the borrower wants the money quickly.
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Oct 7, 2015 13:22:34 GMT
...and here's interesting, property loan A+ at 9% +1% cashback.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Oct 7, 2015 13:31:02 GMT
Must have found a load of property loan applications had been used to wedge the wobbly leg of the ping-pong table. These aren't going to help yesterday's big CB-less As and A+s to fill though.
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arbster
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Post by arbster on Oct 7, 2015 14:42:00 GMT
Not terribly impressed with 16331 - a 7th tranche of the same 8% rate and 13mo duration as the previous two tranches but with only 1% cashback, and filling appropriately slowly. I guess we'll see whether other people pile in once the 2% CBs are full. Also don't much like the 74%/82% "options" on 16332, but I guess that explains the 2% CB on that one. It'll inevitably be filled by autobid and flippers, the latter of whom will then offload it at par to the remaining autobidders on the SM.
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