grahamg
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Post by grahamg on Nov 24, 2015 16:08:50 GMT
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Nov 24, 2015 16:18:42 GMT
e.g Oak***** H********e on FK.
Borrower:"Dear Investor
Unfortunately due to circumstances out of our control O H Ltd went into administration following the withdrawal of factoring facilities, after Herefordshire County Council in their wisdom decided to pay far below the cost price for community care - and as such the industry in that sector is now in turmoil, with many other companies finding themselves in a similar position or pulling out their services altogether."
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Post by ranjeb on Nov 24, 2015 17:28:53 GMT
Does it say where the residents can go?
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Nov 24, 2015 22:35:49 GMT
So where do we all go when we need care then? The population is growing and ageing, so the care sector should be a long term booming industry.
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Post by ablrateandy on Nov 24, 2015 22:41:46 GMT
I think if you pick your niche (people who can afford to pay for themselves without reliance on the state) then it is a sector that will be very lucrative. We'll see an increasing number of people spending a lot more of their savings on care home provision rather than leaving it to children.
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ribs
Probably not James Marshall
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Post by ribs on Nov 24, 2015 22:55:49 GMT
So where do we all go when we need care then? The population is growing and ageing, so the care sector should be a long term booming industry Long term, sure, I don't see why not. But as with everything else, there will be bumps in the road. I don't think many predicted today's price of oil, for example.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 25, 2015 9:13:34 GMT
Hmm... A futures market?
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pom
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Post by pom on Nov 25, 2015 10:25:07 GMT
I think if you pick your niche (people who can afford to pay for themselves without reliance on the state) then it is a sector that will be very lucrative. We'll see an increasing number of people spending a lot more of their savings on care home provision rather than leaving it to children. Well if they have savings they HAVE to spend them - the threshold is something like 22.5k, over which you get no help at all (except perhaps an initial 6-8weeks free), under that I believe it's a sliding scale. And the difference in what you get is shocking - I had 2 members of my family go into care homes at the end of 2013. My aunt's was a temporary stay when coming out of hospital as she wasn't going to be fit enough to return to her previous home. They naturally sent her to the cheapest place they could (halfway across the county), and it was just GRIM (no mistreatment, but the staff clearly couldn't cope or keep up) - we were desperate to get her moved out as quickly as possible, especially when they told us she was going to have to start paying £399 a week beyond the initial period. Just visiting there briefly was more than I could tolerate, tho having been in and out of mental hospitals a lot of her life she was pretty calm about it all and perfectly happy to wait for them to find her a council flat !! Then my grandfather ended up having to move to one also - and I think was really dreading it having seen where she'd been, but fortunately was able to go straight into the private sector and paid £600/wk for a place that was pretty much like a hotel (he did insist on their smallest/cheapest room mind), and had the staff wrapped round his finger keeping his booze levels stocked. He didn't like having to be there but at least it was a lot more civilised. So in my mind if you have to pay for it in the first place then it's definitely worth spending that bit more if you can.
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rogerbu
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Post by rogerbu on Nov 25, 2015 11:06:28 GMT
Same experience but having to pay £1000 per week as no other 'nice' homes available in the area - Wimborne. However the care is excellent
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pom
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Post by pom on Nov 25, 2015 11:27:30 GMT
Yeah I think some of the rooms were either more than that already or are now - I see his place now quotes from £750/wk which is quite a jump given he only vacated the room 14mths ago (or could just mean his room isn't avail). Supply/demand I guess.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Nov 25, 2015 13:20:26 GMT
So where do we all go when we need care then? The population is growing and ageing, so the care sector should be a long term booming industry Long term, sure, I don't see why not. But as with everything else, there will be bumps in the road. I don't think many predicted today's price of oil, for example. Care home places really are completely different to a barrels of oil.
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ribs
Probably not James Marshall
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Post by ribs on Nov 26, 2015 20:51:00 GMT
Long term, sure, I don't see why not. But as with everything else, there will be bumps in the road. I don't think many predicted today's price of oil, for example. Care home places really are completely different to a barrels of oil. Indeed. But you are totally missing my point...
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james
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Post by james on Nov 26, 2015 21:12:14 GMT
Increasing demand is inevitable, though it's probably possible to defer a bit if more at-home care can be provided. Private seems likely to do well, council, seems likely to increasingly switch to shipping people to parts of the country where property and labour costs are lower. Labour costs are a major part of the total cost so cheap labour is critical, which often means immigrants from other EU countries.
The major listed care home providers have a lot of debt and can get into trouble if income drops even a little due to their leverage. Not so for say the three care homes being built by the Albion VCT out of equity, with a normally no borrowing policy. In that situation lower fees mean lower earnings per share but no debt leverage trouble at all. I expect places like that to survive and thrive without issues, particularly when in areas with high incomes where self-payers are likely to be plentiful and can indulge in a place near to where they have been living.
For the public sector places this seems like a potential new industry for the NE of England and the Welsh valleys where land and labour costs are relatively low.
One thing I did a while ago was fill out a survey that was mentioned in the pension reforms document. The first item I listed was a desire to pay for care home fees out of my remaining pension pot using an immediate needs annuity that would be blocked by the GAD limit preventing access to all of the capital even though the pension money would no longer be needed because life expectancy after entering a care home is only about two to three years. The reforms removed the limit. There are going to be a lot of defined contribution pots of quite substantial size in the future and that should eventually lead to lots more self-funders. Will take quite a while for a group with ubiquitous defined contribution pots to reach the age at which they need care homes, though. Too long to save some of the listed providers with their debt costs.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Nov 26, 2015 22:15:15 GMT
Care home places really are completely different to a barrels of oil. Indeed. But you are totally missing my point... And you miss mine.
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Post by reeknralf on Nov 27, 2015 10:33:43 GMT
Long term, sure, I don't see why not. But as with everything else, there will be bumps in the road. I don't think many predicted today's price of oil, for example. Care home places really are completely different to a barrels of oil. I've often wanted a catch-all term for this sort of logical fallacy. You find it so much on forums, and it would be nice to have a quick way of dismissing it. I say babies are like mars bars, in that if you eat too many, you get fat. Some sophist immediately replies, babies are completely different to mars bars. We have 'straw man' and ' ad hominem' for fallacious arguments, but seem to lack terms for common fallacious refutations.
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