|
|
Post by GSV3MIaC on Feb 29, 2016 11:55:28 GMT
Thanks for the info those who replied .. we now know the steps are £100 to 1k, £500 to £10k, and then £5k as fr as anyone has cared to go. I tossed those into the modelling algorithm and got the following out .. constraints are the average and total number of investors had to match reality, and there had to be enough skew to give the number of £x00 investors which are needed to get the sort of distributions we have seen on the sub-£1m loans (when 'everyone got £730', that was only possible if a good few folks wanted less). Oh, and it has to more-or-less obey the 80/20 (pareto) distribution. There are still plenty of possible scenarios which fit, but this is a typical one .. I arbitrarily decided nobody would punt more that £500k on any one loan (feel free to PM me if you do/did).  |
|
cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
Posts: 2,853 
Likes: 4,298
|
Post by cooling_dude on Feb 29, 2016 17:20:45 GMT
Thanks for the info those who replied .. we now know the steps are £100 to 1k, £500 to £10k, and then £5k as fr as anyone has cared to go. I tossed those into the modelling algorithm and got the following out .. constraints are the average and total number of investors had to match reality, and there had to be enough skew to give the number of £x00 investors which are needed to get the sort of distributions we have seen on the sub-£1m loans (when 'everyone got £730', that was only possible if a good few folks wanted less). Oh, and it has to more-or-less obey the 80/20 (pareto) distribution. There are still plenty of possible scenarios which fit, but this is a typical one .. I arbitrarily decided nobody would punt more that £500k on any one loan (feel free to PM me if you do/did). I'll just go and get my reading glasses ........  Yep, can't understand any of that   However; hands up anybody who thinks GSV3MIaC should be hired by SS and put in charge of the pre-funding allocation
|
|
webwiz
Posts: 1,133
Likes: 210
|
Post by webwiz on Feb 29, 2016 17:36:56 GMT
I think they already tweaked by limiting prefunding based on your account size, or 10k if larger, but minnows still need to game to avoid getting £45 when they wanted £100, or else play on the SM. Only 'no gaming' option I can think of which has not already been mooted is to use some lottery approach instead (hire ERNIE) .. basically you have a chance (roll a random number) of getting what you asked for .. select any one bidder, give them what they requested. Deduct from total, repeat (eliminating all bidders who could no longer be satisfied, because there is no enough left), repeat until nothing left. Mr 'I want it all' has about a 1/1600 chance of getting lucky (if they miss on round 1 they are out). Ms 'I just want £100 gov' would be in every selection round until the last, or until they got it. Nobody gets less than they asked for, unless 'less' is zero. Asking for too much just reduces your chance of getting any (and if you do get any, you'll get all of the too much). Ok Ok, enough blue sky already. 8>. p.s.in the interests of better modelling, can anyone tell me what the pre-fund steps are when you get past £100k, and whether there is actually a limit at £250k of prefund or if you can go higher if your portfolio is larger than that? (PM me if you don't want to publish!)( savingstream would presumably know?) Interesting idea but maybe it needs a bit more work. Would you really toss out a lender with nothing who wanted £20K and there was only £19,999 left for allocation, and give it all to the next guy who asked for exactly that amount?
|
|
am
Posts: 1,495
Likes: 601
|
Post by am on Feb 29, 2016 17:50:01 GMT
As I understand the problem with filling loans bottom up is that the "big hitters" get frustrated, but they are essential to SS. The problem with not filling loans bottom up is that it results in gaming (especially when combined with INPL) and the risk of problems if the liquidity of the secondary market dried up. If a sufficient deal flow can be achieved either strategy would work adequately. But to throw another idea into the mix, loans could be filled bottom up, but with different minimum bids, with the effect of reserving certain loans (those with large minimum bids) for the big hitters. (Compare FC's WL and PL markets.)
|
|
cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
Posts: 2,853
Likes: 4,298
|
Post by cooling_dude on Feb 29, 2016 18:01:00 GMT
As I understand the problem with filling loans bottom up is that the "big hitters" get frustrated, but they are essential to SS. The problem with not filling loans bottom up is that it results in gaming (especially when combined with INPL) and the risk of problems if the liquidity of the secondary market dried up. If a sufficient deal flow can be achieved either strategy would work adequately. But to throw another idea into the mix, loans could be filled bottom up, but with different minimum bids, with the effect of reserving certain loans (those with large minimum bids) for the big hitters. (Compare FC's WL and PL markets.) The problem is that as things stand the BH have such a big impact on pre-funding when gaming, simply because their allowable amount is so much higher. Furthermore, the SM is so liquid at the moment, any overspend from pre-funding can easily be put onto the SM, with the (current) knowledge that it will sell. At the end of the day (pre-funding day to be exact) us normal folk get a tad annoyed because we then see the overspend put back onto SM in large lumps, which then is just fastest finger first. Bottoms up eliminates the above scenario, but then risks upsetting the BH, because they would be unable to invest the larger amounts they have at hand. Personally, I believe that if you eliminate gaming the current allocation methods would be fine. How do we eliminate gaming.... well that just opens up another can of worms! So maybe a compromise with the allocation, that won't upset the BH is required.
|
|
|
|
Post by GSV3MIaC on Mar 7, 2016 21:31:56 GMT
An aside, and possibly an unintended bug, but if you ask for 'my loan parts' without logging in, you can get a list of ALL the loan parts in a loan, which tells us that the biggest BH on PBL084 is still sitting on £168k issued at the start (so my guess of max BH being around £200k wasn't far off). You can explore other loans too .. just go to savingstream.co.uk/_fragments/Loan/UserLoanParts?loan=182&view=live (replace 182 with the relevant loan number). No names, no packdrill, so you can't see who owns what, and 'churn' is invisible too (although I suspect asking for 'sold' instead of 'live' might give you another data mountain to crunch... oh yes, it does) savingstream .. feature or bug? |
|
cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
Posts: 2,853
Likes: 4,298
|
Post by cooling_dude on Mar 7, 2016 21:35:48 GMT
An aside, and possibly an unintended bug, but if you ask for 'my loan parts' without logging in, you can get a list of ALL the loan parts in a loan, which tells us that the biggest BH on PBL084 is still sitting on £168k issued at the start (so my guess of max BH being around £200k wasn't far off). You can explore other loans too .. just go to savingstream.co.uk/_fragments/Loan/UserLoanParts?loan=182&view=live (replace 182 with the relevant loan number). No names, no packdrill, so you can't see who owns what, and 'churn' is invisible too (although I suspect asking for 'sold' instead of 'live' might give you another data mountain to crunch... oh yes, it does) savingstream .. feature or bug? Wow If you ask me; that's a pretty big bug.
|
|
webwiz
Posts: 1,133
Likes: 210
|
Post by webwiz on Mar 7, 2016 21:51:53 GMT
An aside, and possibly an unintended bug, but if you ask for 'my loan parts' without logging in, you can get a list of ALL the loan parts in a loan, which tells us that the biggest BH on PBL084 is still sitting on £168k issued at the start (so my guess of max BH being around £200k wasn't far off). You can explore other loans too .. just go to savingstream.co.uk/_fragments/Loan/UserLoanParts?loan=182&view=live (replace 182 with the relevant loan number). No names, no packdrill, so you can't see who owns what, and 'churn' is invisible too (although I suspect asking for 'sold' instead of 'live' might give you another data mountain to crunch... oh yes, it does) savingstream .. feature or bug? How do you get to My Loans without logging in? I tried copying the URL whilst logged in and then logging out and pasting the copied URL but that did not work.
|
|
cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
Posts: 2,853
Likes: 4,298
|
Post by cooling_dude on Mar 7, 2016 21:53:27 GMT
An aside, and possibly an unintended bug, but if you ask for 'my loan parts' without logging in, you can get a list of ALL the loan parts in a loan, which tells us that the biggest BH on PBL084 is still sitting on £168k issued at the start (so my guess of max BH being around £200k wasn't far off). You can explore other loans too .. just go to savingstream.co.uk/_fragments/Loan/UserLoanParts?loan=182&view=live (replace 182 with the relevant loan number). No names, no packdrill, so you can't see who owns what, and 'churn' is invisible too (although I suspect asking for 'sold' instead of 'live' might give you another data mountain to crunch... oh yes, it does) savingstream .. feature or bug? How do you get to My Loans without logging in? I tried copying the URL whilst logged in and then logging out and pasting the copied URL but that did not work. Logout, Then click on the link.....
|
|
webwiz
Posts: 1,133
Likes: 210
|
Post by webwiz on Mar 7, 2016 21:56:05 GMT
How do you get to My Loans without logging in? I tried copying the URL whilst logged in and then logging out and pasting the copied URL but that did not work. Logout, Then click on the link..... When I log out it goes back to the home page with no links except log-in.
|
|
cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
Posts: 2,853
Likes: 4,298
|
Post by cooling_dude on Mar 7, 2016 21:57:53 GMT
Logout, Then click on the link..... When I log out it goes back to the home page with no links except log-in. You don't have to do anything on the SS website; just make sure you are logged out, and click the link in GSV3MIaC post. Your will see a list of investments in that loan, by individual investors
|
|
webwiz
Posts: 1,133
Likes: 210
|
Post by webwiz on Mar 7, 2016 22:04:27 GMT
When I log out it goes back to the home page with no links except log-in. You don't have to do anything on the SS website; just make sure you are logged out, and click the link in GSV3MIaC post. Your will see a list of investments in that loan, by individual investors Yes but how did GSV3MIaC get to that page in the first place? I assume he navigated there using links rather than hacking. And how do we know that loan 182 is PBL084? edit: I can see that it is indeed PBL084 because the figures are mostly 98.2% of a round sum. edit2: But loan 181 appears to be PBL081 (44.7%) so what happened to PBL082? edit3; It's loan 174
|
|
goopy
Member of DD Central
Posts: 307
Likes: 144
|
Post by goopy on Mar 7, 2016 22:13:05 GMT
You don't have to do anything on the SS website; just make sure you are logged out, and click the link in GSV3MIaC post. Your will see a list of investments in that loan, by individual investors Yes but how did GSV3MIaC get to that page in the first place? I assume he navigated there using links rather than hacking. And how do we know that loan 182 is PBL084? If you follow the link when you are logged in, then click on sell loan part, it takes you to PBL 84. Don't know where 182 comes from though?
|
|
|
|
Post by GSV3MIaC on Mar 7, 2016 22:13:48 GMT
I watched the web traffic when I asked for my list of loans and parts, just as I watch a lot of web traffic to make sure I know what is being sent to me from where .. I have an aversion to being served bits of dud javascript by dodgy sites.
You can see the loan numbers from any of the pages which reference them, just hover over the links on live loans, or even pipeline loans.
Whether you should be able to see all the loan parts I don't know - SS does cheerfully show you the last dozen or so transactions, with ***'d user names, this just shows you a lot more transactions with no names at all.
Go to live loans - hover over the picture or the blue text, see what the link says (shown, at least in Ffox, bottom left) .. the loan number is the last (digits) section. This is a unique number that appears at pipeline stage and never changes, even if the loan name / PBL number flops about.
|
|
goopy
Member of DD Central
Posts: 307
Likes: 144
|
Post by goopy on Mar 7, 2016 22:16:31 GMT
I watched the web traffic when I asked for my list of loans and parts, just as I watch a lot of web traffic to make sure I know what is being sent to me from where .. I have an aversion to being served bits of dud javascript by dodgy sites. You can see the loan numbers from any of the pages which reference them, just hover over the links on live loans, or even pipeline loans. Whether you should be able to see all the loan parts I don't know - SS does cheerfully show you the last dozen or so transactions, with ***'d user names, this just shows you a lot more transactions with no names at all. So that's where it comes from... 
|
|
