SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Sept 3, 2015 14:18:40 GMT
Well they do say that every cloud has a silver lining! Interestingly when I got my phone call on Tuesday I suggested that all the low value loans would be snapped up in minutes by Baz and the other bots, the guy I spoke to said that they would be 'asking them to stop being naughty' (my words not their's). Why would they want to snap up the low value loans? They've been trading on the difference between marginal and market rates - they won't be able to do that anymore. My prediction would be that they would restrict their activities to the property loans, where they can continue to trade on the cashback. They'll also continue to hoover up Es for as long as demand exceeds supply and they can sell them on at something less than Fixed Rate
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Post by nightmare on Sept 3, 2015 14:33:16 GMT
Well they do say that every cloud has a silver lining! Interestingly when I got my phone call on Tuesday I suggested that all the low value loans would be snapped up in minutes by Baz and the other bots, the guy I spoke to said that they would be 'asking them to stop being naughty' (my words not their's). Why would they want to snap up the low value loans? They've been trading on the difference between marginal and market rates - they won't be able to do that anymore. My prediction would be that they would restrict their activities to the property loans, where they can continue to trade on the cashback. It's a case of supply and demand. There are lots and lots of lenders who want to spread their loot across as many loans as they can, even in the current market loan values of £25k or less often end up at or very near to MBR (which are a fair bit below the new rates). Look at 15379 a £12k 48 month A+ which with over an hour to go the top bid is 7.2%. Under the new system this loan would be 8.3% so as it is clear that the 'market' values this sort of loan at closer to 7% the flippers would be virtually guaranteed an easy 1% mark up.
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TitoPuente
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Post by TitoPuente on Sept 3, 2015 14:56:34 GMT
Why would they want to snap up the low value loans? They've been trading on the difference between marginal and market rates - they won't be able to do that anymore. My prediction would be that they would restrict their activities to the property loans, where they can continue to trade on the cashback. It's a case of supply and demand. There are lots and lots of lenders who want to spread their loot across as many loans as they can, even in the current market loan values of £25k or less often end up at or very near to MBR (which are a fair bit below the new rates). Look at 15379 a £12k 48 month A+ which with over an hour to go the top bid is 7.2%. Under the new system this loan would be 8.3% so as it is clear that the 'market' values this sort of loan at closer to 7% the flippers would be virtually guaranteed an easy 1% mark up. Well, I would argue that the "market" that is valuing an unsecured loan at 7% level is largely autobodge in basic settings. But autobodge will not buy mark-ups.
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Post by nightmare on Sept 3, 2015 15:04:38 GMT
Perhaps you're right, we'll find out soon enough as I can't see FC doing a U turn.
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wysiati
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Post by wysiati on Sept 3, 2015 18:56:06 GMT
There will be a fair few that are well miffed. What we don't know is if HMRC has had a quiet word about the amount of nontaxable money he's making, bringing about the change a tack. It was him Mum, not me! <points finger accusingly> Quite a bit of the public squealing so far has, perhaps not surprisingly, been coming from some of the (smaller) players more reliant on parasite strategies as a % of overall returns; presumably they do not have as many options, e.g. underwriting on other platforms? The flipper formerly known as B*z (the original one, who I think is now 'the digger') put some stats on the old independent forum suggesting <20% of gross returns came from loan interest. If that was/is your model then it is more of a problem, otherwise it is manageable, particularly if the evidence of your portfolio management to date suggests you can potentially outperform the platform on loan losses. Will the cashback bonanza in property loans last? FC presumably hopes not, particularly having had to crank things back up from the lows earlier in the year. Expect publicity/education pieces on the merits of property backed lending given the apparent scope for more widespread adoption by the FC lender base. The proposed fixed rates for A+ SME loans in particular make the the rates on A+ property loans look anomalous and that may be the intention - to nudge investors towards loans which currently have the most trouble filling and which cost FC most in terms of cashback. If FC is successful in ultimately weaning itself off the reliance on cashback then that will be another leg gone for those who can't pick loans (FC's previously published data suggested that, collectively, we are not that good and certainly not as good as we seem to think).
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nick
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Post by nick on Sept 3, 2015 21:40:57 GMT
Why would they want to snap up the low value loans? They've been trading on the difference between marginal and market rates - they won't be able to do that anymore. My prediction would be that they would restrict their activities to the property loans, where they can continue to trade on the cashback. They'll also continue to hoover up Es for as long as demand exceeds supply and they can sell them on at something less than Fixed Rate I have been told by FC that there will be a significant increase in the supply of E loans in the coming months with initial supply purposely small as the new band was introduced. It was suggested that I could easily build-up a diversified portfolio of E loans going forward if I was seeking to maintain a high overall rate (great, but its a high risk adjusted rate I'm after not a high gross with a equal high default rate!!!). So I expect the current flipping in E's to dwindle as they open the floodgates. That leaves promotional cashback on property loans which I suspect will reduce and be withdrawn in time (ie when they are set-up for ISAs and when they launch their investment trust vehicle which was publicised in the FT recently). And before long they will have turned into a Zopa clone.......where's the fun in that!
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blender
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Post by blender on Sept 3, 2015 22:07:23 GMT
There will be a fair few that are well miffed. What we don't know is if HMRC has had a quiet word about the amount of nontaxable money he's making, bringing about the change a tack. It was him Mum, not me! <points finger accusingly> Quite a bit of the public squealing so far has, perhaps not surprisingly, been coming from some of the (smaller) players more reliant on parasite strategies as a % of overall returns; presumably they do not have as many options, e.g. underwriting on other platforms? The flipper formerly known as B*z (the original one, who I think is now 'the digger') put some stats on the old independent forum suggesting <20% of gross returns came from loan interest. If that was/is your model then it is more of a problem, otherwise it is manageable, particularly if the evidence of your portfolio management to date suggests you can potentially outperform the platform on loan losses. Will the cashback bonanza in property loans last? FC presumably hopes not, particularly having had to crank things back up from the lows earlier in the year. Expect publicity/education pieces on the merits of property backed lending given the apparent scope for more widespread adoption by the FC lender base. The proposed fixed rates for A+ SME loans in particular make the the rates on A+ property loans look anomalous and that may be the intention - to nudge investors towards loans which currently have the most trouble filling and which cost FC most in terms of cashback. If FC is successful in ultimately weaning itself off the reliance on cashback then that will be another leg gone for those who can't pick loans (FC's previously published data suggested that, collectively, we are not that good and certainly not as good as we seem to think). I tend to agree. I am not really qualified to like or dislike this change because I stopped buying (almost) the auction loans around a year ago and adopted a strategy of buying the secured property for cash back and interest, selling after a few months and not worrying about diversity. Since the SME loans get sold after 6 months or so, I do not have many left and so the change does not affect me directly. But ancient posts will show that I thought it inevitable that FC would stop auctions for many reasons - those few people participating are the knowledgeable early adopters and not the target market of consumer lenders and institutions, the auctions leave rates too variable whereas FC would prefer to control rates for the commercial optimum, and of course the platform was just too complicated and could not be scaled up. Many lenders here are, quite reasonably, considering this as a change which has unwelcome personal consequences. But looked at from the point of view of FC and the interests of the majority of (silent) borrowers and lenders, the answer to the question of rate setting for the mature and growing business must be fixed rates? Why retain auctions? There will still be opportunities, but perhaps different ones. Many of us are rather like small underwriters who will, for a consideration of some sort for the effort and the risk of low diversity, take on the loans which FC's system cannot fill. With fixed rates there should be more of these rather than fewer, and assuming that FC will not relax Autobid diversity for property loans, the property loans will still need promotions and may even present good holdings to term. FC's 1% is now the larger part of the income stream and so the fee can often be traded off in the interests of growing the loan book and shareholder value. However, the reduction of the SME rates will drive more lenders to property, if not off the platform, and FC presumably hope that the SME flippers will move to property and their better returns. This change was inevitable. When dunmoaning we must look for new opportunities either on FC or on other platforms. Edit: Did not see Nick's post. I agree that the ISA and the investment trust could affect property - especially if there is a property investment trust which takes a percentage of every property loan.
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fasty
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Post by fasty on Sept 4, 2015 9:54:30 GMT
I was pleasantly surprised to discover that loan parts are still gradually selling at par on the SM at rates below the new fixed rates. It seems to be a good time to do a spring clean.
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Post by ogwellian on Sept 4, 2015 11:16:51 GMT
I was pleasantly surprised to discover that loan parts are still gradually selling at par on the SM at rates below the new fixed rates. It seems to be a good time to do a spring clean. Had a spring clean last night, found 48 parts below new rates, put them on at par and now only twelve remaining. Been through the current loan requests and only a few have rates available above the new rates. Cost of borrowing going up at FC?
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Post by nickthefool on Sept 4, 2015 11:20:49 GMT
Been through the current loan requests and only a few have rates available above the new rates. There were a few on Wednesday I think it was, but none today or yesterday.
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blender
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Post by blender on Sept 4, 2015 11:27:20 GMT
I was pleasantly surprised to discover that loan parts are still gradually selling at par on the SM at rates below the new fixed rates. It seems to be a good time to do a spring clean. Yes, I sold 56 property loan parts at par yesterday - which is really exceptional, and not all to Autobidders. But I do list A up to 10% and A+ up to 9% at par, and so much of it was above the new rates.
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TitoPuente
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Post by TitoPuente on Sept 4, 2015 12:16:20 GMT
As of today we have yet to see the first one of the new breed of fixed rate loans been put on the market. Let's bet how long it takes for Frozen Cortex to start tweaking the published fixed rates. There is a gap between C and D that is hardly explained by risk difference.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Sept 4, 2015 12:59:01 GMT
I'm still amazed that Floating Criteria have not managed to invent an AA+++ rating band for secured property loans, and bomb the rates further. Right now they are pricing them (10% fixed, for instance) somewhere around A--- .. maybe they know more about the upcoming property crash than they are letting on?
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am
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Post by am on Sept 4, 2015 13:11:39 GMT
I'm still amazed that Floating Criteria have not managed to invent an AA+++ rating band for secured property loans, and bomb the rates further. Right now they are pricing them (10% fixed, for instance) somewhere around A--- .. maybe they know more about the upcoming property crash than they are letting on? FC have trained us to diversify, with the result that they don't have the right mix of investors to fill the property loans without the carrot of higher rates than available on the SME loans. We might have to worry about rates on property loans in 12 months time when they have 100,000 lenders.
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blender
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Post by blender on Sept 4, 2015 14:00:39 GMT
I'm still amazed that Floating Criteria have not managed to invent an AA+++ rating band for secured property loans, and bomb the rates further. Right now they are pricing them (10% fixed, for instance) somewhere around A--- .. maybe they know more about the upcoming property crash than they are letting on? FC have trained us to diversify, with the result that they don't have the right mix of investors to fill the property loans without the carrot of higher rates than available on the SME loans. We might have to worry about rates on property loans in 12 months time when they have 100,000 lenders. Spot on am, or should it be pm now. They are stuck with the mismatch between the property loans and the original SME loan platform/Autobid. They will have to keep offering better deals on property for diversity criminals for some time to come. And they can afford to give away the fees on property until the SME loan book growth picks up. A year may be about right. Best not to purchase on the PM for less that 10% annualised return before fees for A+ property loans (including cash back).
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