pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Sept 17, 2015 22:47:13 GMT
Surely that 25 number must assume an age at which retirement occurs. If someone waits until they are 90 to retire then I doubt that they'd be likely to need anything like that high a factor. If you can earn inflation after tax on your portfolio then 4% linked to inflation should last you 25 years which should (on average) be enough if you retire at 60. If you are worried about living longer you should withdraw less, or retire later. Whether you can earn inflation after tax on your portfolio in old age is another matter. I'd hope to beat that now, but when I'm 80?? Who knows how many marbles I will still have. Fortunately I have a pension as well so I don't need to take out 4%.
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11025
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Post by 11025 on Sept 18, 2015 7:23:38 GMT
I'm only recently turned 34 but would hope to have the choice to work or not by 50. I don't earn huge amounts but do save about 40% of my wages while still having a fairly active social life. If I was no longer working and living off investments, I would describe myself as retired. The unofficial rule is that you need 25 times your annual spend in savings. That way you can pull out 4% each year and if history repeats itself you will not dip into your capital. You may find you actually add to capital in boom years. Would be interested to know (if I'm not being too nosey) if the ones that say they are living off savings.. Well if they had 25 times expenditure before they pulled the plug on working life? I don't by any means class myself as retired , because I don't just lump my capital into an account and take what interest rate is on offer. I spread it carefully and pay continual attention to where it goes and what it is doing.
It depends on what category you put your money in , I have dedicated pension pots and isas set up many years ago , I also have working capital which goes towards my monthly or yearly income.
So is this 25 x figure based on pure savings or total wealth ? I don't know how applicable this is generically due to the many variables involved - after years of being self employed my financial outlook and behaviour is going to be very different from someone who has just left a cushy 9-5 job . If I could have only relied on 4% pa I would not have started down this road ...
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Post by brokenbiscuits on Sept 18, 2015 8:49:33 GMT
There is no right answer to what you would consider your job title to be. Whatever you are comfortable with.
As for the 4% swr. My understanding is this is based on stock market returns. Being here, in this forum, suggests you are open to other types of investments that, to date, have not correlated with stock market trends.
My p2p money is certainly fairing better than my isa this year.
If the slow and steady fixed rate return type p2p exist when I'm considering retirement ( your ratesetters and zopas) then periods when the market drops could be managed with less hassle than for previous generations without these types of options.
You would usually be required to have a large cash holding, earning next to nothing, to ride out any "crashes" in the market when on drawdown. Now with, say, ratesetter you can access about a quarter of your cash in the five year market over any year period. Your cash holding therefore does not need to be so great and so returns should be at a more considerable level year after year.
I am personally aiming for 25 times my predicted spending habits. No doubt the fear will kick in when I get nearer and I will up the number again.
I'm currently reading Martin Ford's The rise of the robots. Worth a read. Its about autonomy/ A.I replacing the human workforce over the next few decades.
No one can predict the future. Circumstances. Expected rates of return can all change.
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11025
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Post by 11025 on Sept 18, 2015 9:08:35 GMT
There is no right answer to what you would consider your job title to be. Whatever you are comfortable with. As for the 4% swr. My understanding is this is based on stock market returns. Being here, in this forum, suggests you are open to other types of investments that, to date, have not correlated with stock market trends. My p2p money is certainly fairing better than my isa this year. If the slow and steady fixed rate return type p2p exist when I'm considering retirement ( your ratesetters and zopas) then periods when the market drops could be managed with less hassle than for previous generations without these types of options. You would usually be required to have a large cash holding, earning next to nothing, to ride out any "crashes" in the market when on drawdown. Now with, say, ratesetter you can access about a quarter of your cash in the five year market over any year period. Your cash holding therefore does not need to be so great and so returns should be at a more considerable level year after year. I am personally aiming for 25 times my predicted spending habits. No doubt the fear will kick in when I get nearer and I will up the number again. I'm currently reading Martin Ford's The rise of the robots. Worth a read. Its about autonomy/ A.I replacing the human workforce over the next few decades. No one can predict the future. Circumstances. Expected rates of return can all change. I wasn't just the referring to the job title - I was referring to the situation around it too . I don't deem myself to be retired as I am not someone who just lumps money into an account goes and plays golf and lives off the interest that this brings , as John says there may well be a time when this occurs but that is not here yet - probably not the golf bit though !
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james
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Post by james on Sept 18, 2015 13:28:44 GMT
while Wade Pfau (who is a leader in retirement research) has stated 3% but is arguing that 1.5%-2% SWRs might be the reality. It's easy to see what Wade Pfau is suggesting today because he keeps updated numbers on his retirement income dashboard. At present he's suggesting 4.7%, 5.31% or 6.02% for those using Guyton's rules alone. For a 30 year retirement period and increasing with inflation except when the rules say not. He's said that above 6% can be fine, notably after a stock market crash. Yet at the peak of a market 3% or lower would be the appropriate sort of level due to the expectation of a large drop soon after retiring. At least, if the money is left in equities. Those of us using P2P are perhaps trying to sidestep that particular issue. One issue with the low-ball numbers that you're using is that they ignore recent research in how to increase the withdrawing rate, which for the US increases the safe withdrawal rate from the 4.25% or so of the Trinity study to over 6% with Guyton and other rules. What actually matters is people understanding where those numbers come from and what affects them, so they can use sensible numbers for their own particular situation and time of retirement. For the UK the state pension system is a key factor, notably for those at the lower end of the needed income range. Gradually becomes less significant as desired income increases so investments have to provide more of it.
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james
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Post by james on Sept 18, 2015 13:52:25 GMT
Interestingly, the research has shown how important taking an annuity can be, at least for a fraction of the capital pool. Interestingly some people don't mention that it refers to deferred income annuities, not standard annuities. There are currently no deferred income annuities available in the UK annuity market. The key characteristic of a deferred income annuity is that it pays no income at all until a particular age is reached, so they can be relatively cheap to buy while providing protected income for the longer life cases. They are a potentially very interesting product, if any were available and if pricing was sensible. This is just as the UK is allowing retirees to not take annuities. The UK abolished the requirement to buy an annuity when Alternatively Secured Pensions were introduced around ten years ago. Successive governments since then have re-announced it and it finally seems that an increasing number of people are getting the idea and doing something sensible instead of buying annuities. For the UK the option that tends to make most sense isn't buying an annuity but deferring the state pension. That increases the state pension by 5.8% inflation-linked for life per year deferred. Or 10.4% for those who reach or reached state pension age before 6 April 2016. The actual effective rate depends on how long deferral is for because you have to provide for the foregone income while deferring but for any reasonable period it remains well above the 3.2% available today at 65 from inflation-linked annuities in the UK market. Those with much larger pots than the typical £50k or so won't be able to practically defer long enough with their whole pension pot, though. Standard annuities can potentially offer benefits. The trouble today is that they are very poor value for money and you're unlikely to recover the capital loss you take to buy the income. Just compare the huge hit you'd take with a standard inflation-linked annuity vs the Guyton rules - getting on for losing half of your capital for the same income level or half your income for the same purchase price. That's a lot of room for market volatility and uncertainty rather than taking the guaranteed capital loss by buying the annuity. And you can always buy the annuity later, say if your health takes a turn for the worse and enhanced annuities start to look like a good deal. One thing I tend to do is strongly advocate deferring the state pension. That's genuinely good value for money for those with normal health and no inheritance desire, paying out even more than the long term UK stock market return. One of the best investment buys that I know of.
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james
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Post by james on Sept 18, 2015 13:58:09 GMT
Whether you can earn inflation after tax on your portfolio in old age is another matter. I'd hope to beat that now, but when I'm 80?? Who knows how many marbles I will still have. Fortunately I have a pension as well so I don't need to take out 4%. The best marbles protection I know of today is deferring the state pension. The value for money is excellent. Later on, somewhere in the 80s age range, annuities can start to become a good deal for those in normal health, so if you still have your marbles then it might be a good option to buy around then.
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jonno
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nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Sept 18, 2015 14:25:41 GMT
I've come up with the perfect model for making sure I've got enough money to live off for the rest of my life: I'm going to commit suicide when the money runs out.
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james
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Post by james on Sept 18, 2015 14:29:27 GMT
But as I've said before I am a perma-bear prophet of doom so what do you expect! LOL, doom prophecies, of course. Though actually I check my own income plans to be sure that I don't go below my lowest income target with 0% investment return. That's minimum rather than target, though. Low-ball because you had asserted that the numbers were using the latest research, but you used only half of that research, the bit relating to investment returns, skipping the bit relating to increasing safe withdrawing rates. There's been good progress on understanding in both an at the moment it looks to me as though the safe withdrawing rate group are well ahead of the more pessimistic stock market returns group. What I really hope is that our discussion gets some more people curious about this and into reading what Wade Pfau and others write or say in their interviews. It's pretty interesting stuff for those into retirement planning, as each of us clearly is! Perhaps also those into financial independence. The trade-offs are quite interesting because the higher you set the targets, the later you retire and you can't ever get back those unretired years.
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james
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Post by james on Sept 18, 2015 14:39:28 GMT
I've come up with the perfect model for making sure I've got enough money to live off for the rest of my life: I'm going to commit suicide when the money runs out. While I don't recommend that approach, be sure that you do your research. Carbon dioxide is a recommended route for the humane killing of lab mice (or those caught in glue traps) and human physiology is similar in this respect. It's pretty hard to actually run out of money when you have a state pension, though, and means tested benefits. So you can cut short your research now and concentrate on living a good life.
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jonno
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nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Sept 18, 2015 14:56:12 GMT
I've come up with the perfect model for making sure I've got enough money to live off for the rest of my life: I'm going to commit suicide when the money runs out. While I don't recommend that approach, be sure that you do your research. Carbon dioxide is a recommended route for the humane killing of lab mice (or those caught in glue traps) and human physiology is similar in this respect. It's pretty hard to actually run out of money when you have a state pension, though, and means tested benefits. So you can cut short your research now and concentrate on living a good life. Thanks james, you're right of course (about the good life, not the CO2 thing). I'll take your advice I think.
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Investor
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Post by Investor on Sept 18, 2015 16:58:00 GMT
I've come up with the perfect model for making sure I've got enough money to live off for the rest of my life: I'm going to commit suicide when the money runs out. I agree it would be so much easier to do financial planning if you knew when you'd kick the bucket ... but suicide invalidates all those life policies so better to hire a contract killer. This website www.deathclock.com is a simple tool that will assist in calculating this for you, if you prefer a more detailled analysis try www.deathclock.cc/ I am not willing to warrant any accuracy, in fact it is amazing I can write this post given my untimely demise on the Tuesday before last
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jonah
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Post by jonah on Sept 18, 2015 20:25:51 GMT
I agree it would be so much easier to do financial planning if you knew when you'd kick the bucket ... but suicide invalidates all those life policies so better to hire a contract killer. This website www.deathclock.com is a simple tool that will assist in calculating this for you, if you prefer a more detailled analysis try www.deathclock.cc/ I am not willing to warrant any accuracy, in fact it is amazing I can write this post given my untimely demise on the Tuesday before last I like the fact that the second of these estimates TOD to the second.... All 1.6m of them apparently in my case. As I don't expect to live anywhere near that long it was somewhat amusing.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Sept 18, 2015 21:50:49 GMT
I've come up with the perfect model for making sure I've got enough money to live off for the rest of my life: I'm going to commit suicide when the money runs out. I agree it would be so much easier to do financial planning if you knew when you'd kick the bucket ... but suicide invalidates all those life policies so better to hire a contract killer. Like those action films when attacked by an awful enemy the rookie is told to save the last bullet for himself, you'd need to save the last £5k * to pay for the contract killer. * contract killer rates may vary
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Post by brokenbiscuits on Sept 19, 2015 21:53:49 GMT
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