bg
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Post by bg on Sept 16, 2015 12:48:07 GMT
Apologies, I should have included a to convey my dubious attempt at humour. In the scenario you outline, my main worry would be how it was Grandma Ethel came to invest her £10k life savings in the QAA (ie. Are the risk warnings clear enough? Should there be a specific "I realise theoretically I could lose every penny of this" check box?). Overall I think the issue is that the QAA is trying to please two completely different demographics with two completely different attitudes to risk. The first group (of which I'm part) is happy to invest a portion of their net worth in P2P loans across a wide range of risk profiles and sees the QAA as a handy place to keep their idle "awaiting investment" funds earning a few pennies; a provision fund capable of covering 5% bad debt is so much better than anything else out there, it feels bullet-proof by comparison. The second group is seeking to squeeze a few more basis points out of their cash deposits and regards going even slightly beyond the FSCS compensation limit with one bank as a risk. It's always going to be hard to keep both audiences happy. I'm actually happy with the risk, i know its low (I have £25k in it and would increase by multiples if there was capacity). I just think there should be more details on how the account operates and what happens in a nasty default scenario. This is a long thread but imagine how long it would be if there was a loss on the QAA and AC were taking their time thinking about how to apportion the loss (of course I expect most of us on this forum to have exited the QAA by that point). Best clarify how things work upfront.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Sept 16, 2015 12:48:32 GMT
The QAA banner on the website clearly states "Provision fund aiming for 5% bad debt coverage", which I'm happy to take at face value given my exposure is limited to my idle cash. So you would put new money into the QAA even if it contained a known defaulted loan? Yes, certainly. But my investment in the QAA is never going to be more than about 5% of 10% of 20% of my net worth, and will only remain there until someone in AC manages to remember how to go about getting a new loan to draw down.
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niceguy37
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Post by niceguy37 on Sept 16, 2015 12:48:49 GMT
May I enquire: Does this means it might offer any monitoring event loans at a discount in order to exit, or will the QAA rely on algorithm priority over the luckless MLIA lenders in order to exit? No it will not offer loan units at a discount. QAA takes absolute priority at par sales, GBBA/GEIA get some level of priority over MLIA at par sales. MLIA can bypass both with discounts. With respect, I would question whether it is "fair" that the QAA takes "absolute priority".
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Post by chris on Sept 16, 2015 12:50:40 GMT
For the most part going forward it probably wouldn't invest in those loans. The only loans that are going to be over 12% are likely to be those with security that doesn't match the GBBA criteria or really large loans where there's a liquidity premium charged to the borrower so there should be plenty to go around. If there's a monitoring event then it'll pull out of those loans. Yesterday, andrewholgate sidestepped this question and today you have fobbed it off. It creates a very bad impression of Assetz Capital when you deny lenders the chance to invest in loans at 15% or 18%, and cream off over half the interest. You don't need to, the provision fund will build-up almost as fast with the large 10% and 11% loans. "For the most part going forward it probably wouldn't invest in those loans." Lets start going forward now!I used those words as I don't make pricing decisions and therefore cannot guarantee it, but from the agreed internal pricing structure my understanding is that it shouldn't ever happen in future loans.
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Post by chris on Sept 16, 2015 12:53:09 GMT
No it will not offer loan units at a discount. QAA takes absolute priority at par sales, GBBA/GEIA get some level of priority over MLIA at par sales. MLIA can bypass both with discounts. With respect, I would question whether it is "fair" that the QAA takes "absolute priority". As an active MLIA user where my life savings currently reside I'm happy with the priority system and how we plan to use it with the QAA. I know there's not much happening at the moment and there are a lot of changes but can we see them in action first before discussing perceived issues that may or may not be relevant in the real world.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Sept 16, 2015 13:04:24 GMT
Don't forget the account isn't 100% liquid so it would take time for there to be a run on the account of several days at a minimum. That gives plenty of opportunity for us to suspend withdrawals, etc. That is a good point and might mitigate some of the problems which I think that this policy creates. The alternative end of the spectrum would be that if 1% of the holdings are in defaulted loans that all lenders have to retain 1% in the account. That seems silly on a liquidity account to begin with but how does that work as other investors put funds in? Do they then have to hold 1% of their funds as well? What if someone invests just as the default occurs vs someone who's had their funds in the account for a month? It is simple, there is a database timestamp for when the loan was suspended anyone investing before that is hit with the 1%, anyone after isn't. Some will say "it isn't fair I was about to click", but that seems to be a defensible position. An easy solution would be to move 1% of everyone's holding to a new account the Provision Fund Protected Default Loan Account (PFPDLA) which also holds the problem loan. There is a third way, which I think would be easiest to understand and implement, and it is used by other provision funds. The fund should buy the problem loan straight away and it becomes an asset of the provision fund. We're also talking about defaults but to Granny Ethol what should really matter is losses. There you need not only the loan value to exceed the PF balance but the total losses to exceed the PF balance. The risks are present but should still be small, but that is why you're paid interest after all. I am not worried that I will lose money. I think it isn't highly likely, but as I don't know the size of the provision fund and the maximum holdings in any of the accounts I don't know. Should something along these lines happen I would expect that I might be able to exit in time. I do think there is a risk to AC's reputation with possibly the regulator, the press and forums such as this. It also leaves me with a somewhat vague feeling about how things work.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Sept 16, 2015 13:05:01 GMT
At the moment ... only healthy loans are for sale... chris: Last week you thought that loans with monitoring events -- as opposed to loans with credit events -- would be re-admitted to the Aftermarket on Monday (i.e. two days ago). Is it still the plan to restart trading in those loans ASAP? Or has there been a change of thinking? An update would be appreciated.
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Post by Butch Cassidy on Sept 16, 2015 13:11:19 GMT
So not only are MLIA lenders at the back of the queue to buy current loans they are also forced into offering a MINIMUM 1% discount to gain priority in sales as well? Yes. Giving up something in the region of 1 month's interest in order to gain PRIORITY of sale is not a big ask. . That all depends on who you are asking/imposing it on. [On FC you pay the platform 0.25% on any sale and many are paying multiple percent premiums just to buy into loans. . Premiums are only being paid because they have allowed automated bots to hoover up anything attractive & then resell it at a premium, which is why investors on AC asks for this NOT to be a feature on your SM, which I see now is also being (proposed to be) ignored. [On RS you can pay huge amounts to exit a loan early because they've built their market around loan terms. SS to invest in popular loans you don't get to read the loan documentation, you enter blind.. You already know this beforehand & accept or don’t use them accordingly. SS deal flow is impressive & liquidity is maintained largely due to there adherence to the KISS principle & willingness to have a lender focused attitude, potential lessons to be learnt there? [With the MLIA you are keeping the entire interest payment, earning larger returns, and have access to buying and selling for discounts and premiums when that feature is enabled. You get to review the loan documents up front, place hands off buy / sell instructions that then do the heavy lifting for you, even get to earn interest on your idle funds whilst they wait to be deployed. The down side is you don't get provision fund protection and you lose some liquidity at par value. Even then that second point is under continual review as we want to balance the market not cripple the MLIA. Have you reviewed loan 45 Leeds recently where you have already crippled the liquidity, largely due to the decision making & miscalculations of AC?
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sqh
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Before P2P, savers put a guinea in a piggy bank, now they smash the banks to become guinea pigs.
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Post by sqh on Sept 16, 2015 13:18:34 GMT
Yesterday, andrewholgate sidestepped this question and today you have fobbed it off. It creates a very bad impression of Assetz Capital when you deny lenders the chance to invest in loans at 15% or 18%, and cream off over half the interest. You don't need to, the provision fund will build-up almost as fast with the large 10% and 11% loans. "For the most part going forward it probably wouldn't invest in those loans." Lets start going forward now!I used those words as I don't make pricing decisions and therefore cannot guarantee it, but from the agreed internal pricing structure my understanding is that it shouldn't ever happen in future loans. OK chris, please tell me who is ultimately in charge of pricing decisions?
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Post by chris on Sept 16, 2015 13:24:30 GMT
At the moment ... only healthy loans are for sale... chris: Last week you thought that loans with monitoring events -- as opposed to loans with credit events -- would be re-admitted to the Aftermarket on Monday (i.e. two days ago). Is it still the plan to restart trading in those loans ASAP? Or has there been a change of thinking? An update would be appreciated. It's still planned but requires another coding change from me that I'm struggling to make remotely. I can wait 20 seconds for an email to send or a web page to refresh but when it's on each key press whilst trying to check things on our dev server it's a bit of a struggle. Next Monday at the latest but I'll try and find a way to connect properly before then.
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Post by chris on Sept 16, 2015 13:27:14 GMT
I used those words as I don't make pricing decisions and therefore cannot guarantee it, but from the agreed internal pricing structure my understanding is that it shouldn't ever happen in future loans. OK chris, please tell me who is ultimately in charge of pricing decisions? stuartassetzcapital
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Post by chris on Sept 16, 2015 13:40:00 GMT
[On FC you pay the platform 0.25% on any sale and many are paying multiple percent premiums just to buy into loans. . Premiums are only being paid because they have allowed automated bots to hoover up anything attractive & then resell it at a premium, which is why investors on AC asks for this NOT to be a feature on your SM, which I see now is also being (proposed to be) ignored. How are we ignoring that? I presume you don't know how the aftermarket divides sales amongst demand. SS have just copied that algorithm to a degree with how their pre-bids are allocated so if you invest there you should be familiar. Essentially there is no fastest finger first, the main reason bots are so effective on FC, and purchases / sales are split in favour of smaller investors over large. [On RS you can pay huge amounts to exit a loan early because they've built their market around loan terms. SS to invest in popular loans you don't get to read the loan documentation, you enter blind.. You already know this beforehand & accept or don’t use them accordingly. SS deal flow is impressive & liquidity is maintained largely due to there adherence to the KISS principle & willingness to have a lender focused attitude, potential lessons to be learnt there? We're going to have to disagree on why SS are currently successful. They've been very good at copying ideas from others and have put together a compelling case for the early adopters but their offering is not at all retail friendly, they're starting to add complexity now they're getting scale and they have to work around their problems, and their loan book is very young and untested. We do keep an eye on our competition and learn from them where we can but no one platform has hit on a magic formula yet. [With the MLIA you are keeping the entire interest payment, earning larger returns, and have access to buying and selling for discounts and premiums when that feature is enabled. You get to review the loan documents up front, place hands off buy / sell instructions that then do the heavy lifting for you, even get to earn interest on your idle funds whilst they wait to be deployed. The down side is you don't get provision fund protection and you lose some liquidity at par value. Even then that second point is under continual review as we want to balance the market not cripple the MLIA. Have you reviewed loan 45 Leeds recently where you have already crippled the liquidity, largely due to the decision making & miscalculations of AC? Leeds is currently suspended due to a launch bug in the MLIA that needs correcting but which I'm struggling to do whilst on a poor internet connection on holiday. It'll be tradable again soon. But how is that related to the rest of the discussion?
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Post by Butch Cassidy on Sept 16, 2015 13:54:45 GMT
Premiums are only being paid because they have allowed automated bots to hoover up anything attractive & then resell it at a premium, which is why investors on AC asked for this NOT to be a feature on your SM, which I see now is also being (proposed to be) ignored. How are we ignoring that? ? Because allowing premiums to be charged incentivises those with the deepest pockets &/or bot access to buy up the most attractive loans & then reoffer them at a premium, whilst still giving an attractive buyer rate. Everyone pays extra for the loan parts that would otherwise be available at the issued rate. This problem simply doesn't arise whilst all sales are at par, with discounts allowed to increase liquidity or aid swift exit. You already know this beforehand & accept or don’t use them accordingly. SS deal flow is impressive & liquidity is maintained largely due to there adherence to the KISS principle & willingness to have a lender focused attitude, potential lessons to be learnt there? [We're going to have to disagree on why SS are currently successful. They've been very good at copying ideas from others and have put together a compelling case for the early adopters but their offering is not at all retail friendly, they're starting to add complexity now they're getting scale and they have to work around their problems, and their loan book is very young and untested. We do keep an eye on our competition and learn from them where we can but no one platform has hit on a magic formula yet. I agree but they are not going backwards or disadvantaging certain classes of investors whilst prioritising others either, treating everyone fairly & equitably is always a good starting point IMO. Have you reviewed loan 45 Leeds recently where you have already crippled the liquidity, largely due to the decision making & miscalculations of AC? [Leeds is currently suspended due to a launch bug in the MLIA that needs correcting but which I'm struggling to do whilst on a poor internet connection on holiday. It'll be tradable again soon. But how is that related to the rest of the discussion? Because you could both increase liquidity in the Leeds loan & reduce the demand pressure on other current loans by making it eligible to be purchased by the both the bespoke & cash accounts?
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Post by chris on Sept 16, 2015 14:14:25 GMT
Because allowing premiums to be charged incentivises those with the deepest pockets &/or bot access to buy up the most attractive loans & then reoffer them at a premium, whilst still giving an attractive buyer rate. Everyone pays extra for the loan parts that would otherwise be available at the issued rate. This problem simply doesn't arise whilst all sales are at par, with discounts allowed to increase liquidity or aid swift exit. Everyone can buy their fill at par as the loan draws down. If someone subsequently comes along and buys up all the loan units, providing liquidity for the sellers, and then makes a small margin by selling them on and providing liquidity for buyers then that's not a bad thing IMHO. If they sell for a premium they won't benefit from the accounts being able to invest and they won't be able to charge more than the market will bear. They could also be stuck holding a large portion of the loan if it defaults or is unpopular. It may also mean you get to exit a loan at par or at a smaller discount than otherwise because someone else is willing to provide that liquidity for a fee to whomever they sell the loan unit on to. I agree but they are not going backwards or disadvantaging certain classes of investors whilst prioritising others either, treating everyone fairly & equitably is always a good starting point IMO. Their fairness algorithm just disadvantaged larger investors in favour of smaller investors. Their underwriting model pays a premium to those providing liquidity to smaller investors. If their loans start defaulting it'll be those that buy and hold instead of buy and sell or underwrite. Every model has a balance between different types of investor, you just don't personally like where we've chosen to balance things. Because you could both increase liquidity in the Leeds loan & reduce the demand pressure on other current loans by making it eligible to be purchased by the both the bespoke & cash accounts? We can't accept Leeds into the GBBA without issuing a new series 2 GBBA and changing the investment criteria. This is also unrelated to this new software release.
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Post by Butch Cassidy on Sept 16, 2015 14:51:16 GMT
Because allowing premiums to be charged incentivises those with the deepest pockets &/or bot access to buy up the most attractive loans & then reoffer them at a premium, whilst still giving an attractive buyer rate. Everyone pays extra for the loan parts that would otherwise be available at the issued rate. This problem simply doesn't arise whilst all sales are at par, with discounts allowed to increase liquidity or aid swift exit. [Everyone can buy their fill at par as the loan draws down.. That's just not true, did investors get what they asked for in Fl** C** or London Law - if only - those attractive rates are the very desirable ones that will be targeted. [ If someone subsequently comes along and buys up all the loan units, providing liquidity for the sellers, and then makes a small margin by selling them on and providing liquidity for buyers then that's not a bad thing IMHO. If they sell for a premium they won't benefit from the accounts being able to invest and they won't be able to charge more than the market will bear. They could also be stuck holding a large portion of the loan if it defaults or is unpopular. It may also mean you get to exit a loan at par or at a smaller discount than otherwise because someone else is willing to provide that liquidity for a fee to whomever they sell the loan unit on to.. Buying unwanted loan units is a completely different thing they will only be able to be flipped at a profit over time as new buyers enter or rates move to make old rates more attractive. [ I agree but they are not going backwards or disadvantaging certain classes of investors whilst prioritising others either, treating everyone fairly & equitably is always a good starting point IMO. Their fairness algorithm just disadvantaged larger investors in favour of smaller investors. Their underwriting model pays a premium to those providing liquidity to smaller investors. If their loans start defaulting it'll be those that buy and hold instead of buy and sell or underwrite. Every model has a balance between different types of investor, you just don't personally like where we've chosen to balance things.. What I don't like is the rules being changed part way through the game & simply being imposed, so lenders are left trying to fathom out what game is actually being played. [ Because you could both increase liquidity in the Leeds loan & reduce the demand pressure on other current loans by making it eligible to be purchased by the both the bespoke & cash accounts? We can't accept Leeds into the GBBA without issuing a new series 2 GBBA and changing the investment criteria. This is also unrelated to this new software release. So why can't it be included in the cash account?
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