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Post by bonfemme on Nov 11, 2015 12:30:25 GMT
Steve59 has just thrown a load of money at the good-looking D (17227) which won't need any help getting over the line. Clearly, he's not a FC stooge then. Strange behaviour though. I can't see Steve59 in there. southseasteve's had a bit but currently dave 1 is gobbling loads of £20 parts. I thought I was going mad!! Or maybe looking at one of the repaid loans bids, but he is there.... bid numbers 1002 to about 1181 at least
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Post by aloanatlast on Nov 11, 2015 14:13:28 GMT
And now a titchy £90K A+ fails to fill and the FC bidding fingers are primed for action.
And again later. £13K short, less than 3 hours to go. Might have been a suitable case for cashback. But 59 has £7K already, so FC are hoping he'll take the spare £13K. This could develop into an unofficial underwriting arrangement.
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spyrogyra
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Post by spyrogyra on Nov 11, 2015 16:46:54 GMT
445 £20 FC Finance bids on 17060. Plus £18k needed in 8 minutes
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Nov 26, 2015 8:20:14 GMT
I've just had my first (highly experimental) SME cashback loan part sell on at par (16581). Seems unlikely to prove as worthwhile as flipping property loans, not least because I'm unwilling to stake anything like as much in any single loan. That said, the interest earned in the meantime is better (9.6% net vs 7% net) and there are no 2nd/3rd/nth tranches to divert future Autobiddies from buying. Any parts left as I approach my standard 6 month threshold will have to be dumped at whatever the market demands at the time; the obvious concern is this could entail a significant discount but nothing ventured ... That is good going considering there are over 100 parts on offer at a discount, I assumed that was why mine aren't shifting. My SME cashback flipping experiment has worked out pretty well, with my last 2 parts (of 20) in 16581 selling at par last night, a little over 1 month from launch. It's a 60 month B loan offered with 1%CB so the AER on my investment isn't too shoddy. The only problem is that I've seen almost no other B (or C) loans offered with CB since then, but I live in hope...
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blender
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Post by blender on Nov 26, 2015 9:45:31 GMT
That is good going considering there are over 100 parts on offer at a discount, I assumed that was why mine aren't shifting. My SME cashback flipping experiment has worked out pretty well, with my last 2 parts (of 20) in 16581 selling at par last night, a little over 1 month from launch. It's a 60 month B loan offered with 1%CB so the AER on my investment isn't too shoddy. The only problem is that I've seen almost no other B (or C) loans offered with CB since then, but I live in hope... That's not fair. I still have 10 of my 25 parts, a mix of £20 and £40. But the interest rate is decent and so I am happy enough and agree with Stevet.
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acky
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Post by acky on Nov 29, 2015 8:00:17 GMT
Following another poor Saturday for SM sales and nothing sold yet today, I have analysed my SM property sales at par since I started selling in August. The average sales for Saturday/Sunday have been only 52% of the average for a weekday, and for November this % is only 41%. If Autobodge was keeping Autobodgers' accounts fully funded, this is the reverse of what I would expect as there are no new loans coming to the PM on Saturdays and Sundays and therefore one would expect the incidence of accounts with cash that can't be spent on the PM to increase at the weekend and therefore SM sales to go up. I've checked my repayments/interest by weekday and there's no statistically meaningful variation between the weekdays (as one would expect given that repayments are tied to calendar months). I suppose it may be the fact that no new money is available because FC are not working at weekends to process deposits, but I feel suspicious that the money supply to the SM is being artificially throttled at weekends to leave more available for the PM come Monday. Or am I being paranoid?
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Post by goldservice on Nov 29, 2015 8:56:02 GMT
I have noticed that there are far fewer posts to this board at weekends. I suspect that Friendly Critters are deliberately doing less to annoy us on Sat and Sun - possibly by not playing ping pong - so that we have less to complain about. Or am I being paranoid?  |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2015 11:10:20 GMT
Following another poor Saturday for SM sales and nothing sold yet today, I have analysed my SM property sales at par since I started selling in August. The average sales for Saturday/Sunday have been only 52% of the average for a weekday, and for November this % is only 41%. If Autobodge was keeping Autobodgers' accounts fully funded, this is the reverse of what I would expect as there are no new loans coming to the PM on Saturdays and Sundays and therefore one would expect the incidence of accounts with cash that can't be spent on the PM to increase at the weekend and therefore SM sales to go up. I've checked my repayments/interest by weekday and there's no statistically meaningful variation between the weekdays (as one would expect given that repayments are tied to calendar months). I suppose it may be the fact that no new money is available because FC are not working at weekends to process deposits, but I feel suspicious that the money supply to the SM is being artificially throttled at weekends to leave more available for the PM come Monday. Or am I being paranoid? Do you have stats on your Property Loans weekly % sales? My sales are very very far from the percentages that FC boosted on one of their newsletters a month or two ago (if I remember correctly they were talking about 30% sales at par in a wekk). In the week 22-28 november I had 279 property loan parts listed at par on the SM (all 20£ and coming from many different loans, probably 18-20 of them). I only sold 14 parts on SM, which means 5% of them in a week. The performance in past week has been pretty similar. I wonder if these numbers match with your stats
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blender
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Post by blender on Nov 29, 2015 11:26:01 GMT
I think that the autobid lever is left hard over to the PM side over weekends to fill the property loans. It is now harder to distinguish autobid purchase from manual, since autobid will now buy at a discount. Of course FC is not in control of manual purchases. However, if we are speaking on the percentage of property parts listed at par and previously purchased with cash back, principally 8% parts, then expectations of selling 30% in a week are far too high. That would churn the whole holding in less than a month and would result in a phenomenal return from just cash back - and of course average cash back would be reduced. You cannot really expect much more than 5% a week at par for bulk property parts.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Nov 29, 2015 12:16:24 GMT
Following another poor Saturday for SM sales and nothing sold yet today, I have analysed my SM property sales at par since I started selling in August. The average sales for Saturday/Sunday have been only 52% of the average for a weekday, and for November this % is only 41%. If Autobodge was keeping Autobodgers' accounts fully funded, this is the reverse of what I would expect as there are no new loans coming to the PM on Saturdays and Sundays and therefore one would expect the incidence of accounts with cash that can't be spent on the PM to increase at the weekend and therefore SM sales to go up. I've checked my repayments/interest by weekday and there's no statistically meaningful variation between the weekdays (as one would expect given that repayments are tied to calendar months). I suppose it may be the fact that no new money is available because FC are not working at weekends to process deposits, but I feel suspicious that the money supply to the SM is being artificially throttled at weekends to leave more available for the PM come Monday. Or am I being paranoid? I don't think you are being paranoid, no, I think FC do indeed 'stockpile' autobodge money to spend Monday or later .. if they didn't autobodge would (assuming the repayment run happened overnight .. a big 'If') have nothing to bid any time on Monday (except for new chums). However there are a couple of other factors - a) probably no new chums joining up and turning autobodge on, over the weekend, b) no new loans, but plenty of old ones becoming more than 48 hours old and thus eligible for the '100% autobodged' treatment. I suppose you =could= try to eliminate 'new chum' autobidding from your stats by tossing away folks you have never heard of before, but you'd likely need a larger sample than you have. New chums are MUCH more likely to be buying 'property development in Little Widdlington 1-9' than anyone just recycling interest/capital repayments, because they definitely won't have any exposure to that company .. whereas anyone who has been around for a while probably already has some (roll out something OLD &/or Unique, and suddenly everyone will want a piece). As Blender says, 5%/week is probably not too bad .. I reckon a half-life of ~3 months, which implies something similar.
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acky
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Post by acky on Nov 29, 2015 12:38:12 GMT
Following another poor Saturday for SM sales and nothing sold yet today, I have analysed my SM property sales at par since I started selling in August. The average sales for Saturday/Sunday have been only 52% of the average for a weekday, and for November this % is only 41%. If Autobodge was keeping Autobodgers' accounts fully funded, this is the reverse of what I would expect as there are no new loans coming to the PM on Saturdays and Sundays and therefore one would expect the incidence of accounts with cash that can't be spent on the PM to increase at the weekend and therefore SM sales to go up. I've checked my repayments/interest by weekday and there's no statistically meaningful variation between the weekdays (as one would expect given that repayments are tied to calendar months). I suppose it may be the fact that no new money is available because FC are not working at weekends to process deposits, but I feel suspicious that the money supply to the SM is being artificially throttled at weekends to leave more available for the PM come Monday. Or am I being paranoid? Do you have stats on your Property Loans weekly % sales? My sales are very very far from the percentages that FC boosted on one of their newsletters a month or two ago (if I remember correctly they were talking about 30% sales at par in a wekk). In the week 22-28 november I had 279 property loan parts listed at par on the SM (all 20£ and coming from many different loans, probably 18-20 of them). I only sold 14 parts on SM, which means 5% of them in a week. The performance in past week has been pretty similar. I wonder if these numbers match with your stats Well of course it varies hugely depending on the loan (and in particular how many parts for that loan are on the SM), so I'm not sure averages are that meaningful. Overall I would say 5% is probably a reasonable rule of thumb, but I would expect to do rather better on some loans and struggle to achieve 5% on others. Overall I'm around 8% at the moment, but that's distorted because I was buying parts for six months before I realised Autobodge bought on the SM, so by the time I cottoned on to the opportunity, some of my loans were several months old and these shifted much quicker (sometimes all gone in a day or two) than more recent loans.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 29, 2015 14:35:55 GMT
I know I'm going to regret saying this, because every time I do, the AutoBodge fairy seems to take it personally, but... I've got 105 £20 8% cb-stripped A+ property parts listed on the SM at the mo.
28th - 3 sold
27th - 4 sold
26th - 2 sold
25th - 4 sold
24th - 1 sold
23rd - 1 sold
22nd - 2 sold
So that's 16 in a week, from 121 iisted - just over 13%.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2015 14:49:23 GMT
I think that the autobid lever is left hard over to the PM side over weekends to fill the property loans. It is now harder to distinguish autobid purchase from manual, since autobid will now buy at a discount. Of course FC is not in control of manual purchases. However, if we are speaking on the percentage of property parts listed at par and previously purchased with cash back, principally 8% parts, then expectations of selling 30% in a week are far too high. That would churn the whole holding in less than a month and would result in a phenomenal return from just cash back - and of course average cash back would be reduced. You cannot really expect much more than 5% a week at par for bulk property parts. Well, that's not me talking about 30% sales at par from Property loans on the Secondary Market, but FC. I contested that data as soon as it was published in october as it never matched my sales data. The graph talking about 30% sales at par (and looking at it it was even more, around 38%) is this: www.fundingcircle.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/property-LPs.jpg
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Post by davee39 on Nov 29, 2015 16:25:27 GMT
I read the graph as indicating that 30% of the LOANS ACTUALLY SOLD were at par, not 30% of loans for sale selling at par in a week.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Nov 29, 2015 16:25:46 GMT
The more recent "October round up of the marketplace" Blog post shows that particular week was anomalous, a one-week spike caused by the introduction of fixed rate auctions and the windows over which they must measure "SM part sales" and "SM part listings". I recall I kept a lot of my better rate property parts off the SM around that time, in anticipation of being able to sell them at a premium (rather than par) in the following weeks. I reckon I wasn't the only one.
The more recent graph shows more like 25% of property parts listed at par being sold. This is still a lot higher than my own weekly figure of around 5-6%. but I wonder if there might be a couple of explanations:
a) Most of the property parts I have listed at par on the SM are fairly recent loans, launched within the last 3 - 4 months, and I suspect this is the same for many active property loan flippers. This is because I've already sold pretty much all of my older loan parts. Also I only buy 2%CB loans (or very short term 1%CB loans) which are the loans that attract most other flippers too so there inevitably is a lot of competition to sell. But someone that decides to list, say, an 8 month old loan part originally sold with zero CB is likely to see it sell very quickly, since there will be very few other parts listed for sale. By definition, I'd expect the rate of sale of my (relatively new, 2%CB) property parts to be structurally lower than the average across the whole SM.
b) Fancy Computations' "Weekly average gross yield" graphs are based on 2 weeks rolling data. Daft though it sounds, I wonder if their SM sales graph might also (misleadingly) be showing a "2 weeks rolling" picture, given that loan parts stay on the SM for up to 14 days from listing. If, for example, their calculation was "Total parts sold over the last 2 weeks" divided by "Total parts newly listed over the last 2 weeks" then that would effectively be dividing 2 weeks of sales by 1 cycle of part listings. I can find no explanation of their calculation methodology, so this is pure supposition on my part!
[Or the graph could be showing the proportion of all loan parts listed on the SM that sell versus those that don't sell (ie. that time out after 14 days), which would give a similarly inflated picture of weekly sales rate, as well as explaining nicely that data spike in a week where a lot of unsold parts must have been delisted manually]
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