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Post by pepperpot on Feb 1, 2016 18:21:10 GMT
1) ..... and then assumed by the last lender to withdraw...... Hi chris , I don't understand that bit, please could you expand on it / explain it? Thanks, RM Last one in there would be holding the baby, I presume. I doubt it would get to that unless everyone made withdrawals quickly enough to compromise the " We do have the technical capability to freeze withdrawals if there's a major event" solution that AC have up their sleeves.
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Post by chris on Feb 1, 2016 19:08:34 GMT
1) ..... and then assumed by the last lender to withdraw...... Hi chris , I don't understand that bit, please could you expand on it / explain it? Thanks, RM If the QAA had £10m of investment, £5m of which was cash, had defaults totaling £500k, and the provision fund only covered £400k of that then if there was a run on the account: Lenders could immediately withdraw the £5m held in cash, the £4.5m held in loans as fast as it could be sold, and the £400k from the provision fund on a first come first served basis. Those lenders who were slowest to put in their withdraw request would then be left unable to withdraw that final £100k unless AC stepped in or the funds were recovered from the security held. Those are made up figures to illustrate the point and AC have the technical capability to freeze withdrawals at any time if such a run were to ever take place.
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Post by chris on Feb 1, 2016 19:10:27 GMT
Hi chris , I don't understand that bit, please could you expand on it / explain it? Thanks, RM Last one in there would be holding the baby, I presume. I doubt it would get to that unless everyone made withdrawals quickly enough to compromise the " We do have the technical capability to freeze withdrawals if there's a major event" solution that AC have up their sleeves. If somehow that did happen we'd still have the option to reverse the transactions until the funds were physically withdrawn and paid by the bank.
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Post by chris on Feb 1, 2016 19:12:57 GMT
It was most likely not only authorised by AC but also a press release/advert paid by AC, else the Daily Mail wouldn't talk about a single P2P platform... The DM has a track record of disguising adverts as articles (without mentioning so). As far as I'm aware it was just a free bit of pr for us after the story was picked up by the journalist. Please refrain from spreading innuendo and rumour based on personal prejudice.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 1, 2016 19:18:07 GMT
Hi chris , I don't understand that bit, please could you expand on it / explain it? Thanks, RM If the QAA had £10m of investment, £5m of which was cash, had defaults totaling £500k, and the provision fund only covered £400k of that then if there was a run on the account: Lenders could immediately withdraw the £5m held in cash, the £4.5m held in loans as fast as it could be sold, and the £400k from the provision fund on a first come first served basis. Those lenders who were slowest to put in their withdraw request would then be left unable to withdraw that final £100k unless AC stepped in or the funds were recovered from the security held. Those are made up figures to illustrate the point and AC have the technical capability to freeze withdrawals at any time if such a run were to ever take place. Thank you. I didn't realise that it was in the context of a "run".
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Post by chris on Feb 2, 2016 10:53:26 GMT
How does paying provision fund funds only to those quickest to withdraw instead of sharing it between all affected fit with "Fairer Growth Together" I wonder? I'd imagine there would be (strident) disappointment for some during such an event. Also, I know that the QAA is a cunning secret device that we are not permitted to know or understand but is there any oversight of it to ensure it is controlled in the best interests of lenders (since they are the buyers of QAA) ? If AC were asked to show the workings and day to day operations of the QAA to the regulator, can I assume that AC are confident that the regulator would find the QAA to working correctly? In answer to your first point it's because the account is optimised around liquidity, and in the event of such a run occurring I doubt any solution is going to make lenders sing and dance in praise of the "fairer growth together". In my example 99% of all cash in the account would need to have been withdrawn with no replacement for this issue to present itself. Whether it's 80%, 90%, 95%, or 99% ends up being neither here nor there in the context of such a collapse in confidence in the account. The FCA oversee what the QAA does in that it has to comply to their regulations. As we go through the full regulatory process I expect to have to explain its workings in detail to them. Day to day it is overseen by the board of directors, with our operations director in direct control of its workings.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Feb 2, 2016 12:44:24 GMT
In my example 99% of all cash in the account would need to have been withdrawn with no replacement for this issue to present itself. Actually, in your example, the issue presents itself soon after 50%, as that's the point where there's no guarantee of liquidity (the QAA must sell loans, and the market may not be as liquid at that time as it has been during the time the QAA has been active to date). The first 50% to demand their funds get paid immediately and in full, the rest are effectively told they'll have to wait until the QAA can sell its loans. [Edit: ... which will lead to an increase in requests to liquidate, as those who were holding funds in the QAA on the expectation that they could be liquidated instantly reverse their decision and decide to hold it in cash instead, the classic "run on the bank" scenario] In present market conditions, liquidity is instantly available for almost any loan, so the QAA would have no trouble liquidating 99% almost straight away, presumably in the manner you illustrate. However, a liquidity crisis would occur at a point when almost all investors participating in the other accounts are already fully invested. Whilst I realise it's hard to imagine AC increasing deal flow to the point where investor demand for loan units is saturated, it's occurred previously on other platforms, where cashback incentives have become necessary to get new loans away, and sometimes even those aren't enough. In such market conditions, it's likely that most existing loans will already be widely available on the SM, so there'd be virtually no demand for the QAA to sell into.
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Post by chris on Feb 2, 2016 13:14:18 GMT
In my example 99% of all cash in the account would need to have been withdrawn with no replacement for this issue to present itself. Actually, in your example, the issue presents itself soon after 50%, as that's the point where there's no guarantee of liquidity (the QAA must sell loans, and the market may not be as liquid at that time as it has been during the time the QAA has been active to date). The first 50% to demand their funds get paid immediately and in full, the rest are effectively told they'll have to wait until the QAA can sell its loans. [Edit: ... which will lead to an increase in requests to liquidate, as those who were holding funds in the QAA on the expectation that they could be liquidated instantly reverse their decision and decide to hold it in cash instead, the classic "run on the bank" scenario] In present market conditions, liquidity is instantly available for almost any loan, so the QAA would have no trouble liquidating 99% almost straight away, presumably in the manner you illustrate. However, a liquidity crisis would occur at a point when almost all investors participating in the other accounts are already fully invested. Whilst I realise it's hard to imagine AC increasing deal flow to the point where investor demand for loan units is saturated, it's occurred previously on other platforms, where cashback incentives have become necessary to get new loans away, and sometimes even those aren't enough. In such market conditions, it's likely that most existing loans will already be widely available on the SM, so there'd be virtually no demand for the QAA to sell into. Naturally that's a possibility. We don't hold 100% cash so the market will dictate liquidity in the event of a lot of people withdrawing a lot of cash. However even in that scenario the account would still be more liquid than any of the other accounts and gets priority when selling. Where it holds loans that the GBBA / GEIA would want to invest in to then any account growth will increase demand for those loans and we have the option (not currently implemented) to prioritise that inbound investment into buying loan units from the QAA. There are a lot of levers and tools we can use to keep the account liquid, however there are no guarantees.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 2, 2016 14:09:32 GMT
I wonder how much of the QAA total is money waiting to be invested in other AC accounts, and how much is "just sitting there for the 3.75%"?
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Post by chris on Feb 2, 2016 15:07:32 GMT
I wonder how much of the QAA total is money waiting to be invested in other AC accounts, and how much is "just sitting there for the 3.75%"? The majority is direct investment. Swept investment is down to about 25% of the total funds and the long term trend is for it to be a smaller percentage as the direct investment continues to come on to the site.
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bg
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Post by bg on Feb 17, 2016 21:09:38 GMT
So I see Zopa are bringing out a (presumably) equivalent "easy access" account on 1 March paying 3-4%. I wonder how much money will leave AC for that (presumably a fair bit if the rate is >=3.75%)....will it impact AC's ability to underwrite loans?
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jonah
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Post by jonah on Feb 23, 2016 20:29:38 GMT
Puzzled... The QAA PF was at 1 or 1.1% over the weekend. The total in the QAA is down from then but the PF is down to 0.7%. Surely a slightly smaller QAA should have a higher percentage if the total of the PF is consistent.
im taking numbers from memory, so happy to be corrected, but that drop seems sizeable.
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Post by chris on Feb 23, 2016 21:38:08 GMT
Puzzled... The QAA PF was at 1 or 1.1% over the weekend. The total in the QAA is down from then but the PF is down to 0.7%. Surely a slightly smaller QAA should have a higher percentage if the total of the PF is consistent. im taking numbers from memory, so happy to be corrected, but that drop seems sizeable. It's based on the amount actually lent out and held in loan units, which has risen a bit from the long term trend with the drawdown of #227, rather than the absolute amount invested in the account. No point the provision fund covering the cash portion of the account. The interest from loans like #227 will fall due soon which will help boost that percentage back up, plus the account is almost always selling down existing positions in loans which again helps the ratio.
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jonah
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Post by jonah on Feb 23, 2016 21:48:17 GMT
Puzzled... The QAA PF was at 1 or 1.1% over the weekend. The total in the QAA is down from then but the PF is down to 0.7%. Surely a slightly smaller QAA should have a higher percentage if the total of the PF is consistent. im taking numbers from memory, so happy to be corrected, but that drop seems sizeable. It's based on the amount actually lent out and held in loan units, which has risen a bit from the long term trend with the drawdown of #227, rather than the absolute amount invested in the account. No point the provision fund covering the cash portion of the account. The interest from loans like #227 will fall due soon which will help boost that percentage back up, plus the account is almost always selling down existing positions in loans which again helps the ratio. That makes sense. I hadn't considered the cash element. As you say, having some at 12% should help bolster the coffers. I think I have read on another thread about planned transparency on size of funds, location etc and this one feels like there is room to improve on that front. That said, thanks for the clarity on this part.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Mar 21, 2016 15:04:29 GMT
QAA is currently down to about £8.05m when I thought it was up around £8.3m over the weekend (but I may be wrong). There are now 63 live loans with units available, including some loans I've never seen available since draw-down. This morning's marketing email promoting the QAA set me wondering whether some of the increased aftermarket availability is the QAA attempting to sell down its holdings, especially in some of the more recent launches where liquidity might previously have been expected to be high (seems to be more of #244 available every time I look). I've next to nothing on the QAA myself ATM, but I wonder if current conditions are putting any pressure on its liquidity. That said, average withdrawal time is still 0 seconds. chris, does the QAA always jump the selling queue over MLIA and GBBA holders, or is the selling algorithm just weighted in its favour?
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