adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 20, 2016 9:23:37 GMT
Is there a lot of point in diversifying to reduce platform risk...?
Excluding TrustBuddy-style fraud and the odd too-small-to-thrive platform, what's the single biggest risk factor to platforms? Simple - global economic conditions. And they're going to hit everybody, large and small, PF or no PF.
Am I wrong in this...? (Show your working)
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ben
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Post by ben on Jan 20, 2016 9:48:39 GMT
In economic downturn all platforms will have issues and will be hit hard but so will stock shares etc. The main risk to platforms if you ignore the economic risk (as would effect all and you could go on for ever with that) to me are:-
Fraud Poor evaluation of current value of security Poor control of recovering bad loans Over lending Unrealistic objectives i.e loan to build 8 houses no planning permission yet loaning full amount in one go
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Post by westonkevRS on Jan 20, 2016 10:03:53 GMT
I don't disagree with the other risks. However my #1 concern
1) Platform failure due to operational losses (i.e. never getting to profitability and running out of cash) is for me the biggest danger. And this will be exasperated in a recession with less lending and lender-led liquidity reduction.
Perhaps capital investors will get bored when the growth and unicorn valuations don't happen, and simply turn off the tap.
Mitigated in that capital should be recoverable ifa robust run-off plan is in place, but this can't be proven until the proverbial hits.
Kevin.
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huxs
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Post by huxs on Jan 20, 2016 10:30:06 GMT
I don't disagree with the other risks. However my #1 concern 1) Platform failure due to operational losses (i.e. never getting to profitability and running out of cash) is for me the biggest danger. And this will be exasperated in a recession with less lending and lender-led liquidity reduction. Perhaps capital investors will get bored when the growth and unicorn valuations don't happen, and simply turn off the tap. Mitigated in that capital should be recoverable ifa robust run-off plan is in place, but this can't be proven until the proverbial hits. Kevin. Totally agree how many of the current P2P platforms are making a profit? yes the market is still growing and yes the existing lending market dominated by traditional banks is huge but how much of this business is really going to move over to P2P platforms at rates that are going to keep investors interested. I personally will not touch anything under 6% on any organisation not covered by the FCA's deposit guarantee, which I think is where the largest growth could be for P2P platforms to eat the Banks lunch.
I am starting to worry that my desire to diversification across many platforms is actually going to result in me almost guaranteeing I will be using the platform that is wound up because it just cannot get sufficient business. Granted this will be only a small portion of my portfolio but maybe soon I will need to think more carefully about the long term survivability of the platforms I use and move appropriately.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 20, 2016 11:00:55 GMT
I am starting to worry that my desire to diversification across many platforms is actually going to result in me almost guaranteeing I will be using the platform that is wound up because it just cannot get sufficient business. Yep. I've got money on four P2P sites and two crowdfunded-property sites. Of those, there's really only one that I see a vaguely realistic threat in. There's a few others that I've held back from, though, because of slight question marks in my head. And, at the same time, that little voice says "Like the returns, but think platform risk! Diversify! A lot of eggs in one basket!"
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ben
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Post by ben on Jan 20, 2016 11:06:12 GMT
I am starting to worry that my desire to diversification across many platforms is actually going to result in me almost guaranteeing I will be using the platform that is wound up because it just cannot get sufficient business. Yep. I've got money on four P2P sites and two crowdfunded-property sites. Of those, there's really only one that I see a vaguely realistic threat in. There's a few others that I've held back from, though, because of slight question marks in my head. And, at the same time, that little voice says "Like the returns, but think platform risk! Diversify! A lot of eggs in one basket!" I am probably in too many although most of my money is in 5 of the bigger ones and two of the crowd funding ones. I have smaller amounts in several of the other sites, one of which is probably at risk through to lack of business, but then if you plan on keeping small the costs are not that much so they still might be making enough profit to keep going.
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Jan 20, 2016 11:29:48 GMT
I am currently invested in 8 platforms. SS dominates my investment, the rest share a small portion each. I am looking to diversify more especially to balance my lending on SS (hoping to bring down the overall percentage). I can understand that being part of many platforms increases the likelihood to hit on the one that fails, but I think doing our best DD on the platforms themselves helps to reduce this.
In relation to this, is there a place where we can look for the financials of the platforms themselves?
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Post by vithca on Jan 20, 2016 11:33:12 GMT
In relation to this, is there a place where we can look for the financials of the platforms themselves? beta.companieshouse.gov.uk has the last published accounts but some of the platforms are too new to be listed.
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locutus
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Post by locutus on Jan 20, 2016 11:38:04 GMT
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jonah
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Post by jonah on Jan 20, 2016 20:36:40 GMT
Different platforms for different asset types, as hopefully they won't all correlate.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 21, 2016 8:53:57 GMT
I am currently invested in 8 platforms. SS dominates my investment, the rest share a small portion each. I am looking to diversify more especially to balance my lending on SS (hoping to bring down the overall percentage). Shouldn't it be as simple as "I'm happy to have a maximum of £x in this platform", rather than anything more complex? If you're uncomfortable with the amount you've got in SS, then putting more into other platforms, to dilute the %age, is an artificial psychological prop, isn't it? We can find their filed accounts, just the same as any other limited company. www.duedil.com/company/08244913/lendy-ltd
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2016 8:56:47 GMT
The platforms that worry me are those that are not demonstrating regular new loans while developing more and more complicated software solutions or spending big money on marketing.
This appears to come about when the first wash of youth has ended and someone decided that "we need a strategic change", this of course does two things 1) stimulates a second large cash burn and 2) distracts from the core cash generation process.
I guess just about every platform has to do this in the business cycle but that would be the period when I would be concerned.
Right now of my five platforms, one is deep in this process and one is skirting the edge of the "strategic change" element.
Just to be clear FC has now stepped beyond this point and is moving into a market dominant position (which opens it up to all kinds of interesting legislation).
Clearly if the market conditions means that core cash generation becomes impossible the clever business will the one that manages to survive by either a) a good balance sheet or b) a cash cow element in the business mix that will ensure that it keeps ticking over
If I was selecting a new portal I would be using these as yardsticks rather than say, their speed of answering the phone
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Jan 21, 2016 12:07:29 GMT
Is there a lot of point in diversifying to reduce platform risk...? Excluding TrustBuddy-style fraud and the odd too-small-to-thrive platform, what's the single biggest risk factor to platforms? Simple - global economic conditions. And they're going to hit everybody, large and small, PF or no PF. Am I wrong in this...? (Show your working) I somewhat agree with the thrust of your argument, but:- I don't think that you can ignore TrustBuddy Style fraud; fraud is one of the reasons I diversify. Not just by the platform founders, there may be a rogue employee, or their systems may be weak and get hacked and all available cash withdrawn or something I haven't thought of yet. As others have said I don't think that you can ignore too small to thrive, as we don't yet know what it will be that might stop a currently thriving platform (death illness amongst senior directors, divorce, mental breakdown, change in legislation, new competition). Also whilst a significant global downturn might reduce my investment significantly (perhaps 20%) some platforms might survive that, whilst others won't. I will not be happy with a 20% loss in a year, but I accept that it will happen eventually if I have annual returns around 10% the rest of the time. And of those platforms that do fail, the resolution methods seem to be different. Some of these might work better than others. Having said that there is no point diversifying into a platform that seems more likely than others to be exposed to such risks. I am in 7, 2 of which I am reducing at the moment.
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Post by gusgorilla on Jan 26, 2016 0:29:41 GMT
I am a relative newb and have been signing up for a wide variety with smallish amounts for now to practice and really get to know the platforms before committing more. In my enthusiasm I nearly came unstuck on one site that looked fine at first glance but turned out to be very dodgy once I started engaging with it:
o Refused to divulge who would take over the loans if the site went bust.
o Refused to give any details of loan security, trying to use the data protection act as an excuse for their complete lack of information.
o Glib, evasive and dismissive when asked direct questions on their section of the forum. The message seemed to be "just trust us it will be fine". Given that some of its numerous directors have been heavily involved with dodgy banks I do not feel inclined to do that.
o Had a website built from a modified blogging platform, marked as beta test software, riddled with bugs and completely opaque and incomprehensible in its operation. At one point it looked like a faulty autoinvest had trapped all my money in the site, but after some fiddling I managed to find a way to get most of it out. Some of it is still trapped but I'm hoping to free it up in a few days and get out without loss.
So in future I will be much more wary. Diversifying to mitigate the effects of platform failure seems a good plan but so is avoiding platforms that are potentially fraudulent, easily hacked, incompetent or lazy.
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webwiz
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Post by webwiz on Jan 26, 2016 8:01:28 GMT
.. what's the single biggest risk factor to platforms? Simple - global economic conditions. And they're going to hit everybody, large and small, PF or no PF. Am I wrong in this...? (Show your working) Doesn't the same logic apply to shares? The advice is always to diversify. If for no other reason they are not all going to collapse at the same time so after a first loss you might have time to liquidate the others.
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